🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'The road to independence and autonomy from all kinds of systems is a journey that needs effort and time on your part. Bitcoin is the same.' -Bitcoin Friday
'Over the last year, the US Government borrowed approximately $99,802 per second.' -James Lavish
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before we start I want to share some deep knowledge:
'If, like many of us, you feel a bit taken aback by events of the past week in Bitcoin, you may be wondering about what you can do, practically, to maintain your ability to transact freely and to preserve your privacy.'
Great thread by Freddie New, worth your time: https://twitter.com/freddienew/status/1784218269542498318
22nd of April:
Swiss Bitcoiners to launch a petition for the National Bank to buy Bitcoin for its national reserves.
"By including Bitcoin in its reserves, Switzerland would mark its independence from the European Central Bank. Such a step would strengthen our neutrality."
They need over 100K signatures to trigger the vote. Technically, it's not a petition, but a Popular Initiative, which is quite different. This concise amendment allows the Swiss National Bank flexibility in implementation. The initiative aims to spark a debate about Switzerland's future amid global uncertainties, emphasizing sovereignty and neutrality.
But the Chairman of the Swiss National Bank said the following: "We have not yet decided that we want to invest in Bitcoin.
Currency reserves are international payments:
1. They have to be liquid.
2. They have to be sustainable.
3. And we have to be able to see and buy them." -Bitcoin Archive
➡️In 2023 I have said the following multiple times regarding politicians & Bitcoin: "My personal opinion. Be wary of politicians who promise to give you exactly what you want. Politicians are just politicians! Bitcoin doesn't need politicians, politicians need Bitcoin (and votes). Don't lose the plot. And stop larping! Stay humble & stack sats."
A lot of people on Bitcoin Twitter, telegram, and so on were larping and routing for RFK. jr.
Last week he made the following statement:
“I’m gonna put the entire US budget on blockchain", “Every American can look at every budget item in the entire budget, anytime they want, 24 hours a day.”
“We’re gonna have 300 million eyeballs on our budget!”
This kind of statement reveals he doesn't get any of this, does he? On February 24' he also mentioned that he is buying ETH for his kids. Time to study Bitcoin RFK or is it just another fiat politician like Javier Milei (yes I am still not convinced)? Trying to gather as much support as possible, then crawl back to central bankers if elected.
'If the government wants to publish real-time budgets they can already do this on their websites. The blockchain adds nothing to this. The problem is reporting, not storage. This is no different than saying the government will publish their budget to “the cloud”.'- Yan
➡️Bitcoin may be due for a surge, as the MVRV ratio dips below its 90-day average again.
Historically, this has led to a 67% gain on average.
➡️ 'BlackRock now holds 273,596 Bitcoin worth $18 billion for its spot Bitcoin ETF.
BlackRock's ETF holds 59,350 more bitcoin than MicroStrategy.' - Bitcoin Magazine
➡️ S&P 500 company Raymond James subsidiaries declare holdings of Bitcoin ETF GBTC worth $3m.
Combined AUM $625B.'- Julian Fahrer
Although it is only $3M to me it's a sign, that the institutions are coming.
24th of April:
➡️26+ Bitcoin companies signed a letter to FinCEN against proposed surveillance rules that would seriously harm privacy by effectively prohibiting basic Bitcoin best practices such as not reusing addresses and collaborative Bitcoin transactions. (Picture1)
25th of April:
➡️FBI warns Americans against using non-KYC Bitcoin and crypto money transmitting services.
It's becoming clearer that the U.S., but also here in the EU governments pursue surveillance policies and work to suppress the rights of their citizens to (financial) privacy and financial opportunity. They don't like competition. They don't believe in a real free market.
Remember "KYC is a security hole. Businesses are just bullied/forced by governments to collect customer information. It’s really difficult to secure information in the internet age. Some of the largest and most capitalized companies still get hacked regularly." - Gabor Gurbacs
1. Approve ETFs to create a honeypot.
2. Criminalize privacy tools by labeling it ML.
3. Go after self-custody Bitcoin by labeling it black market.
4. Execute 6102 on ETF honeypots.
*all while the price of real BTC pumps really hard and game theory plays out on the global stage.
It is so freaking obvious.
These actions directly incentivize the development of decentralized protocols by anonymous devs. Instead of scaring people, they lit the fire.
"They're going to go after self-custody because they need capital controls to properly execute financial repression. Capital is sufficiently captured in walled-garden ETFs. Widely adopted self-custodial Bitcoin used as an MoE with privacy tools present an existential threat."
Anyway why do we need privacy, why does the world need privacy, and why do we need uncensorable money:
https://journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/how-to-dictator-proof-your-money/
➡️"The State of Ohio has officially introduced a bill to protect 'fundamental Bitcoin rights'.
The right to buy & sell Bitcoin.
The right to mine Bitcoin
The right to run a full node
The right to self-custody your digital assets" - Dennis Porter
➡️ "Morgan Stanley is shifting to enable its 15,000 brokers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to their clients.
This is a big change from their "if they ask" approach, which is how they've managed ETF allocations thus far." -Thomas Fahrer
➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF sees its streak of 71 straight days of inflows come to an end, bringing in $0 yesterday. IBIT had the 10th longest streak of inflows in ETF history.
➡️ '$140B Global Retirement Partners has reported exposure to 7 Bitcoin ETFs + 1 Bitcoin mining ETF in SEC filings. GRP has more than 1.6 MILLION retirement accounts.' - Bitcoin Archive
26th of April:
➡️Japanese public company Metaplanet has announced it purchased ¥1b ($6.25m) of Bitcoin, equivalent to ~30% of the company's current market cap.
➡️ BNY Mellon reported owning shares in BlackRock and Grayscale Bitcoin ETFs - SEC filing
America's oldest bank is buying Bitcoin...
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 no news
🏦Banks:
👉🏽US prepared for the potential failure of a major Wall Street bank, says FDIC.
👉🏽Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Bank Failures (March, 2024):
"I’m sure there will be bank failures, but this is not the big banks."
Last night, the 26th of April, Republic First Bancorp officially collapsed and was seized by regulators.
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 22nd of April:
'Emerging market countries (excluding China) owe a staggering *$421 billion* of government debt this year
The majority of this is owed to multilateral institutions, foreign creditors, the IMF, and the Paris Club (deferred debt from the IMF, etc)'
You can also call this financial slavery or financial colonialism.
On the 25th of April:
👉🏽'For those who do not understand what just happened:
First, Q1 2024 GDP growth slowed to just 1.6% which is less than HALF of the 3.4% Q4 2023 number.
This reading is roughly 50% BELOW Goldman Sachs's expectations.
But it gets even worse.
At the same time, the US Core PCE Price Index soared from 2.0% to a staggering 3.7%.
This crushed estimates of 3.4% and further suggests that inflation is on the rise.
We have a weakening economy with rising inflation.
The worst possible outcome for the Fed.' - TKL
(Picture 2)
Ergo from "transitory" to "soft landing" to stagflation.
the work product of academics with over 800 PhDs at the Federal Reserve.
I let James Lavish do the talking:
"A Fed nightmare. When GDP (economic activity) slows down, yet prices continue rising (stagflation), and the government refuses to curb reckless deficit spending, this puts the Fed and Treasury in an impossible position that no matter what they do, it will lead to issuing more and more Federal Debt. This leads to the need to monetize the debt with more money printing, inflation surges, rates rise, and we do it all again."
QE Forever!
Now have a look at the following chart posted by Luke Gromen. (Picture 3)
The rest of the world started to wise up back in 2024. (remember the clip by Putin in 2014 saying how the Dollar/the US is a weapon and fucking everything up), moving away from continuing to fund US government spending & stupidity. This trend has intensified after Covid, countries are now parking their savings in Gold and eventually in Bitcoin.
"The Dollar is the emperor walking down the street naked."
Who is buying post-2014 (red line): The Fed, US banks, MMFs, and foreign tax shelters.
👉🏽President Biden proposes a 44.6% capital gains tax, the highest in history.
The proposal also includes a 25% tax on unrealized gains for high-net-worth individuals.
👉🏽'Savings rates in the US fell from 3.5% to 3.2%, the lowest since November 2022, according to Zerohedge.
Over the last year, savings rates have fallen from 5.2% to 3.2%.
All as credit card debt continues to push above a record $1.1 trillion with 25%+ interest rates.
On the 26th of April:
👉🏽 Currently the Yen is imploding. Japan's bonds and currency are crashing again. Now the following thread will give you a great overview and help people to understand why this is important and what is happening. https://twitter.com/peruvian_bull/status/1784020167141318860
The Japanese have lost 6% of their purchasing power in the last 3 weeks.
The Japanese were the first to "experiment" with QE, in their 1989 property crash. The US, then the UK then the EU copied them in 2008-2010 as they had no better ideas. So, the demise of Japan today, we can see happening to the rest of us in 10-15 years... or maybe less.
Read the thread, because it will show you why it is important to self custody your Bitcoin, and why Bitcoin is important.
On the 27th of April:
👉🏽The United States dollar has lost over 25% of its purchasing power since January 2020.
On the 28th of April:
'The US government has issued a whopping $11 TRILLION of debt over the last 4 years.
By comparison, it took the US 220 years to add the first $11 trillion of Federal debt.
Within the next 2 months, total US debt is on track to cross above $35 trillion for the first time in history.
Since June, the US debt has been rising by $1 trillion every 100 days.
If the current pace continues, another $11 trillion will be added in just three years putting us at ~$45 trillion by 2027.' (foto)
Anyway to put it in some perspective, over 75% of U.S National Debt was created after Bitcoin’s 1st block….
(Picture 4)
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
A masterclass by Saylor. (16min) This is next level. This is a lesson in financial literacy.
https://twitter.com/bleighky/status/1783551971682640241
TLDR: He is playing chess while everyone else plays checkers.
Full interview: https://youtu.be/bUfVLzNdOyc?feature=shared https://youtu.be/bUfVLzNdOyc?feature=shared
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'If you made $500.000 per day, every single day since the Great Pyramids were built, you would have less than half of what the US government has borrowed since June.'
Although this quote is a bit outdated it is actually nuts when you contemplate it...perspective is nice when it comes to large numbers.
Let me do the math for you: 4.700(years) * 365 (days/year) * 500.000$ (/day) = 857.750.000.000 - Less than a Trillion
(barring the likely inaccuracy of our understanding of the Pyramids timeline)
Which means you would still have less than 3% of what the US government has in total debt.
No matter your thoughts on Bitcoin, think about those numbers for a minute and let that sink in.
After that, you should probably buy some Bitcoin.
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before we start I want to share some deep knowledge:
"Bitcoin didn't appear out of thin air - it is the result of decades of work. Many digital currency projects failed before they succeeded. Understanding how we got here will help you understand where we're going. Learn the history behind Bitcoin here:" - Jameson Lopp
https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information/history.html
16th of April:
➡️Bitcoin Core 27.0 released:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/release-notes/release-notes-27.0.md
TLDR: Bitcoin has now better privacy by default. An important and welcome change to Bitcoin core, by finally supporting encryption between nodes. This is a massive improvement.
For the technical readers of the Weekly Recap, I would recommend to following article and podcast
https://stephanlivera.com/episode/433/
➡️Google has opened a new office in El Salvador to support the country’s digital transformation and modernization of government services. Furthering President Bukele’s goal of turning the country into a tech hub. Bukele managed to lower crime, a growing economy, and higher foreign investment + more tourism.
Eat that IMF
➡️BYBIT RESEARCH: "With only 2 million Bitcoin left, if we assume a daily inflow of $500 million to Bitcoin Spot ETFs, the equivalent of around 7,142 bitcoins will leave exchange reserves daily, suggesting that it will only take nine months to consume all of the remaining reserves." -Bitcoin News
➡️ "$400 Billion Banco Do Brasil holds BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF
It is the BIGGEST financial institution in Latin America!"- Bitcoin Archive
➡️"Mr. 100" is an unknown entity known for buying 100 Bitcoin every day since Nov 2, 2022. They now hold 60.600 BTC (!) worth $3.8 Billion ($1.6 Billion in profit)
Due to the size of the investment, many people speculate this is a nation-state buying Bitcoin. But who is it?" - Bram Kanstein
Great thread: https://twitter.com/bramk/status/1780243283060371717
I personally and I really do hope it is Brunei. They are mining Bitcoin and hopefully also buying Bitcoin.
But probably it is an exchange. Some people say this is an exchange wallet by Upbit Global.
17th of April:
➡️'Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs to start trading by 30th April and could bring in $25 billion: Matrixport and OSL reports.' -Radar
➡️Last week I wrote a bit on UFC lightweight Renato Moicano: "If you care about your country, read Ludwig Von Mises' 6 lessons of the Austrian Economic School motherf*ckers".
He was referring to, it’s a series of six lectures Mises gave in Argentina in 1958, later combined into a book: “Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow”.
'Fifty years after his death, Mises gets more downloads in three days than what 95% of living economists get in their entire lifetime. Regurgitating fiat propaganda may give you fiat jobs & titles, but pursuing truth gives you immortality.'- Saeifedean Ammous
➡️Blackrock spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT closing the $2.3B gap on Grayscale's GBTC in assets, could be ahead by month's end, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas
➡️ Now that the halving has passed us, and Bitcoin has become the hardest money in the world. Bitcoin’s most explosive gains are typically post-halving. Great chart from VanEck. (Picture 1)
18th of April:
Just the IMF putting time, effort, and money into reporting on Bitcoin.
They published a paper on Bitcoin cross-border flows, and here are three major takeaways:
'1.) The study provides evidence that increased Bitcoin activity occurs as investors move away from risk assets and supports the findings of other studies that Bitcoin can be used to hedge global uncertainty.'
2.) The study concludes that people appear to be turning to Bitcoin to flee instability in their local economies and currencies and to circumvent capital controls.
3.) The findings highlight that Bitcoin flows are typically larger in emerging and developing markets, like Argentina and Venezuela, compared to advanced economies with sophisticated financial markets.' - Sam Callahan
To sum it up the IMF just said :
1. Bitcoin is increasingly used as a hedge against risk
2. Bitcoin is used as freedom money in autocratic regimes
3. Bitcoin’s biggest use case is the global south to protect against currency debasement and financial instability
Cope from the IMF? The IMF just realized that Bitcoin nullifies the need for their existence.
For sure it is a surprising study, but I am not surprised by the outcome.
➡️Riot has started mining Bitcoin at its new Corsicana Texas facility.
