three days fasting in the desert will do it

Which one?

1 lb ground beef

5 eggs

Lil salt pepper garlic

Meal

The Dynastic Cycle and the Fourth Turning are all basically the same thing. It's built into civilization, regardless of era or culture.

There are debt/money growth cycles, law/bureaucracy growth cycles, and periods of reset for both of them.

During the growth phase, debt accumulates, and laws build upon laws as bureaucrats become bloated and detached. Even well-meaning people in power can't fix it; every attempt to fix things just adds another layer of debt and legal complexity.

And then after a long enough time, it blows up. It could be slow or it could be fast, but it gets fucking rekt. It could be a lost war, a major internal revolution, or a slow massive decline and then a major populist democratically-elected landslide pivot.

The new government emerges, as order out of chaos, with elements of authoritarianism. The ideal scenario is that this newfound unity is enough to create change in the right direction, and then decentralize itself to re-establish rule of law and individual rights. The more common scenario, however, is that this newfound unity is not let go by those who claimed it, and it leads to authorianism/communism/fascism and decades of problems. In other words, the revolution against the decaying chaos is easy, but sticking the landing toward the re-emergence of freedom and productivity is the hard part.

That's why nothing stops this train. We're in the debt cycle rotation/reset, and eventually the bureaucratic rotation/reset as well. It takes billions of dollars to build a thousand feet of high-speed rail in the USA. Europe flails around on energy optics. Politicians become satire. Japan is stuck in yield curve control. This can last a long time, but the tailspin is nearly irrecoverable.

Incrementalism doesn't work at this phase. The event horizon is passed. Rather, the focus becomes on what order will emerge from the chaos. Is it rational order, or is it even worse than what came before?

The answer to that question, is what people have a big part in shaping.

The Dynastic Cycle and the Fourth Turning are all basically the same thing. It's built into civilization, regardless of era or culture.

There are debt/money growth cycles, law/bureaucracy growth cycles, and periods of reset for both of them.

During the growth phase, debt accumulates, and laws build upon laws as bureaucrats become bloated and detached. Even well-meaning people in power can't fix it; every attempt to fix things just adds another layer of debt and legal complexity.

And then after a long enough time, it blows up. It could be slow or it could be fast, but it gets fucking rekt. It could be a lost war, a major internal revolution, or a slow massive decline and then a major populist democratically-elected landslide pivot.

The new government emerges, as order out of chaos, with elements of authoritarianism. The ideal scenario is that this newfound unity is enough to create change in the right direction, and then decentralize itself to re-establish rule of law and individual rights. The more common scenario, however, is that this newfound unity is not let go by those who claimed it, and it leads to authorianism/communism/fascism and decades of problems. In other words, the revolution against the decaying chaos is easy, but sticking the landing toward the re-emergence of freedom and productivity is the hard part.

That's why nothing stops this train. We're in the debt cycle rotation/reset, and eventually the bureaucratic rotation/reset as well. It takes billions of dollars to build a thousand feet of high-speed rail in the USA. Europe flails around on energy optics. Politicians become satire. Japan is stuck in yield curve control. This can last a long time, but the tailspin is nearly irrecoverable.

Incrementalism doesn't work at this phase. The event horizon is passed. Rather, the focus becomes on what order will emerge from the chaos. Is it rational order, or is it even worse than what came before?

The answer to that question, is what people have a big part in shaping.

A “6102”

The bill passed making gold illegal to hold.

Would immediately confiscate from the ETFs.

Start asking normies: why can’t you opt out of social security? 🤔

IMO, this is why they arrested Roger after all these years.

They don't like this sovereign individual thesis.

Perhaps

The permissiveness of leftist street gangs & crackdown on rightist street gangs strikes me as very similar to Weimar Germany (but with left & right reversed)

which would suggest a lead up to revolution

Sadly, I think there will be a Civil War in America within the next 10 years.

The American Revolution was a simple tax revolt.

The British Crown simply overplayed its ability to tax people living on another continent.

The Crown had other enemies that helped the revolvers win, but nothing helped them more than the physical distance.

The parallels to today are meaningful. Just as colonists asked why a tyrant an ocean away should extract value from the labor they did here, today I wonder why work I do entirely in cyberspace for people all over the world should be taxed by a group of tyrants in Washington D.C. Just like those colonists rejected the idea that agents of that tyrant should be allowed to suppress their speech and seize their property, I too wonder why agents of that tyrant should be allowed to surveil and censor all of my communications.

Revolution was the only answer then. A severance of the governing relationship. A new government. A new set of rules and rights.

Years later, on the basis that tyrants sought to dispossess them of their property rights, slaveholders in the American South sought the same solution to their problems. They lost, because they lacked the advantages their predecessors had of physical distance and opportunistic allies.

History tells you the good guys won both times (what are the odds) but a more sober analysis would point to the mega-political - technology + geography (+ climate + microbiology).

So the question, bitcoiners - are we going to win like the Colonies or lose like the South?

Either way, I can’t imagine we will escape this decade without war.