Bitcoin is both a convergent solution and a divergent problem

Michael Saylor’s bitcoin waterfall analogy:

Bitcoin is a waterfall moving capital from a 500T “gallon” mountain lake. 🌦️🏔️

Water naturally flows from an unstable, high potential energy state to a lower, energy efficient state via gravity. ⛷️

The world’s assets are doing the same by moving towards digital capital. 🌍

nostr:nprofile1qqs2xs05tluhtr6hpgsmqqxp04898gayjlyrjlexcrndv8j6el784xqpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujucm4wfex2mn59en8j6gpzamhxue69uhkummnw3ezuendwsh8w6t69e3xj7swe984k is engineering a dam & turbine to capture the turbulent kinetic energy released from the waterfall (volatility) and using it to light up a city (create shareholder value at $MSTR). ⚡️

https://youtu.be/u-NyIu1VGN0?si=fes1MY4XFQtkQH5Z

Michael Saylor can lower and raise the mNAV at $MSTR

The most intolerant wins: the dominance of the stubborn minority

E.g. #bitcoin

Nassim Taleb

Once Saylor figured out bitcoin he was worried he wouldn’t be able to buy enough I.e. scarcity

https://x.com/thebtctherapist/status/1814708363810267627?s=46

“We’re the only company that can actually create bonds backed by Bitcoin. That’s the big idea.”

— nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m Saylor

#MSTR vs others

https://bit.ly/48253HM

“If you own #MSTR, you’re my partner.”

- nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m

“#Bitcoin is the best use of proceeds maybe in the history of the capital markets.”

- nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m on issuing $21B of equity

That’s like 50k bitcoin annually or $3.6B annualized BTC gain. 30-50x multiple gets you get a $108B - $180B value then you tack on another $18B for the Bitcoin.

The operation is 6-10x NAV plus the reserves

If we have a 5% BTC yield in the quarter, that’s the same as acquiring 12500 bitcoin for our shareholders without dilution

If we were holding treasury bills at 0% a year it would trade at a 20x PE but we’re holding Bitcoin so that’s conservative (20 x 10% = 2x Premium)

If #bitcoin is growing at 30-50% CAGR then it’s not unreasonable for the stock to trade at 30-50x PE.

If $MSTR is accreting bitcoin at 6-10% CAGR then

30x10% is a 3x premium to NAV

50x10% is a 5x premium to NAV

https://www.youtube.com/live/TasvNr1gBGs?si=e_jd7BAvtVR9J6cf

nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m

nostr:note17jh2ufne9uh2e7zny8f4u3jy24x9gyv5h5z7uk842nk3yykf6ecqf89rym

“There’s a point of humility when you realize that maybe your brilliance was that someone else had a good idea, and to embrace the idea.”

- nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m

“People who are gifted, smart, and high energy, it's not their natural inclination to be able to embrace and accept things that are done on your behalf rather than by your active work.”

- Tom Gayner

“To be open to the idea of cloning, it requires you to be humble (release your ego)

You need to be willing to think ‘everyone is smarter than me, and so I should copy what works’”

- Mohnish Pabrai

Building trust and transparency with BTC principles

Analogy to an oil company that refines a crude commodity

$MSTR = Bitcoin Treasury Company (BTC)

What an interview with nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m

Likens $MSTR to Standard Oil, taking in “crude oil” and allowing it to be “refined” for institutions to use via convertible bonds, options, fixed income etc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eThjo9wYoF0

If $MSTR has $3.8B in debt with 226,500 #bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price could fall to $16,777 to pay back all their loans (if no one converted their debt into shares).

$MSTR shows us the assumed increase in share count from the convertible debt.

Unlike debt, these won’t have to be paid back if #bitcoin continues to go up and the holders decide to convert.