With a capacity of 1 GW, it is projected to be the biggest in the world.' - Pierre Rochard
➡️ Jamie Dimon says Bitcoin is a fraud and a Ponzi scheme.
- JP Morgan funds hold Bitcoin
- JPMorgan, His firm is an Authorized Participant (AP) for the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF and gets paid for trading “fraud”.
➡️Binance dumps over 16,000 Bitcoin to back up their SAFU fund with ~$1 billion USDC
➡️'When Nobel Peace Prize nominee Félix Maradiaga tells you that Bitcoin is truly a tool for freedom after discussing the egregious human rights violations carried out by the Ortega regime, you listen.'
https://twitter.com/btcpolicyorg/status/1780983728858087893
Bitcoin serves as a tool to ensure human rights. Important for all world citizens, but especially for those living in Africa & South America.
19th - 20th of April:
Now I can explain to you what the halving is, but I rather let some Bitcoin OG's do that:
'The Bitcoin halving is not a day to celebrate because the price will immediately go up (it probably won't) but because it's a quadrennial reminder that we now have a means of saving free of debasement and resistant to censorship. For that I'm thankful.
Thank you, Satoshi' - Vijay Boyapati
'The Bitcoin halving is an anticipated event, one of those Bitcoin holidays that happen every once in a while. Along with Soft Fork Activation and various financial instrument introduction days, it's one of those not-quite-predictable days that occur every few years which give Bitcoiners reason to pay attention and mainstream media to speculate.'- Jimmy Song.
'Every node on the Bitcoin network divides the block height by a fixed issuance halving interval, 210,000 blocks. Rounding to the nearest whole number gives us how many halvings to apply to the 50 BTC initial per-block subsidy.
Halvings are applied by "right shifting" the binary representation of the subsidy, where the last bit is dropped and a zero is prepended in front. Each right shift applied causes a halving of issuance.' - Pierre Rochard (picture 2)
Andreas Antonopoulos explaining the halving:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwkRsp0gqX4&feature=youtu.be
The halving block, block 840.000, had 37.6 Bitcoin worth of fees... It wasn't just blocked 840,000 that had high fees, over the next 5 blocks, we had fees of 4.486, 6.99, 16.068, 24.008, and 29.821 BTC respectively. The fees are the highest it's ever been. This situation in Bitcoin is unprecedented.
If you want to know more on this topic (high fees - post halving) I highly recommend:
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1781518918001078441
➡️'In the first 60 blocks since the 4th Bitcoin halving, miners have collected 860.2 BTC in transaction fees alone. Equivalent to over $54m, this has already smashed the previous single-day all-time high transaction fees of $24m.' - Jameson Lopp
21st of April:
'In the 130 blocks post-halving, Bitcoin miners earned 1,675 BTC ($109 million)
Of this, 75% (1,262 BTC worth $82 million) came from transaction fees.
For context, miners received 1,349 BTC in fees from April 1 to April 19.' - Bitcoin News
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 'US Treasury Bills now yield 4 TIMES more than the S&P 500's dividend, the most since the Dot-com bubble.
Over the last 100 years, a multiple this high has only been seen ONE time.
By comparison, even in the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric peaked at ~3x.
With interest rate cuts being priced out, we likely see interest rates on bonds continue to push higher.
This will keep US T-Bill rates elevated and perhaps push this ratio to its 2000 highs.
Yet another Dot-com bubble similarity.'- TKL
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 16th of April:
👉🏽You are being told that we are in the greatest economy ever. Yet, every indicator shows we are in a terrible failing economy across the board, the US, Europe, etc. Stagflation is here and will only accelerate.
Although this is just a graph/ratio, AI will surely save us, right guys? (Picture 3)
We all know what followed, right? Populist leaders (please look around in your country) and a world war...
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”
- Ernest Hemingway
The US military is in a symbiotic relationship with the Dollar. If one part fails, it will drag the other down. Do understand that once Rome also spent more on 'defense' than others. Fiat currency is always about political faith. Always.
(Picture 4)
👉🏽"The IMF has cut Germany's economic growth in 2024 to 0.2%, after projecting a 0.5% rise in its January forecast. Europe's biggest economy is predicted to have the weakest growth of all G7 industrialized nations for the current year. For 2025, the IMF revised German growth to 1.3% from the previous 1.6%. IMF said this is due to persistently weak consumer sentiment. In the long term, the IMF's main concerns for Germany are structural problems such as the decline in the working population and obstacles to investment." - Holger Zschaepitz
I think the first time I spoke publicly on this matter was like three years ago. Germany is a slow-motion train wreck without cheap Russian natural gas. The green agenda isn't working, closing nuclear power plants isn't working...Europe's engine is on the ropes.
Oh well, this is an IMF so-called forecast.
👉🏽'The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US rises to 7.43%, a new 2024 high.
We have not seen mortgage rates this high since early December 2023, when the Fed said rate cut talks were "premature."
This means that the monthly mortgage payment on a $500,000 house with 20% down is now $3,500/month.
The $3,500/month figure also does not include property taxes, insurance, or maintenance.
Meanwhile, the median US home is now selling for a whopping $417,700.'- TKL
I guess it is a great time to be a rental property owner. Yikes!
This thought-provoking thread has a very counterintuitive, contrarian take:
https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard/status/1780679971146731837
TLDR: 'This sums it up pretty well. Sound money helps slow the process, too. The fiat advent coupled with Keynesian asset inflation policies created a perfect storm. The rise of Chinese deflation exporting was the nail in the coffin because it made this reflexive.' -Nelson Alves
On the 17th of April:
👉🏽'The US is expected to collect $2.9 trillion in tax receipts during FY2024 as of Q1.
Government expenditures over that period are expected to be over $9.7 trillion.
The thousands of dollars you remitted to TurboTax today won't cover even 1/3rd of US expenditures.'- Joe Consorti
👉🏽UK Inflation at 3.2% — the lowest in more than 2 years from a peak of 11.1%
On the 18th of April:
👉🏽'Want to be in the top 1% in the United States?
You now need a net worth of a whopping $5.8 MILLION.
This is up 15% from the $5.0 million threshold seen just one year ago.
The top 1% threshold in the US is only lower than Monaco, Luxembourg, and Switzerland.
As equity markets and real estate prices have skyrocketed, the wealth gap is widening.
Since 2020, the wealth of the top 1% in the US has risen by almost $15 trillion to a record $44.6 trillion.
The rich are getting richer faster than ever before.' -TKL
👉🏽IMF Prepares Financial Revolution – Say Goodbye To The Dollar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/imf-prepares-financial-revolution-say-goodbye-dollar
The only thing I can say on this is:
- I am not surprised
- Please reject CBDCs with everything you have. The centralization of digital currencies will never work!
- The IMF is not elected!
Anyway, no need to panic whatsoever. The IMF probably goes before the dollar. The dollar is and will be the number one (fiat) currency of the world.
On the 20th of April:
👉🏽'The Congressional Budget Office expects that about $20 trillion in net new federal debt will be issued over the next decade.
As part of this, they assume 1) no recessions but also that 2) that interest rates will go down starting here in 2024.
Otherwise, probably >$20 trillion.'
Now go back to the top of this article and read the start quote.
(Picture 5)
'Over the same next decade:
At current production rates and prices, about $2.5 trillion in new refined gold will be created. Prices and supply rates could change.
At current prices, about $70 billion in new bitcoin will be created. Prices could change, but not supply rates.' - Lyn Alden
On top of that:
👉🏽'The U.S. has $4.4 Trillion annual revenue, prints $1 Trillion every 100 days and there is still somehow a need to vote for $100 Billion aid to countries on top of everything else. House approves aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. House Rejects Border Security Bill.
The U.S. doesn’t have a revenue problem, it has a government spending problem.
'A child born in 2024 in the U.S. is born with ~$85,000 debt.
The median U.S. bank account balance is $8,000 and over half of the population has less than $500 in savings.
So, printing $ Trillions and sending $100s of Billions abroad is not without consequences.' - Gabor Gurbacs
Politicians celebrating sending another $60B to fund a foreign war. Perfect more DEBT!
Context:
$34.6 trillion in debt.
123% Debt to GDP
Nearly a $3 trillion deficit this year.
video: https://twitter.com/MDBitcoin/status/1781786149071032712
Separate money and state.
To sum everything up from above:
The US hasn’t generated a surplus consistently since the 1990s.
The trend over the past 50 years has been:
Larger and larger monthly deficits.
Monthly surpluses are getting few and far between.
That’s why the debt can only continue rising exponentially.
Deficit is destiny. That means increasing the rate of debasement of the US$.
21st of April:
'Who is supposed to pay for pensions and healthcare entitlements in Italy in a few years?
BTW, it’s a similar picture in Germany. Demographics is one of the main reasons why the US will be much better off than Europe as we go forward.' -Michael A. Arouet
If I were 50 years old in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands we are starting to see the same effect, I'd start wondering who will pay my state-funded pension.
You need either economic growth, acceptance of high migration, or healthy demographics. Italy has none of the three. What will give?
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1781978599391674470
Please click on the link and have a look at the graph.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Lyn Alden's April newsletter is out. Well, worth your time to read this:
https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
Dutch Noderunners Halving Party🧡✅
19blocks👀✅🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption 
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
‘When you understand Bitcoin there is no way back. You will look at the system in a whole new way. Your friends and family will think you’re crazy. Choose wisely.’
― Bitcoin for Freedom
"3 rules that are a cheat code for life:
1. Create value for others
2. Spend less than you earn
3. Save in Bitcoin"
― BTC Sessions
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
9th of April:
➡️Japanese firm Metaplanet buys ¥1B ($6.5M) of Bitcoin, mirroring MicroStrategy's strategy. The company's shares jumped 90% following the announcement.
11th of April:
➡️SEC to file lawsuit against defi crypto platform Uniswap - Reuters
This is why Satoshi disappeared and made Bitcoin impervious to government attacks.
12th of April:
➡️IMF demands El Salvador change its Bitcoin law in return for a $1.4 billion loan. (please read the part on the IMF below -> segment Macro/geopolitics.) How I read this statement, the IMF is annoyed at the mere existence of Bitcoin. Basically, they are saying: Sell your 'hard' money and get indebted to us.
➡️"The more energy Bitcoin mining uses, the more emissions it can reduce
35 midsized venting landfills running Bitcoin mining is all it takes for Bitcoin mining to be the
world's first emission-negative industry
Achieved organically, without subsidy, without purchasing offsets." - Daniel Batten
Could it be possible for Bitcoin to save the environment with its Proof-of-Work design and be the main player in the 'green' energy revolution?
13th of April:
➡️Paraguay Senate approves resolution to sell energy surplus to bitcoin miners, criticizes sale of energy to Brazil for 25% of what bitcoin mining generates, directs this energy to 20 new bitcoin mining companies instead. Remember Paraguay is a large hydroelectricity producer and Bitcoin could be the answer.
I am pretty sure that Bitcoin will be the primary engine of prosperity in the 21st century. Countries like El Salvador, and Paraguay but also several countries in Africa will lead the way.
14th of April:
➡️UFC lightweight Renato Moicano: "If you care about your country, read Ludwig Von Mises' 6 lessons of the Austrian Economic School motherf*ckers".
He also demanded his fight bonus in Bitcoin.
He is referring to, it’s a series of six lectures Mises gave in Argentina in 1958, later combined into a book: “Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow”:
1. Capitalism
2. Socialism
3. Interventionism
4. Inflation
5. Foreign Investment
6. Policies and Ideas
Full read: https://cdn.mises.org/Economic%20Policy%20Thoughts%20for%20Today%20and%20Tomorrow_3.pdf
➡️The number of addresses holding more than 1 Bitcoin peaked in January 2024 at 1,024,484 and has fallen by 13,000 since.
15th of April:
➡️Norway became the first country in Europe to introduce regulations for data centers aimed at controlling which projects are permitted.
Cites emissions, and energy consumption control. They state Bitcoin mining “is an example of a type of business we do not want in Norway”
They are not going to ban mining. They want to force data centers to report to the government what kind of processes they are doing. Still bad though! Why, because it is misguided, ineffective, and futile. If electric cars = zero-emission... electric miners too. Are they going to ban or regulate EV cars too?
Clown policy that will backfire badly for a country already going through a currency crisis and for a failing continent, Europe.
Read the following thread by Daniel Batten.
https://twitter.com/DSBatten/status/1779859225809990116
Ergo: Politicians have no clue or are being paid to not understand things that benefit society/their people.
➡️Germany's biggest Federal bank LBBW to launch Bitcoin custody services to institutional customers.
Bitcoin ETF news:
"Weekly Bitcoin ETF Flows:
IBIT +7,000 BTC
FBTC + 1,300 BTC
GBTC -11,000 BTC
Net Flows - 1,100 BTC
In a week of GBTC Sales, CPI freak outs and War fears, Bitcoin holds 67K and has slight outflows."- Thomas Fahrer
On the 9th of April:
➡️The value of BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings jumps to $18.9 Billion.
➡️Fidelity now holds 150K Bitcoin worth over $10 Billion.
On the 11th of April:
➡️Asia ETF's
- Hong Kong approving Bitcoin ETFs
- South Korea will approve Bitcoin ETFs
- Chinese fund managers launching Bitcoin ETFs
US Bitcoin ETFs pushed the price from $38K to $73K.
South Korea's pro-Bitcoin Democratic Party has won the national election to form a government. More than 6 million South Koreans — over 10% of the population own Bitcoin or crypto.
DP: "We're going to allow the ETFs, domestic or overseas."
➡️GBTC sees the smallest outflow since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs with just $17.5 million leaving the fund on the 11th of April.
15th of April:
➡️Hong Kong just approved the first batch of Bitcoin ETFs
➡️"Since launching on Jan 10, U.S. ETFs, even including all GBTC sales, have amassed 222,000 Bitcoin in just 65 trading days—that's 3,415 BTC daily!
Now Hong Kong ETFs join the game, just as the weak hands have folded and miners have half as much to sell." - Thomas Fahrer
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 'BlackRock is eating the world: Hits record $10.5tn in assets under management in Q1 2024, +15% YoY, boosted by $57bn of total net inflows to its investment products.'
👉🏽Here's a crazy stat that no one will believe.
The universal investment benchmark is the 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds.
What if you replaced the bonds entirely with gold....crazy right?
Turns out it makes no real difference.
(picture 2)
Now wait till they do Bitcoin.
👉🏽This time is different:
(picture 3)
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 9th of April:
👉🏽"The EU must find ‘enormous amount’ of money to face global challenges, says former ECB chief Mario Draghi."
Money Printer go brrrr to infinity…because 'Whatever it takes' - Draghi
How?
Confiscate
Tax(visible)
Tax (hidden)
Government “Innovation”.
👉🏽Constant QE or default are the only ways out. And financial repression is the default, just in slow motion.
(See picture 4)
'This assumes no recessions or geopolitical events for the next few decades.
Japanese-style financial repression is the only way out of this mess. Or what other viable options are there?'
👉🏽"The federal budget deficit totaled $1.1 trillion in the first half of fiscal year 2024, CBO estimates"
'And yet, just over a month ago, the same CBO released their report projecting a $1.5T deficit for the entire year. At this rate, the deficit will be $2.2T, a 47% overshoot and even higher than the projected deficit in 2031.' - James Lavish
The US spending is out of control and it's getting worse at an exponential rate. Within one month, they (CBO) posted a 47% overshoot on the largest budget in world history.
The whole US budget, but also here in Europe, implodes around 2030 - 2035 at the latest. A new system will rise...the only question you need to ask yourself will it be Bitcoin or CBCD's? (Picture 5)
On the 10th of April:
👉🏽March CPI inflation rate UP to 3.5%
- Above expectations of 3.4%.
- Cor inflation is 3.8%, also higher than expected rate of 3.7%.
3 straight years with inflation over 3%
They said "Inflation is transitory"
'Inflation has not fallen in a single month since Biden's term began (the closest was July 2022 when it was unchanged), which leaves overall prices up over 19% since Bodenomics was unleashed. And prices have never been higher.'- Zerohedge
This means that overall prices are up a whopping 19% in less than 4 years.
We have not had a year-over-year inflation print below 3% in 36 consecutive months.
Furthermore, inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for 37 straight months.
Inflation is now building on previous years of inflation; we effectively have compounding inflation. Everyone should be asking for a 20% raise.
👉🏽For the less informed.
Price inflation at every fast food restaurant in the US has far exceeded CPI inflation since 2014.
Prices at McDonald's have DOUBLED since 2014 while official inflation data shows just 31% inflation.
Prices at Popeyes, Taco Bell, and Chipotle have risen by 86%, 81%, and 75%, respectively.
Traditionally, fast food was considered to be a "cheap" food option.
The CPI is a lie it’s manipulated to be lower than real inflation.
👉🏽On the same day, the US 10-year Treasuries had their worst day since May 2023, with yields surging after the one-two punch of a hot CPI and a bad auction. Peter Boockvar: "10-year auction was bad...Dealers were left with 24% of the auction, which is the most since Nov. 2022."
👉🏽China has been buying more gold than any other nation since 2020, with India in second place.
Can we call this DeDollarization?
(picture 6)
More on China...
👉🏽"Following Moody's in December, Fitch Ratings revised the China debt outlook to negative from stable.
China's pace of debt accumulation is very problematic. Public debt has more than doubled since the Great Financial Crisis and is heading to above 100% of GDP.
More importantly, total debt has ballooned from 133% in 2008 to 272%(!) in 2022. It will have risen again in 2023.
The current 10-year Chinese bond yield is at 2.29%, which is extremely low for a country that expects to grow by 5% annually. Coincidence? Of course not! China has the same debt sustainability issues as every other major economy, and rating agencies must act." - Jeroen Blokland
On the 11th of April:
👉🏽IMF Prepares Financial Revolution – Say Goodbye To The Dollar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/imf-prepares-financial-revolution-say-goodbye-dollar
The only thing I can say on this is:
- I am not surprised
- Please reject CBDCs with everything you have. The centralization of digital currencies will never work!
- The IMF is not elected!
Anyway, no need to panic whatsoever. The IMF probably goes before the dollar. The dollar is and will be the number one (fiat) currency of the world.
On the 12th of April:
👉🏽"Another strange sign that someone knows something:
Gold is up ~20% over the last 5 months and has doubled the S&P 500's return.
Meanwhile, bonds are down nearly 9% as interest rate cuts are priced out.
Historically speaking, gold and bonds have almost always traded together.
There is now a ~30% GAP between the performance of gold and bonds, one of the 5-month divergences largest on record.
Gold is completely ignoring the fact that higher interest rates are here to stay while bonds are getting crushed." - TKL
Central banks /countries are selling their debt portfolios and buying gold. That would be my take. The financialization of everything era is over.
On the 15th of April:
👉🏽'The US credit card delinquency rates are now at their highest on record, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
In Q4 2023, more credit card balances were 30+ and 60+ days past due compared to any other period in history.
The percentage of credit card balances at least 30 days past due is now ~3.5%.
Meanwhile, total credit card debt has skyrocketed in recent months and is now at a record $1.3 trillion.
The average credit card interest rate is also at a record 28%, according to Forbes.' - TKL
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Warmaking has become increasingly unlimited in the fiat age, as financing has moved away from war taxes and war bonds and towards quiet borrowing
This is a very well-documented essay and thread with data and statistic by nostr:npub1trr5r2nrpsk6xkjk5a7p6pfcryyt6yzsflwjmz6r7uj7lfkjxxtq78hdpu :
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-the-fed-hides-costs-of-war
Book tip: Read The Creature from Jekyll Island.
Extra gift!🎁
Your wealth is melting—the first report by Joe Burnett is 37 pages exploring how humanity's relationship with wealth has changed after the discovery of Bitcoin.
https://8198895.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/8198895/PDFs/Your%20wealth%20is%20melting-1.pdf
nostr:npub1z5ds93lv6uky7n4676txw7aqp9qdcyhs00qdsmy96s4k6qd8rvaqnzmqhw
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption 
UFC lightweight Renato Moicano 🎤:
"If you care about your country, read Ludwig Von Mises' 6 lessons of the Austrian Economic School motherf*ckers"
MMA fighters shilling Austrian Econ, classic!👀🔥
Ludwig von Mises - 6 Lessons of Austrian Economics School 🧵
1. Subjective Value Theory: Economic value is subjective and varies from person to person. This theory underlines the idea that individuals assign value to goods and services based on their own preferences and needs.
2. Methodological Individualism: Methodological approach that focuses on individual human action as the fundamental unit of analysis in economics. This perspective highlights the importance of understanding the actions and decisions of individuals in shaping economic outcomes.
3. The Calculation Problem: In a centrally planned economy, without the use of market prices for the means of production, rational economic calculation becomes impossible, leading to inefficiency and resource misallocation.
4. Spontaneous Order: Suggests that complex social phenomena, including economic systems, emerge organically from the interactions of individuals pursuing their own interests. This idea contrasts with central planning and highlights the benefits of decentralized decision-making.
5. Time Preference Theory: It explains how individuals value present consumption over future consumption. This theory helps to understand saving, investment, and interest rates in the economy.
6. The Business Cycle Theory: Business cycles are primarily caused by fluctuations in the money supply, particularly through credit expansion by central banks. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable monetary system to avoid economic instability.
Read Mises, study Bitcoin!🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"FIAT = politics for growing your own currency and its dominance at the expense of others.
BITCOIN = a movement for growing a currency and its dominance at the expense of no one else, but through synergy and spontaneous emergence.
They are not the same.
They are the opposite."
― Arnold Hubach
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️El Salvador offers 5,000 free passports to highly skilled scientists, engineers, doctors, artists, and philosophers from abroad.
This will grant them full citizen status, including voting rights.
Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador:
'We're offering 5,000 free passports (equivalent to $5 billion in our passport program) to highly skilled scientists, engineers, doctors, artists, and philosophers from abroad.
This represents less than 0.1% of our population, so granting them full citizen status, including voting rights, poses no issue.
Despite the small number, their contributions will have a huge impact on our society and the future of our country.
Plus, we will facilitate their relocation by ensuring 0% taxes and tariffs on moving families and assets. This includes commercial value items like equipment, software, and intellectual property.'
➡️On-chain data from GlassNode reveals that approximately 1.876 million Bitcoin, or 9.5% of the total supply, have been acquired above $60,000.
➡️ 'The satoshi millionaires continue to gain ground, now holding over 17% of the total supply. Stay humble and stack sats.' - Wicked
➡️Bitcoin has been a profitable investment 99.92% of the days since its launch on January 3, 2009.
This means there have only been a tiny handful of days, just six to be exact, where investing in Bitcoin wouldn't have turned a profit.
➡️Bitcoin miner Bitfarms invests $240M to acquire 28,000 Bitmain T21 miners.
➡️Talking about mining.
'In the last four years, emission intensity has fallen by 348g/kWh.
That's 29x faster than the banking sector is greening its emission intensity.
No industry has ever dropped its emission intensity so fast. It happened primarily because Bitcoin sustainable energy mix rose 56%.' -Daniel Batten
➡️Kingdom of Bhutan to increase mining capacity 6x ahead of the Bitcoin halving to 600 megawatts.
➡️On the first of April:
'Exactly 11 years ago, Bitcoin broke a $1 billion market cap for the 1st time.
1000x later, economists are still "mystified".
Mainstream economists are mystified because they can’t deal with reality most of the time.
At $1.3+ Trillion, Bitcoin's market capitalization exceeds the top 4 largest banks in the world, COMBINED. No wonder banksters are afraid.
➡️"Financial planning firm Burkett Financial Services, reported owning 602 shares of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF as of March 31. This kicks off what is expected to be a HUGE month of SEC filings by firms that own
Bitcoin ETFs."- Bitcoin Archive
➡️Coinbase integrating Lightning.
Bitcoin on lightning rails isn't just the future - it's here! Coinbase has over 100 million users. Better late than never Coinbase, it only took them like 7 years. Oh well, it's great news to see more adoption of the Lightning Network.
➡️"The State of Louisiana (with a unanimous 103-0 vote) Passes a Bill To Protect Your 'Fundamental Bitcoin Rights' out of the State House.
Louisiana is taking decisive steps to safeguard the freedom of Bitcoin-related activities within the state.
Upon enactment, this legislation will explicitly ensure protection for:
-The guaranteed right to purchase Bitcoin.
-Your freedom for Bitcoin mining.
-The right to self-custody of your digital assets.
-The freedom to operate a full node." - Dennis Porter
➡️$932 Billion asset manager DWS launches physical Bitcoin ETC in Germany.
DWS partners with Galaxy Digital to offer the "Xtrackers Galaxy Physical Bitcoin ETC" in Germany.
The product is 1:1 "physically backed" utilizing two cryptocurrency custodians, Zodia Custody and Coinbase
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/900-billion-dws-launches-physical-bitcoin-etc-in-germany
Not sure about the 'physically backed' part, but still kinda bullish.
Bitcoin ETF news:
➡️Eric Balchunas reports that BlackRock has updated its Bitcoin ETF prospectus, adding Citadel, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Citigroup. This marks a major shift: big firms are now eager and comfortable with public association with Bitcoin.
➡️Australia's first Bitcoin ETF to go live this year, says asset manager Monochrome
➡️Morgan Stanley and UBS Reportedly Competing to Launch First Bitcoin ETF.
Reports suggest that Morgan Stanley appears poised to edge out UBS in this race, with insider sources indicating that an announcement could be imminent.
➡️Korea to approve Bitcoin ETFs if pro-Bitcoin opposition wins election in 4 days – Bloomberg
"We're going to allow the ETFs, domestic or overseas."
More than 6 million South Koreans — over 10% of the population own Bitcoin or crypto.
➡️ Bitcoin spot ETFs have siphoned over 4% of the total supply of Bitcoin since January 11, according to analysis from IntoTheBlock.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have CPI, the FOMC minutes, and PPI. In Europe, it’s the euro area Sentix, ECB policy meeting, and UK GDP. And in Asia, we have the China and India CPI and RBNZ meeting.
👉🏽 'The US stock market now accounts for a massive ~45% of total global market cap.
Since 2008, the US share has risen by ~15% to its largest since 2004.
The US equity market size is now larger than India, China, Australia, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, UK, France, and Japan COMBINED.
US stocks also account for almost 65% and more than 70% of the MSCI ACWI and the MSCI World indexes, respectively.
To put this in perspective, Nvidia, alone exceeds the GDP of all but 11 countries in the world. The top 10% of S&P 500 stocks now account for 75% of the index's market cap.
This is an even higher percentage than the peak of the Dot-com bubble.' - TKL
👉🏽Gold price surged over $2300 an ounce, a new record high.
Since February 14th, gold is up an incredible $300/oz or 15% in less than 2 months.
Even as 3 interest rate cuts have been removed from market forecasts, gold is pushing higher.
Geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation worries have been the primary drivers.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"This week, France reported a 5.5% budget deficit for 2023 and that it won't be able to push the deficit to below 3% of GDP until at least 2027. Italy will post a 7% deficit for 2023, not declining to less than 3% until at least 2026. In the US, the budget deficit for 2023 will be over 6% and remain above 5% until 2027, after which it will start to increase again.
Meanwhile, there is no recession, economic momentum (using the Citi global economic surprise index as a proxy) is improving, and global #nflation remains nearly two percentage points above the pre-COVID average.
And yet, central banks around the globe are ready to cut rates. Imagine what will happen when we do get a recession, inflation drops and governments accumulate even more debt. Or will this time be different?"
As Lyn Alden would say: Fiscal dominance.
Fiscal dominance at the end of a long-term debt cycle. We are accelerating debasement to offset the deflationary effects of technology on debt markets.
And will it be different this time? No, I don't think so. Do you really think they can bring down deficits? Why will they be able to do so in 2026 or 2027? As always they will kick the can down the road.
Explanation of Fiscal Dominance:
The Fed has no choice. If rates (more on that below) are not cut we get a financial crisis. There is too much government debt!
We now live in an era of Fiscal Dominance.
The term "fiscal dominance" refers to a situation in which the government's fiscal policy (Deficits of 6% and Debt to GDP at WWII levels) significantly influences or dominates the monetary policy set by the central bank.
This occurs when a government's debt level is so high that it restricts the central bank's ability to control inflation through monetary policy tools, such as setting interest rates.
If rates don’t come down, and the value of the USD does not come down then there is a very high probability that the US will experience a failed bond auction.
Or....they can cut government spending but we all know that's not going to happen, innit?
Now scroll back up and read that part again on France & Italy's deficit.
Remember what I shared last week?
The last time France didn't have a budget deficit: 1974
👉🏽Last week I already mentioned that the US debt outlook isn't looking good and rather unsustainable.
(please read that part again in last week's Weekly Recap)
On the 1st of April after finishing that Weekly Recap Bloomberg released an article with the title:
A Million Simulations, One Verdict for US Economy: Debt Danger Ahead"
Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path.
''In the end, it may take a crisis — perhaps a disorderly rout in the Treasuries market triggered by sovereign US credit-rating downgrades, or a panic over the depletion of the Medicare or Social Security trust funds — to force action.''
Remember the Treasury chief (Janet Yellen) herself acknowledged in a Feb. 8 hearing that “in an extreme case” there could be a possibility of borrowing reaching levels that buyers wouldn’t be willing to purchase everything the government sought to sell.
Even with a miracle, they get it done in the treasury market, but they still won't fix the deficit. (again read last week's Weekly Recap - segment Macro/Geopolitics)
'Medicare is $79 trillion underfunded & Social Security $15 trillion underfunded. With another $29 trillion in various other underfunded liabilities, for a total of $123 trillion. Plus $34 trillion of debt.
That's not enough to cause a panic & force action?'
These are just the facts.
Please read the full article here: https://archive.ph/lOvx6
👉🏽Talking about the treasury market:
Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell says no interest rate cuts until inflation improves.
The 10-year note yield is now trading at its highest level since November 2023, at 4.39%
Stronger-than-expected inflation data and rising oil prices have added to inflation worries over the last month.
The 10-year note yield is now just 11 basis points away from crossing 4.50%.
Meanwhile, less than 3 interest rate cuts are now expected in 2024.
Higher for longer has quickly returned.'- TKL
In plain English: It is forecasting extended inflation and possibly stagflation.
The Fed knows that lowering interest rates leads to the re-steepening of yield curves, which leads to recession and stock price drawdowns.
So they wind down QT (and possibly restart QE) to kick the can until after the election. (I have discussed this scenario now for a year, and it looks like this will be the playbook.)
Higher for longer, until something breaks. In the meantime, stocks, assets, and Bitcoin will rise.
👉🏽Now that we know that the rates will remain higher what could go wrong?
'Currently, there is roughly $6 TRILLION of Commercial Real Estate (CRE) debt in the US.
Banks hold a whopping $3 trillion, or 50%, of this outstanding debt.
This year, ~$929 billion, or one-sixth of this debt is set to be refinanced, according to Goldman Sachs.
Rates on these loans are set to double or even triple since they were taken.
All while many of these CRE projects are bankrupt or cash flow negative.' (Picture 2)
Ergo: There's simply too much debt all around, and all of it arising from too many years of easy monetary policy. Let's see which regional bank or market player will bite the dust next.
What do I mean by there is simply too much debt all around?
'U.S. debt always goes up. The only time it decreased in the post-war era was for an 18-month stretch around 2009. That's when private debt growth slowed down and public debt growth took over.
It's almost at $100 trillion.' - Lyn Alden
(Picture 3)
👉🏽"Total wealth held by the top 1% of Americans is now at a record $44.6 trillion.
This means that the top 1% of Americans now control 30% of all wealth in the US.
In Q4 2023 alone, the top 1% saw their net worth increase by $2 trillion as the stock market soared.
Since 2020, the wealth of the top 1% has risen by almost $15 trillion.
That's a ~50% increase in just three years all as affordability has hit record lows.
The wealth gap is widening."- TKL (picture 4)
To the extent the stock market and other assets rising in price creates this wealth gap (since a small percentage of Americans, but also here in Europe, own stocks and other assets), Fed intervention meant to support the price of these assets is a large part of that wealth gap. Sound money is essential to defending freedom. If you look at the chart...please compare that with the chart of the US debt chart. I will give you a hint, it is almost as vertical.
Our world is quickly being divided into those who own assets, and those who pay asset owners. In general (our history) that's not a good thing, as inequality continues to rise.
👉🏽Eurozone inflation cools, setting the stage for June rate cut: Headline CPI slowed to 2.4% YoY in March from 2.6% in Feb below the consensus forecast of 2.5%. Core CPI slowed to 2.9% from 3.1%, again below economists' expectations to reach the lowest level in >2yrs. But there were signs that inflationary pressures have yet to ease in labor-intensive parts: Service Price inflation +4.0% YoY, same as the 4 preceding months. (via DJ)
👉🏽The US Dollar is down 11% against gold and down 40% against bitcoin in 2024.
👉🏽All of the headlines focused on how the "US added 303,000 jobs in March."
However, if you dig further into the data, ALL of the job gains came from part-time jobs, according to ZeroHedge.
Last month, the US added a whopping 691,000 part-time jobs while LOSING 6,000 full-time jobs.
The worst part?
Over the last year, the number of full-time jobs is DOWN 1.347 million.
Meanwhile, the number of part-time jobs is up by 1.888 million, according to ZeroHedge.
To make it even worse: 71,000 govt jobs were added. 0 manufacturing jobs added.
Now ask yourself in a well-functioning economy do people hold one or more than one job?
What we see overall is a massive disconnect between data and reality.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
"We constantly hear from politicians and pundits that Bitcoin has no use case. In the next video, Peter McCormack & Alex Gladstein cover *dozens of specific, critical Bitcoin use cases* across global commerce, human rights, and energy.
They discuss:
- Bitcoin for commerce, freedom, & power
- Broken money for billions
- Why Bitcoin is bad for dictators
- How Bitcoin fixes wasted power
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI3Xcei8d_I
“If you take savings, commerce, freedom, and power, that’s the bedrock of civilization; so if you don’t have these things…you’re living in a very poor country.” - Alex Gladstein
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
Bitcoin is the:
Math class you never had.
History class you never had.
Finance class you never had.
Physics class you never had.
Economics class you never had.
Philosophy class you never had.
― The Bitcoin Therapist
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Last week I showed you guys with data and charts how the US, the world reserve currency, our current system, is leading our society to 'death'.
This is not something new. The Dutch eventually lost their reserve currency status and after that the British (Empire). Why? Too much debt.
Our current system needs to consume to pay off our debt. It's that simple...
If you look at last week's Government Debt chart you will notice that this doesn't include the debt of households & businesses, the nature of the money multiplier & fractional reserve banking means the total outstanding debt in the world is much higher.
Again, high-time preference culture and borrowing from our future will lead to the death of society. As we have seen in the past...
Unless we have something that will rise out of the ashes...
Bitcoin.
➡️Tether has added another 8,888.88888888 Bitcoin to their reserves, bringing their total treasury to 75,354 BTC. This is consistent with Tether's Treasury Reserve Strategy of saving 15% of profits in Bitcoin.
➡️Bitmain has unveiled the Antminer S21 Pro, the newest iteration of its flagship Bitcoin mining ASIC.
Boasting a hash rate of 234 TH/s and an energy efficiency ratio of 15.0 J/TH, the Antminer S21 Pro “has the ability to deal with more challenging environments.”
➡️"The daily DCAers who started stacking Bitcoin at the all-time high in late 2021 now have a lower cost basis than the daily DCAers who started stacking at the bear market low in late 2022.
Proving once again that with Bitcoin, time in the market beats timing the market." - Wicked (picture 2)
Ergo: get off zero. The biggest mistake you can make is being on the sidelines as Bitcoin is the greatest savings technology ever devised.
➡️On the 30th of March someone bought or transferred $1.1 Billion worth of Bitcoin at $70K.
1.1 Billion...I wish I had cash like that available. Oh by the way the fee was only 17 dollars. Classic!
➡️Bitcoin closed its 7th straight green month for the first time in history.
➡️Coinbase Bitcoin reserves hit a 9-year low on the 26th of March.
➡️Cryptocurrency exchange Kucoin and two of its founders criminally charged with bank secrecy act violations and unlicensed money transmission offenses.
➡️On the 28th of March it was exactly 27 years ago, Adam Back invented Proof-of-Work, the bedrock of Bitcoin. It's how Satoshi harnessed time and energy to create the best money in human history.
Bitcoin ETF news:
➡️Two months in, Bitcoin ETFs have ~$60B AUM
Gold ETFs had $60B AUM after 15 years.
However, you can't really compare both assets with each other as the USD had a completely different value back then. Still an impressive growth for the Bitcoin ETFs. The move from analog to digital is always exponential.
➡️Here's a look at the Top 30 ranked by assets in the first 50 days on the market. Went global for this so this is out of 11,338 funds. Four BTC ETFs made the list.
Out of 11,338 global funds, the two with the largest AUM in history after 50 trading days are both Bitcoin ETFs, and it isn’t particularly close. (Picture 3)
One thing to consider this is not adjusted for inflation.
At this rate, BlackRock could overtake Grayscale's Bitcoin stack by this month's halving.
Blackrock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT holdings have now surpassed 252,011 BTC ($18B)
"I’m pleasantly surprised and I’d never have predicted it before we filed it that we were going to see this type of retail demand," says Blackrock CEO Larry Fink.
➡️WisdomTree gained approval to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs for its $206 million and $117 million funds.
➡️Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: 3% is the new 1%
He reports professional investors' potential Bitcoin allocation has shifted from 1% to 3%+ since 2018, primarily due to ETFs mitigating "going to zero" risk.
For wealth investors, 3%+ is the new norm.
➡️ Rumours that Morgan Stanley will approve Bitcoin ETFs on their platform in the next 2 weeks are getting stronger.
Early this month Morgan Stanley filed with the SEC that 12 of their funds may buy Bitcoin ETFs, and last week they sent Bitcoin compliance & education materials out to all advisors.
Morgan Stanley has $1.5 Trillion in assets under management.
➡️Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs are expected to be approved in Q2
Including the ability to withdraw Bitcoin (No paper bitcoins!). (source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-likely-allow-kind-162521543.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADQ9lwMOgCrUeYU0wXFR-I3VLIKK-KPVw7jOrmT28h7AkgQov2AuXnkaTT2jaFgNCEnYB4HKsdsctI_6_qKwmpCImH9bSY7Urg2Jc31A2ESgCz8C3zt7ijbuasbFwUFkEscFEHe_VrX4FeEzOtzzvr61eM2d_A9C4_TQql_qEu0l)
➡️SBF sentenced to 25 years in jail.
Judge Kaplan: you are sentenced… for a total of 300 months [25 years]."
This is blasphemy as SBF stole billions of customers' money, and lied in court.
Ross Ulbricht created a website and is still serving 2 life sentences in prison.
Injustice at its finest.
A double life sentence + 40 years with no chance of parole.
Ross was sentenced at the age of 29.
On the 28th of March, he turned 40.
His “crime” was building a website where people could trade freely without government permission.
In the process, he introduced the world to Bitcoin.
If you want to know more about Ross read this excellent thread by Pete Rizzo:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1774052843562889450.html?utm_campaign=topunroll
Just to make one thing clear. He's definitely a legend. Ross Ulbricht's story is remarkable and complex, highlighting the early days of Bitcoin and the challenges faced by its pioneers. But making a black market is not something good, he got what he deserved. But the sentence is way too harsh.
➡️Since 2022, someone has consistently bought 100 Bitcoin at any price.
They now hold 53,733 Bitcoin worth $4 billion, making them the 13th largest Bitcoin holder.
➡️The latest Bitcoin difficulty adjustment came in on the morning of the 28th of March at -0.98%
There is only one more difficulty adjustment before the halving.
Everything is lining up perfectly for the halving to occur on 4/20.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have ISM, payroll reports, and communication from key Fed officials. In Europe, we have PMI, inflation, and unemployment data. In Asia we start the week with a central bank meeting in India, the Bank of Japan Tankan survey, and PMI and inflation releases across the region.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"If US government debt averages 4% across the weighted duration spectrum, that would be about $1.4 trillion in annual interest expense.
At $50 trillion in debt (which will get us there quickly), it’ll be $2 trillion in annual interest expense." -Lyn Alden
The US Government currently makes about $12.2B while spending $17.7B per day. That's overspending by $5.5B per day, which will add up to a total of $2T of overspending for the year.
Drowning in debt. Totally normal phenomenon and sound finance, right? This is why US interest rates can't rise much more and also why they should. More on this topic the great thread by Bob Elliott
https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1772229788737913036
Remember we are not in a pandemic, we’re not in a World War, and the US is in an allegedly healthy economy. When any of those changes, debt will skyrocket.
With US national debt up $10 trillion since the pandemic, and roughly sixfold the 2008 crisis. The Treasury issued $7 trillion of debt in just 3 months. (Picture 4)
That matches the worst of Covid -- no pandemic needed. And it's double the previous record that had stood for 231 years.
Again I don't want to be doom and gloom, but these are just the facts. Issuing more t-bills at an accelerating pace is a precondition to becoming a banana republic. This is the type of thing you see emerging markets do, not the issuer of the world's reserve currency and neutral reserve asset.
Just to make it even worse, the US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 44 months, by far the longest bond bear market in history.
👉🏽"Since 1800, 51 out of 52 countries who have reached a 130% Debt-to-GDP ratio have defaulted.
According to the US CBO itself, debt-to-GDP in the US is on track to hit 130% for the first time by 2033.
In 2007, debt-to-GDP in the US was just 60% and it has quickly doubled since then.
Currently, debt-to-GDP is at ~124% which is HIGHER than the peak of World War 2, at 119%.
Since 2020, debt-to-GDP is up a whopping 20% after the government's massive borrowing spree.
Simply put, this is unsustainable." -TKL (picture 5)
As you can see in the picture the red line is based on the 'optimist' forecast by the CBO.
As mentioned at the start of this week's 'Weekly Recap' the world is changing that hasn't happened before in our lifetimes but has many times in history.
Please watch the following video by Ray Dalio in which he explains the 500 years of economic rise and downturns of nations brilliantly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=de7o5anFfpSmqVno&v=xguam0TKMw8&feature=youtu.be👉🏽The Federal Reserve’s expenses exceeded its earnings in 2023 by $114.3 billion — its largest operating loss ever. Source: https://archive.ph/7rcCv
"In plain English: The Fed printed $114B (net) out of thin air & handed it to banks, essentially to bribe them not to lend excess reserves into the economy."- Luke Gromen
👉🏽"Since 2008 the monetary base expanded during times of Fed intervention and shrunk during times of QT.
Markets bottomed in October 2022 as the shrinking of the monetary base ended.
It has expanded since then. Hence the question:
What's this then?" - Sven Henrich (picture 6)
Answer: Fiscal dominance.
👉🏽 SWIFT is planning the launch of a new central bank digital currency platform in 12-24 months. (source: Reuters)
Kinda funny innit? The world banks are on the brink of collapse (DEBT) and switch everyone over to their new CBDC in 2024-2025 and stop printing physical cash. According to the central bank's white papers (BoE, ECB), they are planning to release CBDCs in 2025. It's not like they are hiding it. It's just that nobody is bothering at the moment.
I don't know about you but I stick with my 12-24 words!
CBDC is financial slavery.
👉🏽Now let's put another phrase in the mix. Financial Colonialism...
"Over the next two years, low-income countries need to refinance about $60 billion of external debt each year, about three times the average in the decade through 2020. More in this blog:"
Low-income countries never seem to be able to pay back their debts. This might be the reason why they got to be low-income in the first place, innit?
Anyway, low-income countries need to mine Bitcoin (Africa, South America, etc) and escape the debt slavery by the central bankers / IMF / World Bank.
👉🏽"Core PCE inflation, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve looks at most, declined to 2.78% in February. This marks the slowest pace of core inflation in nearly two years. Given that the Fed needs little to start cutting rates from levels that should be highly restrictive, assuming a neutral rate of 2.50%, markets price a 70% chance of the first rate cut in June. Hence, equities up, gold up, yields down." - Jeroen Blokland
👉🏽Commodity prices across the board seem to be permanently elevated.
Cocoa prices have skyrocketed to nearly $10,000, a fresh all-time high.
In 2024 alone, Cocoa prices are up 130% and outperforming most assets.
To put this in perspective, Nvidia, one of the hottest stocks in the world, is up ~30% LESS than Cocoa in 2024.
Cocoa prices are at record highs due to the:
* Weather damage in West Africa
* Supply constraints
* Increased demand
* Poor farmer returns
* EU rules impacting supply
First, it was Orange Juice and Olive Oil, now it's Cocoa prices exploding.
Commodity prices are outperforming many hedge funds.
The days of low oil prices are gone and consumers are feeling the pain.
The purchasing power of the US Dollar is down over 20% in just 4 years.
👉🏽France's public sector deficit for 2023 climbed to 5.5% of GDP, or €154bn, statistics agency INSEE said, undermining President Macron’s credibility as an econ reformer capable of resolving the country’s fiscal challenges. The earlier official govt deficit est was 4.9% of GDP.
The last time France didn't have a budget deficit: 1974
👉🏽Palestinian banks could be cut off from the Israeli banking system starting next week following.
The decision made by Israel's finance minister to isolate Palestinian Authority banks would paralyze the Palestinian economy. Anyway, Bitcoin fixed this! (source: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-may-cut-off-palestinian-banks-global-banking-system-next-week?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Social_Traffic&utm_content=ap_6ej2zdsxqj
👉🏽65 million AT&T customers have had their personal data leaked on the dark web. Yikes! That's a lot of social security numbers on the dark web.
👉🏽"Warren Buffett, the billionaire head of Berkshire Hathaway, will probably go down as the greatest investor in history... Berkshire shares have seen an average annual return of 20.0%..."
Meanwhile: https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1774577333820629449
Just some members of Congress outperforming the greatest investor in history. we are surely fortunate to be represented by such extraordinary talents." - Edward Snowden (picture 7)
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Lyn is one of my favorite macroeconomists. The interview below is her most recent interview about U.S. fiscal dominance, China, energy, tech, and Broken Money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVFkv7fezxE
Anyway, that's it for today.
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption 
Good morning Nostr💜🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption 
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"Thanks to human ingenuity and progress, life was meant to become increasingly affordable over time.
Government fiat currency is literally designed to obscure this phenomenon and consistently leech productivity and purchasing power gains from its citizens via inflation (monetary debasement).
As it turns out, Bitcoin fixes this.
And Bitcoin will help usher in the next age of human flourishing.”
― Dr. Jeff Ross
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Let me start this weekly recap with some encouragement for the new group of hodlers.
A normal Bitcoin bullrun pullback is 30%. Back in December, we were already on the longest winning streak in Bitcoin's history. There is no bull market without dips.
"If you're new to Bitcoin and jealous of HODLers who bought earlier, don't be.
They went through hell, and now it's your turn.
Last week's dip is nothing. Get used to it.
Learn to manage your emotions.
And if you are stressing out day and night, sell until it no longer stresses you out.
Buy Bitcoin with money you won't need for +4 years.
Bitcoin is a long-term hold, not a short-term trade."
➡️Last weekend we received the news that anonymous 'crypto' wallets are now illegal in the EU. WRONG!
I have shared my view on Instagram, so let me repeat it here.
In short:
Unhosted to unhosted is still legal.
Unhosted to hosted will require KYC.
The draft bill/legislation isn't 'live' yet. There will be a final vote on the matter on the 22nd of April. It will go into force three years (!) after publication in the EU’s journal. No earlier than 2027/2028. It’s ugly legislation, as is the direction the EU is heading in, but the current draft bill isn’t as dramatic as some media state it is.
I will quote Freddie New on this matter:
"This needs to be taken seriously but, as always, it's crucial to read the text of the actual legislation. TLDR Self-custody is not illegal:
1. This is a prohibition of anonymity, not of Bitcoin. If you can prove eg through signing a message, that you control the keys to an address, it is not anonymous and is then linked to you. I understand that
Trezor and Swiss Bitcoin Pay are already working on UX to enable this.
2. The most apparent effect will be increased customer due diligence before you transfer in and out of self-custody.
3. Your coins in self custody, and self-custody itself, are unaffected. The wording clearly states, in bold, "The prohibition does not apply to providers of hardware and software or providers of self-hosted wallets insofar as they do not possess access to or control over those crypto asset wallets."
Don't panic - read the actual source:
https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-6220-2024-REV-1/en/pdf
For the Dutch readers, please read Peter Slagter's thread for more info:
https://twitter.com/pesla/status/1771509534487380158
For all readers, please read the excellent thread by Patrick Hansen:
https://twitter.com/paddi_hansen/status/1771929859704389954
But let me make one thing very clear. What makes the EU regulators think they have any right to know anything about any transaction you have made?
"It prohibition of privacy, one of Bitcoins core values. So on a deeper level, IT IS being made illegal. Just because they cannot make it practically illegal, they make its ideological fundaments illegal."
So no, it isn't as alarming as most people on Twitter and Instagram put online. Point blank misinformation, but from a privacy point of view, I do think it's alarming. A private key is a secret. Only the most tyrannical governments demand you reveal all your secrets to them.
But I also view this as really the EU just codifying for Bitcoin. It's a recognition that it is real, here to stay and not a tulip. Bitcoin is private property. Decentralized digital property is a new concept. In the long term, as always, governments will be the ones who need to adapt. The change may be radical.
➡️"Average Bitcoin transaction fees have not increased in Bitcoin terms over the past decade, despite system utilization increasing"- Pierre Rochard
(Picture 2)
➡️MicroStrategy acquire an additional 9,245 BTC for $623 million.
They now HODL 214,246 Bitcoin at an average price of $35,160 per bitcoin.
On top of that MicroStrategy also raised $600m for 7 years with a tiny 0.875% interest rate.
$100m more than the initial announcement.
➡️On the day we received the news that the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years (see for more info on that topic segment Macro & Geopolitics), we also received the news that the world's biggest pension fund, Japan's $1.4 Trillion Government Pension Investment fund, is looking into buying Bitcoin. They are exploring (asking for more information) about Bitcoin as a 'diversification tool. ".
Now ask yourself:
"What happens when EVERY pension fund in the world wants Bitcoin?
Every government?
Every central bank?
Keep in mind Bitcoin is hovering around 2021's all-time high...
Even adjusted for inflation we should be around $80,000.
If you haven't bought yet and you're waiting for a dip, you're gambling.
I hope it happens because I'll buy more.
But if it doesn't?
You'll lose 50-75% of your purchasing power."
Bitcoin is the only way pensions will be able to fill their funding gaps in the coming decade.
➡️$840B global bank Standard Charted says "The gold analogy remains a good starting point for estimating the ‘correct’ Bitcoin price level".
Gold market cap = $14 Trillion
Bitcoin market cap = $1.4 Trillion
Bitcoin at $680,000 would equal Gold's market cap.
Now this is just an analogy, not a guaranteed forecast.
➡️Are you ready for the Bitcoin halving or do you need to stack more Bitcoin? Approximately on the 20th of April, the halving will take place.
➡️ "Despite Bitcoin being up 128% over the last 12 months and down 13% in the last ~8 days, 67.6% of coins have not moved in over a year." https://unchained.com/hodlwaves?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3-20-2024
"The percentage of coins not moving remains elevated compared to previous cycles.
IMO, this is a sign Bitcoin remains in the early stages of a bull market.
The fact that this volatility hasn't shaken many coins, is very promising. Supply is tight.
If history repeats, coins will only move at vastly higher prices."- Joe Burnett
➡️Bitcoin ETF news from last week:
On the 18th/19th of March: Biggest outflow from Grayscale yet.
On a day when GBTC saw record liquidations (to meet bankruptcy obligations of Genesis and others) and when Bitcoin tumbled, Blackrock's IBIT saw a surge of inflows. ETF demand is relentless and price indiscriminate."
GBTC has not had ONE DAY of net inflows since it converted to a spot ETF.
On the 18th of March, they recorded $643 million in outflows—the single biggest individual ETF outflow in nearly 15 years.
The second biggest?
Also GBTC, on January 22nd when it had a $641mm outflow.
They have shed ~37% of their Bitcoin since launch, with about ~385,000 BTC left to dump.
On the 23rd of March: "Nearly $1 billion of net outflows this week for the spot Bitcoin ETF."
➡️BlackRock Head of Digital says "For our clients, Bitcoin is overwhelmingly the number one focus".
➡️Argentina's high inflation (276%) is driving citizens to Bitcoin as a hedge, with exchanges reporting the highest weekly Bitcoin purchase volume in 20 months (picture 3)
➡️Bitcoin supply on exchanges hit 4-year lows, dropping almost 40%, with no slowing signals ahead of the upcoming halving, according to CryptoQuant
➡️Many Bitcoin miners are moving rigs out of the US to Africa and South America ahead of the halving, per Bloomberg.
600K S19 machines are on the move due to cheaper energy. These rigs, once costing $11,500 each, may be worth only $350 after the halving.
➡️Bitcoin is a worldwide problem," says Iceland Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir.
"With its abundant, CO2-neutral, and virtually free geothermal energy source, Iceland could build the largest and most prosperous empire humankind has ever seen - just by mining Bitcoin.
But no, I know shit about Bitcoin, BuT iTs BaD FoR tHe EnViRoNmEnT because WEF said so."
She is left-green (the worst possible combination).
Source FT interview: https://archive.ph/f2phT
➡️SEC is investigating the Ethereum Foundation and wants to define Ethereum as a security.
Yeah, nobody saw that coming...right?
"Whether ETH is legally classified as a security or not, it's a worthless distraction compared to Bitcoin. And remember, when you buy an altcoin, you become the exit liquidity for preminers and centralized controllers of the altcoin.
When you buy Bitcoin, you become financially self-sovereign."
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have the PCE deflator, consumer confidence, and durable goods orders. In Europe, it’s the euro area consumer confidence, money supply, and French, Italian, and Spanish flash inflation. In Asia, we have the Japan and Australian CPI.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽Let's start with some charts and some explanations.
132,000 households versus 66,000,000 households.
35 years worth of data.
2 parties (red or blue), 1 central bank (the Fed), 1 result: Ever wider disparity.
(Picture 5)
Nothing stops this train and nothing will change if we don't get to the underlying issue:
developing monetary policy.
Just look at what happens when you add M2.
(Picture 4)
What does M2 stand for:
The M2 money supply is a broader measure of the money stock within an economy, which includes all components of the M1 money supply along with additional types of financial assets. M1 money supply represents the most liquid forms of money, such as physical currency (coins and banknotes) and demand deposits (checking accounts). M2 money supply, on the other hand, encompasses M1 money supply and adds near money or less liquid financial assets, such as savings deposits, time deposits (under $100,000), and money market mutual funds.
M2 is mostly used as a classification for money supply in the eurozone and America;
Central banks and monetary authorities closely monitor M2 money supply as part of their monetary policy framework. By adjusting interest rates, open market operations, and reserve requirements, central banks can influence the growth rate of M2 money supply to achieve their objectives, such as price stability and sustainable economic growth
To sum it up we call this the Cantillon effect.
"The logic of the Cantillon effect is incontrovertible. Of course, money printing will create winners and losers. If it didn’t, the government and run-of-the-mill counterfeiters wouldn’t have an incentive to run their printing presses.
The data confirms Cantillon’s insight from the 1730s. Measures of money printing and bank credit expansion are highly correlated with a variety of measures of economic inequality. While any healthy economy would have some inequality, it’s certain that putting the government in charge of the money supply has exacerbated it."
Source/more info:
https://mises.org/mises-wire/four-charts-show-cantillon-effects
Whilst at it, read the following article: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/insanity-our-world-driven-money-printing
👉🏽On the 19th of March Fed Chair J. Powell: "Appropriate to slow pace of asset runoff soon."
Translated: The Reverse Repo is getting to a level that will cause The Fed to compete with the Treasury for liquidity, so we will soon end QT.
OR
US inflation is almost at an acceptable level.
The Fed needs to taper QT once the RRF is drained and as that reserve level approaches $2.5T, the key level he has indicated before. Once below that, they worry about another repo spike a la 2019. QT must stop to allow the Treasury room to keep floating more debt.
What does this all mean for Bitcoin (assets in general), a massive tailwind as this all is a liquidity game.
What does 'runoff' mean? QT
What does 'reverse repo' mean? It is basically banks' money coming back out of lockup at the Fed and into banks' hands. Kind of like QE.
Remember 'history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.'
"Bernanke (2008): QE is temporary and the Fed’s balance sheet will soon be lower than when we started.
Powell (2024): It’s appropriate to slow the pace of QT fairly soon"
(Picture 6)
$20 trillion fed balance sheet incoming.
Global government debt is a record $82 trillion:
up $20 trillion since Covid
up $50 trillion since Lehman
... and up 7x this century in under 25 years!
The US debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 123.7%, near the all-time record of 126.2% reached in 2020
It is estimated by the Congressional Budget Office that in 2034 it will reach 130.6%.
Since 1800, 51 out of 52 countries with a ratio above 130% have defaulted
(Picture 7)
Anyway, if you want to know more about the Fed meeting from last week I highly recommend James Lavish's thread:
https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1770495805067264230
👉🏽"POWELL: DON'T SEE CRACKS IN THE LABOR MARKET
what cracks? All new jobs since 2018 have gone to immigrants, and 250,000 illegals enter the country every month." -Zerohedge
Since November, the US has lost 1.8 million full-time jobs.
In the last 12 months, the US labor market has seen a 921,000 increase in part-time jobs while the full-time jobs count declined by 284,000
Headlines: The US has been adding jobs for 38 straight months.
Yikes!
👉🏽 On the 19th of March Japan raised their interest rates for 1st time in 17 years (2007) amid higher inflation & rising wages. BoJ also scrapped its complex yield curve control program while pledging to continue buying long-term govt bonds as needed. It also ended its purchases of ETFs. Nikkei gained 0.7%, 10y Japanese yields dropped 3bps to 0.73%.
By raising rates BoJ is putting pressure on other central banks. Likely we will see rate cuts & restart of QE in the near future by the Fed, and probably also the ECB.
Remember Japan holds over $1.1 Trillion in just US debt alone. The BoJ will become net sellers of this debt very soon. At a time when the US needs more net buyers of its debt.
Great thread by MacroAlf on the implications for global markets:
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1769991687504384463
👉🏽Last week I already mentioned:
"KPMG study among the 350 CFOs of the largest German subsidiaries of international groups shows that there is record-high skepticism with respect to Germany as an investment destination..."
Not only on the Bitcoin - unhosted wallet part the EU seems to be allergic to new and better tech.
The boss of Dow Inc. said the price of electricity in Europe is so high that there are doubts about the long-term future of some of the chemical company’s industrial customers in the region.
Source: https://archive.ph/V6r0r
The decision to close German nuclear power plants will go into history books as the biggest economic, geopolitical, and environmental mistake since WWII.
"In this context: Salzgitter AG estimates that reducing CO2 emissions in the European steel industry to 95% requires 400TWh of additional power annually. This is >2/3 of what Germany currently produces in total.
Source: The long road to green steel | Economy | DW | 07/26/2019" - Swen Roschlau
(Picture 8)
👉🏽China has started blocking the use of Intel and AMD chips in government computers.
US sanctions stopped sales of advanced chips to China, so they quickly developed their own technology.
👉🏽Every generation has its own bubble. Human nature does not change, only the bubbles change. (Picture 9)
"Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes." ~ Jesse Livermore
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
https://youtu.be/48r0VO9m1yc?si=tN0woyKHj8BLr5Pb
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption 
I am not sure how you want to incorporate Lightning in that metric?
Good morning / good afternoon 🧡💜
Great way to start
the day.🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption 
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️On the 16th of March, we received the news that $88m leveraged Bitcoin positions were liquidated in 24 hours.
Losing money in a bull market…REKT.
➡️"The first Bisq 2 beta release is now available. Interested?
Watch http://bisq.network/bisq-2 and:
1. run Bisq 2;
2. trade with Bisq Easy (or lurk while others do);
3. give feedback in the new p2p group chat." - Bisq
I always recommend Bisq as one of the primary peer-to-peer market on-ramps to Bitcoin (for the more advanced users). So I am very excited to see the roadmap and look forward to the development and use of version 2. (picture 4)
➡️"If Bitcoin was a country, it would rank somewhere between 10-20 in population size.
Something tells me we're going to enter the top 10 very soon." - Sam Wouters (picture 2)
Source: https://river.com/learn/how-many-people-use-bitcoin/
➡️The US government is still holding seized Bitcoin equivalent to ~1% of the total supply with a 2.4X unrealized profit. They haven’t sold any since July 2023 when Bitcoin was $30K.
➡️The Bitcoin network is projected to settle $17.5 trillion worth of BTC this year.
➡️Bitcoin Network Difficulty sets a new ALL-TIME HIGH of 83.95 T
This is nearly double the reading from one year ago (43.55 T) The global competition to mine
Bitcoin continues to heat up.
➡️New Record Bitcoin Hashrate 600,000,000,000,000,000,000x per second
➡️Wealth advisor platform Cetera just approved Bitcoin ETFs to be offered to clients.
It has $475 billion in assets under administration and $190 billion in assets under management.
➡️ $7.2 trillion Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley says they're not going to offer spot Bitcoin ETFs "unless the asset class changes."
"Bitcoin is just too volatile and it's not a store of value."
➡️“Mr. 100” bought 810 of the 900 newly mined Bitcoin on the 14th of March, so the ETFs had to find other willing sellers.
➡️On the 13th of March, we had the first $1B inflow day into the Bitcoin Bitcoin ETFs. Madness! And BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF total inflows overtook Grayscale's total outflows for the first time! You are simply not bullish enough.
Really... you are not bullish enough: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-has-6-months-until-etf-liquidity-crisis
➡️Last week I mentioned that VanECK announced they cut their management fee to ZERO until March 2025. Their Bitcoin ETF doing HUGE trading volume a day after.
https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1767596983026364663
➡️"Blackrock Bitcoin Inflows
34.6K Last Week
31.4K The Week Before
34.3K The Week Before That
Any wild guesses about how much they buy this week?"
➡️ El Salvador will be able to pay off the IMF if Bitcoin hits $100K, and never have to talk to them again.
They’ll probably be the most attractive country in the world to go live in just because they embraced
Bitcoin,” says billionaire Tim Draper.
More news on El Salvador: El Salvador voted to drop their income tax from 30% to 0% for money transfers and international investments.
Oh, by the way, El Salvador’s President, Nayib Bukele :
“Your TAX money is NOT funding your government.
Your government is funded by printing money out of thin air.
So, if your central bank is printing money to fund the government, then WHY do we need to pay taxes?"
Now to make things extra special...
On the 15th of March, Nayib Bukele announced that they decided to transfer a big chunk of our Bitcoin to a cold wallet and store that cold wallet in a physical vault within our national territory.
You can call it our first Bitcoin piggy bank. It's not much, but it's honest work.
https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1768425845163503738
Pretty incredible to see a President tweeting about Bitcoin nation-state self-custody. And what do plebs do? El Salvador released its Bitcoin cold wallet address & you psychopaths are sending donations. Classic.
Just a thought...If El Salvador can be transparent with their reserves why can’t the United States government or the ECB/Central Banks?
Why can’t we see the gold?
➡️El Salvador President Nayib Bukele says the country will purchase one Bitcoin every day until it becomes unaffordable with fiat currencies.
➡️ On the 12th of March nostr:npub1sqzr42dj8vx32yd5jcvvl3ytux45kl0etgf6y2ymjvmd7lqmuwmqk9vk7v rolled out their lightning functionality within the app.
100,000 Relai users now have access to ultra-fast and cheap Bitcoin transactions.
Why Lightning? "The Lightning Network has quickly emerged as the go-to scaling solution for the Bitcoin network. Not only is it great to use Bitcoin in everyday situations, such as paying for a cup of coffee or goods in a shop, but it’s also incredibly fast and much cheaper compared to on-chain transactions."
Relai: "We do this by working closely with two amazing Bitcoin companies! One is our node and implementation provider, Blockstream. We use their Core Lightning implementation, which allows us to be flexible with other Lightning setups as well as using their node. Our second partner is Breez, with their SDK. This provides us access to a wide range of Lightning Service Providers (LSPs) and partners in the network."
Just update your app. To use Lightning, you need to update to the latest version 2.8.1.
Not using Relai at the moment? Download the app https://relai.app/, use the code CRYPTOFRIDAY, and get a 0.5% fee reduction on your weekly/monthly Bitcoin purchases.
➡️Michael Saylor says Bitcoin is going to "eat" gold and has all the great attributes of gold.
All the reasons why Bitcoin will demonetize Gold:
"-Gold was the money of the analog world, and Bitcoin is the money of the Digital World, it is superior in every way for a digital age.
-Precious metal markets have been highly manipulated for a long time.
-Elastic Supply unlike Bitcoin's inelastic supply
-Alleged rehypothecation of precious metal paper contracts (The paper price of Gold) artificially increasing supply.
-Price action has been slow and tedious, with low gains for the last 10 years.
-Much Harder to store and secure
-Much Harder to Transport
-Can be counterfeited in some circumstances
-Unprogrammable
-Centralised"
➡️Bitcoin’s allocation in investor portfolios is 3.7 times greater than that of gold, according to JP Morgan analysts.
➡️On the 11th of March, "Bitcoin just bumped silver to become the 8th most valuable asset in the world.
All else held equal...
at $105K, it jumps Saudi Aramco,
at $137K, it enters the top 3,
and at $153K, Bitcoin becomes the second most valuable asset in the world." - James Lavish
➡️The new Biden budget proposal plans to bring in more than $2.3 billion in the next five years by taxing bitcoin miners.
Biden expects the Bitcoin mining industry to 10x in the United States over the next decade, this would imply a $6 million price target for Bitcoin. Even more bullish than the wash trading line item.
American dynamism and energy abundance will make this possible!
The 30% tax is just absurd. This must be stopped at all costs.
First read the following tweet: https://twitter.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1767371855512432900
Talking about Biden, check out their budget for fiscal year 2025 below, segment macro.
➡️In ~32 days, Bitcoin becomes the hardest asset known to man, with its supply growth rate dropping to half that of gold. This will be Bitcoin's biggest and most important Halving ever. Are you ready?
➡️Merryn Webb, a Senior Columnist at Bloomberg, REFUSES to interview Adam Back, one of the few people ACTUALLY cited in the Bitcoin whitepaper, simply because he has LASER EYES in his X (formerly Twitter) profile picture.
Mainstream media at his finest! (picture 5)
➡️Just a reminder that the FTX bankruptcy estate has 58 million Solana tokens to sell, which is over 13% of the total Solana supply, or about 8.5 billion dollars in today's prices.
➡️The owner of the largest exhibition venue in the Middle East, Abu Dhabi’s ADNEC Group, is to launch the region's first Bitcoin MENA Conference set to take place December 9-10 2024.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have the Federal Reserve meeting and press conference with Fed Chair Powell. In the UK, we have the Bank of England meeting and CPI data, and in Europe, the latest ZEW surveys and several ECB speakers. In Asia we start the week with a key policy meeting at the Bank of Japan, more central bank meetings in Indonesia, Taiwan, and Australia, and monthly activity data for China.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽Powell: ‘There will be bank failures’ caused by commercial real estate losses
But not the really big banks, he promises, those will be fine.'
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"BIDEN UNVEILS $7.3 TRILLION BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2025, THE BIDEN BUDGET SEES US DEBT HITTING $45 TRILLION IN A DECADE" was the headline.
Just absurd, that the Biden administration thinks that the US DEBT will hit $45 trillion in a decade.
None of their models now or in the past, and recent years came through. We're at nearly $35 trillion now with a new trillion added every 100 days.
You know what is even more absurd and I quote Brian Sullivan: "DC strategist email note this morning lays it out well.
The budget deficit will grow another $16 TRILLION over the next 10 years. That *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.
Without them, the deficit will grow by $19 trillion.
That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.
No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math."
Balaji: "Linear extrapolation gives $50 trillion.
Exponential is more like $70 trillion.
And Bitcoin remains at 21 million."
(picture 3)
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
Oh, just to make things worse, it took 63% of all personal income taxes in Feb to pay the interest on the debt - no roads, no military, no schools, no social security - JUST INTEREST.
👉🏽On the 12th of March US CPI came in.
The 'hot' CPI prints show that headline inflation is sticky around the 3% level.
"On a 3-month annualized basis, Supercore inflation jumped a whopping 6.9% in February.
Core services less shelter inflation is a key metric that the Fed follows, also known as Supercore inflation.
In January, this metric jumped by 0.7% month-over-month, the biggest jump since September 2022.
In February, it was up another 0.5% month-over-month after multiple increases in 2023.
All while real wage growth is turning negative again.
In general February CPI inflation rate RISES to 3.2%, above expectations of 3.1%.
Core CPI inflation fell to 3.8%, ABOVE expectations of 3.7%.
This is the 35th consecutive month with inflation above 3% and the second straight increase.
The fight against inflation is far from over." -TKL
👉🏽"Prediction markets are officially expecting LESS than 3 interest rate cuts in 2024.
After CPI inflation increased for the 2nd straight month, prediction markets saw 65 bps of rate cuts in 2024, according to Kahlsi.
This is equivalent to ~2.6 rate cuts and down SHARPLY from 6 rate cuts seen just 2 months ago.
It's also the first time this year that markets see LESS rate cuts than Fed guidance.
Core inflation is still at 3.8%, nearly DOUBLE the Fed's long-term target.
Could we see ZERO rate cuts in 2024?" -TKL
Still up only, especially in a year when we have a presidential election in the US.
Do you want to know more about the rates bit, please read the following tweet by Luke Gromen:
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1767556897626898876
👉🏽"For the first time in history, interest payments on non-mortgage debt in the US are equivalent to interest on mortgage debt, at $575 billion.
Exactly 3 years ago, interest on non-mortgage debt was at $250 billion.
This marks a 130% increase in household interest expense on non-mortgage items over just 3 years.
Furthermore, 3 years ago interest on non-mortgage debt was HALF of interest on mortgage debt.
Americans are "fighting" inflation with high interest-rate debt.
36% of US adults have more credit card debt than money in a savings account.
Also, the average American household owes $7,951 in credit card debt.
As rates rise, the pain of this debt is getting even worse.
How is this sustainable?" - TKL
👉🏽"ECB plans to roll out digital Euro CBDC starting in 2025. They claim it’ll be “private,” but it will not be, given Lagarde already wants to throw you in jail for a 1000+ euro anonymous cash payment.
Study Bitcoin & opt out of this totalitarian surveillance token." -WalkerAmerica
👉🏽"KPMG study among the 350 CFOs of the largest German subsidiaries of international groups shows that there is record-high skepticism with respect to Germany as an investment destination
Foreign investors are pessimistic and the attractiveness of the country is at risk: 46% of respondents believe that other countries and regions are growing faster than Germany and intend to prioritize investments there in the next five years
Energy transition, digitalization, upgrades, and infrastructure have opened up great business opportunities for international companies, but
all location factors are deteriorating with increasing momentum." - Nikolay Kolarov
In the past year, I have spoken on the deindustrialization of Germany multiple times. Everyone is aware of German deindustrialization by now, unfortunately, industrial production in other major European countries is not looking much better.
(picture 6)
(picture 7)
👉🏽Goldman points out that the Turkish central bank is about to lose control as "FX position deteriorates sharply". Is the Turkish lira on the verge of terminal collapse?
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Another great What Bitcoin Did podcast.
The Perfect Bitcoin Allocation with Raphael Zagury
- Bitcoin vs real estate
- How ETFs changed everything
- Valuing Bitcoin
- The best portfolio allocation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqsGIRhFkvM
Anyway, that's it for today.
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/XAD4T2CRuqXq49dmviDqVp.webp
https://void.cat/d/KZRyaJazCJxsTqNFrDqpn1.webp
https://void.cat/d/Px2jCp4Rp4r6TWQTsCGAMk.webp
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"The internet reorganized the world and started the transition from the Analog Age to the Digital Age.
Bitcoin is the logical next step and has already begun repricing the world.
This potent combination will have (is already having) significant implications for individuals, families, businesses, and even nation-states.
Long-standing power structures are shifting before our very eyes... And this is just the beginning.
The seeds for the coming Age of Legends have already sprouted.
Cling to the old ways and methods and social hierarchies and currencies if you want to, but it's much more interesting to help build a better tomorrow for humanity.
Bitcoin is Better Money for a Better World." - Dr. Jeff Ross
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️El Salvador is up $74 million (+60%) and now $200M on their Bitcoin holdings.
Their GDP is ~$30B and growing at 2% a 10x in Bitcoin would add 7% nearly quadruple GDP growth
Emerging economies are going to see this and say wtf are we doing? Hello, game theory!
➡️Arkham claims to have identified Tesla and SpaceX's on-chain Bitcoin holdings.
"We believe Tesla currently has 11.51K (BTC $780M) across 68 addresses and SpaceX has 8.29K BTC ($560M) across 28 addresses, consistent with the financial statements of Tesla and SpaceX.”
➡️Bitcoin privacy summarized:
1. Without KYC data your Bitcoin is pseudonymous.
2. Coinjoin, like Whirlpool, enables you to obscure your activity.
3. Running a node (over Tor) gives you protection at the network level, and eliminates trusted 3rd parties.
➡️The latest Brave Wallet desktop update (v1.63) introduces all main Bitcoin address formats, including Legacy, Nested SegWit, Native SegWit, and Taproot.
Great step by Brave and I would recommend each and everyone to use Brave as your standard browser. The logical next step would be to incorporate Lightning into their wallet.
➡️37 days to the Bitcoin halving when BTC inflation drops to less than half that of gold which makes it the hardest money in the history of humanity.
On top of that Bitcoin:
"ETFs are buying 10k Bitcoin per day and only 900 are mined. They get the rest from weak hands, pRoFiT takers, and people who broke even from the last bull run. These people will soon be empty. Then the ETFs will bid for the BTC held by laser-eyed 80 IQ psychopaths. Good luck!" Bitcoin for Freedom
Are you ready?
➡️Do you remember how the ETC posted on Twitter that Bitcoin has failed to become a global decentralized digital currency, instead falling victim to fraud and manipulation?
The recent approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is costly, slow, and inconvenient.
No, you don't remember it, and neither do I....haha
(picture 2)
➡️The state of Louisiana becomes the eleventh state to officially introduce a bill to protect fundamental Bitcoin rights.
This bill, sponsored by @WrightLouisiana, protects:
Your right to buy, sell, and trade Bitcoin
Your right to mine & validate
Your right to self-custody Bitcoin
Your right to run a full node
The momentum for Bitcoin is building at an impressive pace, with Louisiana stepping into the spotlight as the eleventh state to introduce legislation aimed at protecting Bitcoin users' fundamental rights.
➡️Stanford Endowment has bought Bitcoin at 45k.
In February, pitched IBIT to Blyth Fund, the student-run fund which manages a portion of Stanford's Endowment.
Bitcoin is now ~7% of the portfolio.
The thesis, which tried to remain as objectively bullish as possible while catering to an audience of skeptics, revolved around 3 key factors:
-ETF Inflows
-Cyclicality of Bitcoin
-Schelling Point For Monetary Chaos + War
Here's the pitch (25min) that convinced them to buy:
https://twitter.com/kolelee_/status/1764745867435921745
➡️The whole world’s getting repriced in terms of Bitcoin…and there’ll only ever be 21 million…which means everything’s still overvalued by about 330x.
https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1764661974074286093
This means Bitcoin is undervalued by 330x.
➡️"The Senator who said “Bitcoin can open the doors of corruption in El Salvador," was just indicted on 18 counts for obstruction of justice.
Federal Prosecutors seized $100,000 in gold bars and $480,000 in hidden cash from his home.
Quelle dommage…" - RaderHits
➡️Germany's largest stock exchange Deutsche Börse has launched a Bitcoin and crypto trading platform for institutions.
➡️On the 5th of March: "The ten Bitcoin ETFs did $10b in volume today, smashing the previous record set last Wed. Volatility and volume go hand in hand with ETFs so not totally surprised. That said these are bananas numbers for ETfs under 2mo old."
Although this sounds great, five companies (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META) are hoarding a combined $517B of cash.
A mere 1.67% of that is equivalent to the $8.5B of total net inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs, so far.
Ask yourself what will happen if Blackrock advisors are talking to these five companies to allocate 1-5% into Bitcoin via IBIT.
We are not there yet, and I quote Joe Carlasara:
"The bigger the realized market cap of Bitcoin, the MORE attractive it becomes to big money.
Countless players still view the Bitcoin market as too small to merit attention. This changes when the market is 3x to 5x larger.
As a fund manager who I speak with regularly said, “If it can sustain itself above $100,000, we might start to nibble.”
Understanding this dynamic is key."
➡️On the 7th of March, we received the news that BlackRock filed with the SEC to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs for its $15B Global Allocation Fund. Its $36b Strategic Income Opportunities Fund will also buy Bitcoin ETFs, as announced last week.
"Blackrock has $10 Trillion in assets under management.
Another $20 Trillion of funds use their Aladdin platform to make portfolio allocations.
BlackRock has stated that the optimal Bitcoin allocation is 84.9% of a portfolio.
Of course, few will do this, but we now have the world's biggest fund manager telling investors to get off zero.
Ernst & Young estimates that $200 Trillion of Institutional assets could not touch Bitcoin until an ETF was approved. "
➡️On the 8th of March: "BlackRock Bitcoin ETF is set to break $10 BILLION in total flows today.
Fidelity is a strong second place with $6 Billion.
Demand is strong and is set to grow as more investment platforms and banks allow these ETFs onto their platforms." - Bitcoin Archive
Just for some context on the Fidelity bit.
Fidelity Bitcoin ETF smashed through its former record high with $473 million of inflows on the 7th of March.
➡️Today we received the news that VanEck drops Bitcoin ETF fees to ZERO until March 2025! You have no clue what is coming! Hell, game theory!
➡️After the 8th of March, BlackRock passed Microstrategy on Bitcoin owned.
Microstrategy took 3.5 years to reach it, and BlackRock made it in less than 2 months. yikes
Blackrock saw its biggest one-day inflow ever this week, acquiring 12.6K Bitcoin ($842M).
Their total holdings on the 9th of March stood at 196K Bitcoin. (picture 8)
➡️Saylor is a freaking Chad though. MicroStrategy approaching $8 BILLION in profit on their Bitcoin position. And today we received the news that
MicroStrategy acquired an additional 12,000 BTC for $821.7M MSTR now hodls 205,000 BTC acquired for ~$6.91B at an average price of $33,706 per Bitcoin.
Pretty crazy stats:
The New 9 have flipped GBTC.
IBIT has flipped MSTR.
In general, "the first two months are officially in the books (it's felt like six) and the ten bitcoin ETFs now have over $55b in assets with exactly double that in volume at $110b. If these were the numbers at the end of the year I'd call them a success. To do it in eight weeks is simply absurd." - Eric Balchunas
Wall Street is now in Control.
➡️Billionaire entrepreneur, Mark Cuban, calls Bitcoin a great store of value and states that he expects the price to go up due to supply and demand. It wasn’t long ago he claimed Bitcoin was worthless.
Just remember, their change in tone didn't happen by accident. The narrative is changing.
➡️“OurBitcoin price target is now well above $1M by 2030, and with our new expectations for institutional involvement, the incremental price that we assume for institutions actually has more than doubled," says ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood
➡️Bitcoin miners recorded the second-highest daily revenue ever at $75.9M on March 6th, the same day Hut 8 closed a Canadian site due to power issues and high energy costs, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno.
➡️Bitcoin miners are returning to the market after bear market hibernation, burning record energy and buying $1B worth of mining equipment despite the impending halving, according to Bloomberg.
➡️The only thing rising faster than U.S. debt is the Bitcoin hash rate.
Hash is the real thing! Everything else is just noise.
➡️Bitcoin is demonetising Gold ETFs as the 'Store of Value' narrative takes hold.
Bitcoin ETFs are taking in billions, while Gold ETFs are bleeding assets.
Bitcoin ETFs are catching up to Gold ETFs for assets.
$54 for BTC
$96b for Gold
(picture 3)
Bitcoin ETF volume surpasses $100 BILLION
This exceeds total flows into all physical gold ETFs over the past five years
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have CPI, retail sales, and PPI. In Europe, it’s the euro area industrial production, Sweden and Norway CPI, and UK labor market data. In Asia, we have India and China's CPI and the PBOC’s MLF rate decision.
"The S&P 500 has hit a record 5180 and is now up an incredible 26% in just 4 months.
Since the October 2023 low, the S&P 500 has added nearly 1,100 points.
In just 88 trading days, the S&P 500 has added $9 TRILLION in market cap.
That's an average of $102 billion per trading day for 88 days straight.
Since the March 2020 pandemic low, the S&P 500 is up 137%." - TKL
👉🏽"Nvidia, the 3rd biggest company in the world, fell 10% in 30 minutes on the 8th of March.
That's a company with $2.3 trillion in market cap trading like a penny stock.
Is it weird that this feels completely normal now?" - TKL
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"New York Community Bank stock crashes 20%+ after reporting "material weakness in internal controls."
The weakness is reportedly related to loan review resulting from ineffective oversight and risk assessment.
NYCB is the same bank that acquired the collapse of Signature Bank during the regional bank crisis.
This comes just weeks after the bank posted an unexpected $260 million loss in Q4 2023.
The stock is now at its lowest level since 1997."
On the day I posted last week's Weekly Recap, see the part above, New York Community Bank crashed 42% and has trading halted. Yikes
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
Last week we received the news that the US payrolls were revised, again! January payrolls revised from 353K to... 229K
How many illegal immigrants were hired in February to make the Bidenomics "beat by 30K then revise it down by 50K next month" quota? Take a guess...
in February 1.2 million foreign-born workers (immigrants, both legal and illegal) found a new job. Meanwhile, 500K native-born American workers lost their jobs. And the bide admin is bragging about 250K jobs last month.
So what does that tell us...the market / financial economy rallies on what turns out to be false data and then rallies some more on the new false data and ignores the corrected data.
Rinse & repeat. Numbers don't mean a thing.
Just to give you some more info:
In the past year, the US has created 921,000 part-time jobs and lost 284,000 full-time jobs.
They just forget to mention this to the public. But Felipe, the headline jobs number says the US has added jobs for 38 straight months.
How is this possible?
Over the last 12 months, these full-time jobs have been replaced by 921,000 part-time jobs, according to Zerohedge.
The true number of workers employed in the United States right now is at its lowest since May 2023.
Last month, payrolls jumped by 275,000 but the total number of individuals employed fell by 184,000.
Just to give you some more details I quote Zerohedge:
"1. In the past year,
the US has lost 284K full-time jobs, these have been replaced with 921K part-time jobs
2. In February alone,
a record 1.2 million foreign-born jobs
were added.
3. In the past three months,
a record (ex-covid crash) 2.4 million native-born jobs have been lost,
including 494K jobs lost in February.
4. Most shocking,
since May 2018, there have been ZERO jobs created for native-born Americans. All jobs in the past 6 years have gone to immigrants, legal and illegal."
The US labor market is strong, right?
Here's a visual representation of the MASSIVE downward revisions in the jobs reports. (picture 4)
👉🏽"Credit card debt is now above the pre-covid trendline. The Savings rate... is not." - Zerohedge
(picture 5)
But hey, they say things like "the economy is strong", and "everything is fine.".
What you see is inflated debt from thin air using fake money. Eventually, UBI & CBDC will be offered in the depths of the crisis.
More on the DEBT bit...
"To put things into perspective: It took Uncle Sam 232 years to accumulate its first $10tn in debt, 9 years to accumulate its second, and 5 years to reach its third. The trip from $33 to $34tn in debt was a short one, requiring only 3 months, from Sep to Dec of 2023, Strategas has calculated."
(picture 6)
👉🏽ECB's Lagarde signals a June rate cut with 2% inflation in sight. Markets agree and price in 97bps cut for 2024.
At the same time in the US, FED chair Jerome Powell: "We are not looking for inflation to go all the way down to 2% but we do need more evidence".
Ergo: Grooming the sheep for 3% thievery,...I mean inflation.
I fully believe that the next decade(s) will be much more inflationary so the government continues to deficit spend 9print money to keep the economy artificially afloat.
👉🏽Gold has hit another record, but the volume of gold ETFs keeps falling. This indicates that demand is not coming from private or institutional investors, but that other players are stocking up on the precious metal. Central banks were a major driver of Gold prices in 2022/2023 and will likely continue to be so in 2024. This is ominous for the (current) monetary system.
👉🏽Meanwhile, in China, massive lines form across China as citizens rush to buy gold in an effort to preserve their wealth amidst a declining economy.
How long until they start finding ways to obtain Bitcoin?
👉🏽A couple of Weekly Recaps I shared some info on the average number of usual weekly hours of work in the main job across Europe.
"In the Netherlands, roughly half of all employees work 35 hours or less, and polls show that even more people would like to work less. The same trend occurs in many other Western countries as well. This is fine as long as you accept that GDP growth will be structurally lower because of this. Yet GDP growth remains one of the key ‘promises’ of every politician and central banker. To realize artificial growth, the same ‘magic’ ingredient is used over and over again. Debt! As a result, debt is now the primary ‘source’ of growth around the globe." - Jeroen Blokland (picture 7)
Now sometimes working less produces more. But that is not the case. Productivity has risen much faster in the US than in the Eurozone. So not only has the US a much stronger demographics than Europe, but also productivity is way better than Europe. Now the real question would be...how great is the quality of that productivity?
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/22089f01-8468-4905-8e36-fd35d2b2293e
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
A great What Bitcoin Did podcast. And please I urge you to watch the interview on YouTube because of the in-depth charts:
Bitcoin’s Biggest Bull Run with
@therationalroot
- The pace of this bull market
- Bitcoin ETF growth & flows
- What to expect post halving
- The changing dynamics of the market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fuek7IalU8&t=1818s
“I think we’ll just get to prices from a million to 10 million at some point, and then Bitcoin is going to be such a big currency that it just becomes a better currency than the US dollar obviously…that will also be a gradual transition.”Free knowledge!
Anyway, that's it for today.
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/BdimAjAFqXVnQfyaTQgGMg.webp
https://void.cat/d/YcQrb6FrGSy5ixQQcvKm8y.webp
https://void.cat/d/5uyFPidDeFNRotATz5kiTi.webp
https://void.cat/d/RLtZa6SbN3Bk3Doscf5K4V.webp
https://void.cat/d/JE6YV8sDP9Ngq4UFyUozvk.webp
“Bitcoiners become more conscientious consumers because they recognize the opportunity cost of parting with their bitcoin today.
They know that every particular purchase (e.g., dishwasher, laptop, holiday, etc.) will eventually become the most expensive one they ever make.” nostr:npub14hn6p34vegy4ckeklz8jq93mendym9asw8z2ej87x2wuwf8werasc6a32x
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #thepriceoftomorrow 
Forget the numbers, but I agree with the logic, just do the math and follow the trend. Everything priced in BTC is getting cheaper.
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #thepriceoftomorrow 
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"If the China mining ban and FTX selling billions of dollars of fake Bitcoin in 2021 did suppress the price, then it's likely that the real previous all-time high should have been > $100,000.
That would potentially explain how we're so close to new "highs" already.
If the price was suppressed in 2021, which it undoubtedly was to some extent, then maybe we’re just making normal progress back to the “would have been” all-time high of over $100,000.
It might be possible that bitcoin outperforms the muted returns seen last cycle. At the end of the day, bitcoin is objectively the world’s best money due to its superior monetary properties. 93% of all coins have already been mined and less than 1% of the world has a serious allocation. So get ready, this could get out of control quickly." - Joe Burnett
Very well put and succinct. I think Joe is right, I have been saying that last year also.
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Let's start the Weekly Recap with the tweet that made me spit out my coffee:
"Let's be honest
A lot of people did not expect Bitcoin to get back to ATH territory with Fed Funds at 5.33% and the average mortgage rate at 7.27%
It was a speculative, zero-interest rate, easy money phenomenon, they said.
Boy, do we have news for you!" - Alex Gladstein
Just imagine what will happen if they (the FED) will lower rates...just imagine.
➡️11 days ago, the European Central Bank said Bitcoin's fair value is zero.
Yesterday, BTC reached an all-time high vs the Euro.
Bitcoin is up 285% since the European Central Bank said Bitcoin was on "the road to irrelevance".
It was literally the bottom of the bear market.
➡️UK authorities push for regulation to seize your Bitcoin.
„Authorities will be able to retrieve crypto assets directly from exchanges and custodian wallet providers.“ https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2024/269/made/data.pdf
Get your Bitcoin off exchanges and into cold storage, now!
➡️ Australian bank, Commonwealth Bank, limits users’ ability to buy cryptocurrency as Bitcoin hits new ATH in the country.
"If they can control how you spend your money, it’s not your money."
➡️Balance of Bitcoin on OTC desks hits lowest levels since Q4 2018.
More on that topic...
➡️All in all last week Friday, just over $2.3B worth of Bitcoin left on exchanges. One of the biggest withdrawals in over 5 years. (Roughly $200M of this was sent to Coinbase Prime) so let’s call it $2B.
Binance saw about $400M and has seen fairly big outflows for the past few days. Coinbase saw the rest.
Binance outflows are the interesting ones because they have nothing to do with the ETF.
Talking about Coinbase...
➡️Coinbase crashed again during the Bitcoin rally that hit $67,000, showing zero for customer balances.
Coinbase also crashed last week in the middle of a rally.
➡️Bitcoin Inflows to accumulation addresses (never spend) reach an all-time high.
➡️The price of a house has gone from 20 Bitcoin to under 7 Bitcoin IN LESS THAN A YEAR.
➡️This was not on my Bitcoin 24' Bingo card and I still find it hard to believe, but the WEF finally shared something positive about Bitcoin. I guess that is the power of Larry Fink (BlackRock).
"Just remember, their change in tone didn't happen by accident.
CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, is on the WEF Board of Trustees.
BlackRock is the largest spot Bitcoin ETF provider in the world and they are adding billions of dollars in Bitcoin every week to their fund.
Make no mistake: the narrative is changing." - The Bitcoin Therapist
In the video, the WEF shows how one of Africa’s largest natural parks uses hydroelectricity to mine Bitcoin generating $150,000 a month. It also uses the heat generated by Bitcoin mining ASICS to make chocolate.
https://twitter.com/gladstein/status/1763944314437009451
"I am not mentally prepared to deal with videos from the World Economic Forum that promote the positive social and sustainability benefits of Bitcoin mining. The cognitive dissonance is too much.
Is this the turn of the tide?" - Freddie New
Anyway, the truth will always prevail.
More on the mining bit...
➡️1.5 GIGAWATTS of Bitcoin mining have officially reported their grid balancing activity to the ‘Curtailment Survey’.
That is enough power to heat 1.5 million small homes or energize 300 large hospitals.
It is critical now, more than ever that we help paint a clear picture for lawmakers and regulators on the value of Bitcoin mining as a large flexible consumer of power.
➡️El Salvador’s congress passes a tax code amendment, changing the threshold for requesting buyer documents from $200 to $25,000. This helps maintain privacy for those who are using Bitcoin in the country. Great move by El Salvador. By implementing this tax code amendment BTC is treated more like a normal currency. If you exchange 25k USD worth you have to record the transaction and the bank needs to know who the customer is. Before it was a threshold of $200.
➡️Texas Blockchain Council's lawsuit successfully stops the Biden administration from government data collection on Bitcoin miners.
The Government agrees to destroy the data collected.
➡️Jack Mallers at Bitcoin Atlantis in Madeira says Strike will be available in Europe within a matter of weeks.
➡️Feb 2024 printed a $19.84k Bitcoin candle, the largest monthly USD increase in history.
This added $390B to the Bitcoin market cap...
Up a remarkable 47%.
➡️Bitcoin officially enters Bull market territory on Plan B's model with the first since 2021.
This usually marks the start of a parabolic move.
Although it is just a model, most of PlanB's forecasts were inaccurate. It tells you something... bull market is on. And it is already on for a couple of months.
➡️"Bitcoin has already reached all-time-high prices in 11 of the top 20 global currencies.
The rest will follow as governments continue to print money to cover for their deficit spending.
People are opting out of this madness around the world, and we get called crazy for it." fellow Dutchie...Sam Wouters (picture 1)
When we talk about Bitcoin ATH, we usually mean in USD or if you are living in Europe in EURO. But in 11 of the top 20 fiat currencies, they have already hit a new ATH. Crazy don't you think? Bitcoin is the apex predator and you can't stop it. It is coming...it's coming to a currency near you!
➡️Great tweet by Dennis Porter:
"Today, over $5.5 trillion in assets sits in state pension funds.
If even 3% of AUM in state pensions leaks into the Bitcoin ETF that would equal $165 billion of new inflows.
Since launching, the Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $8 billion of inflows.
I’ll let you do the math."
Dennis is spot on!
➡️On the 26th of February GBTC sent only 776 Bitcoin to Coinbase premium ($39m).
Since the ETFs launch, the 11th of January is the lowest amount of Bitcoin so far that GBTC sent to Coinbase before the opening of the trading day.
The two trading days before GBTC sent more than $150m of BTC to Coinbase premium and the total outflow at the end of the day was $55m and $44m.
On the 2nd of March: "Today was another huge liquidation by Genesis out of GBTC: $492MM in outflows. But after this and yesterday's $600MM, there is almost nothing left of the $1.3BN Genesis was cleared to liquidate."
You might be saying, now that we witnessed a positive inflow last week, and the price of Bitcoin reacted accordingly last week.
More ETF news...
➡️ BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF "broke its personal record again" trading over $1.3 billion on the 27th of February. Before the market opening on the 27th...
"Another thing about IBIT volume that's notable is the amount of pre-market activity.. check this out, it's already seen $80m traded.. only 5 ETFs have seen more activity ahead of mkt open. Unprecedented for 2-month-old ETF."
Just to put it in perspective how fucking insane the IBIT ETF is:
"IBIT is the newest member of the $10 Billion Club, the fastest ever to get there. Only 152 ETFs in this club (out of 3,400) including $GBTC. First $10b so touch bc so much has to come from flows (in $IBITs case 78% of aum is flows). Second $10b is easier because market appreciation bigger variable." Eric Balchunas
"Let's not forget that in August 2022, 1.5 years ago, Black Rock and its wealthiest clients front-ran their own spot Bitcoin ETF announcement and ultimate approval. The price at this time was just over $20,000.
They also gobbled up the FTX dip down to $15,500. Like him or not, Larry Fink is playing chess while most others are still playing checkers"- Oliver L. Velez
More BlackRock Bitcoin ETF news:
➡️Blackrock debuts the iSHARES Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT39) on B3, Brazil’s major stock exchange.
The initial management fee is set at 0.25% but will drop to 0.12% after the fund reaches $5 billion in assets under management (AUM).
➡️Bitcoin is demonetising Gold ETFs as the 'Store of Value' narrative takes hold.
Bitcoin ETFs are taking in billions, while Gold ETFs are bleeding assets. picture 2+3
ETFs are catching up to Gold ETFs for assets.
$40.7 for BTC
$92b for Gold
After just 31 trading days! Mindblowing!
➡️Coinbase reports that Texas voters are interested in presidential candidates' positions on Bitcoin.
4.7M Texas adults (21%) own 'crypto', and 74% of them are likely to support candidates who stand alongside the national cryptocurrency industry.
➡️According to Bitinfocharts, Google Trends for Bitcoin is now back to 2015 levels (when Bitcoin was $200). It’s over $50,000 now and the general public couldn’t care less.
➡️Mr. 100 bought 5x 100 Bitcoin on the 25th of February (USD 26m), after buying 4x 100 BTC the day before. Mr. 100 has purchased an average of 100 Bitcoin per day since November 2022. It now holds 51,164 BTC worth $3.1 billion. Mental!
➡️Tim Buckley is stepping down as CEO of Vanguard at the end of the year. Kind of a shocker tbh although he has been there 33 years. Greg Davis was appointed President. The board is on search now for a new CEO.
Now some people may say this all has to do with the decision not to start a Bitcoin ETF, others will say this has nothing to do with Bitcoin. In the end, I don’t see why it wouldn’t have to do with the Bitcoin decision. Being that it’s the hottest ETF product of our lifetime. And Vanguard would likely have been #1. Plus how many customers did they anger/lose by banning the other ETFs? It doesn’t help that Bitcoin mooned too. "Higher Bitcoin prices aren't the problem. Exposing yourself as knowing nothing about economics, finance, or technology.
That's the problem.
Vanguard had 3 options:
a) be right and make money
b) be wrong and make money
c) be wrong and lose money
They went with C."
➡️Someone who just started DCA'ing $1,000 per week into Bitcoin will probably never reach a whole coin.
➡️Some clown news from the crazy world called Ethereum. You know, the mother shitcoin from which all shitcoin sprung. Ethereum Foundation's Michael Neuder wants to change the issuance curve of Ethereum; takes inspiration from the Central Bank of Japan.
I am not surprised...if you are still investing in ETH... HFSP! I am not going to sugarcoat it anymore.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In North America, we have ISM and Payrolls, testimony from Fed Chair Powell and a Bank of Canada policy meeting. In Europe, the focus will be on the European Central Bank meeting and post-meeting press conference with ECB president Lagarde. In Asia, with inflation and earnings data in Japan, China aggregate financing and RBM loan growth, Korea industrial production and CPI, Australia GDP and the Bank Negara policy meeting.
👉🏽Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Russia, South Korea, Australia, Spain, Indonesia, Turkey,
Although Nvidia again skyrocketed last week we see that institutional money is rotating out of tech.
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1762118405266563108
👉🏽Over the last 16 years, US stocks have gained 427% vs. 85% for International stocks and 36% for Emerging Markets. This is the longest cycle of US outperformance that we’ve ever seen.
This sounds great, but it is the biggest Ponzi scheme on earth. Currently DEBT/Ratio is at an unsustainable 137%. Now ask yourself? Did the market grow that much because of sheer productivity and technology or is it more based on liquidity (hence: DEBT)? More on this topic below, segment Macro/Geopolitics.
Oh regarding the unsustainable 137 % debt/GDP. In terms of debt-to-GDP, the last time the U.S. saw this level was during World War II.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"New York Community Bank stock crashes 20%+ after reporting "material weakness in internal controls."
The weakness is reportedly related to loan review resulting from ineffective oversight and risk assessment.
NYCB is the same bank that acquired the collapse of Signature Bank during the regional bank crisis.
This comes just weeks after the bank posted an unexpected $260 million loss in Q4 2023.
The stock is now at its lowest level since 1997."
In general, the delinquency rate among large banks hits 3%, the highest in 11 years.
The delinquency rate among small banks hits 7.80%, the highest on record.
👉🏽On the first of March: THE WHITE HOUSE: THE BANKING SYSTEM REMAINS SOUND, AND IS RESILIENT.
Buckle up people, buckle up! haha
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
In last week's Weekly Recap I already mentioned that the US borrowed a shit lot of money. This week... oh well they did the same:
"While everyone was busy talking about AI stocks this week, the US borrowed another $100 BILLION in 4 days. Currently, total US debt stands at a record $34.5 trillion, up $11.2 TRILLION since 2020.
At the current pace, the US deficit for this fiscal year will cross $3 trillion, nearly double the $1.6 trillion deficit that Congress estimated. Over the last 100 days, total US debt is up a whopping $1 trillion, an average of $10 billion per day.
We should see $35 trillion+ in US debt within a couple of months."-TKL
Now if you don't believe you need Bitcoin, here is a statement by the Bank of America:
"The US national debt is rising $1 trillion every 100 days, according to Bank of America. They estimate it will take just 95 days for the debt to climb to $35 trillion from $34 trillion, compared to the 92 days it took to grow to $33 trillion from $32 trillion.
This is making “debt debasement” trades attractive like bitcoin and gold says BoA."
Okay one more statement: The U.S. national debt is rising by the entire market cap of Bitcoin every ~100 days.
Opt-out: Bitcoin
👉🏽Another HUGE call from Apollo on the first of March:
"The Fed will not cut rates this year, and rates are going to stay higher for longer."
Apollo says the US economy is not slowing down, and the Fed pivot has provided a strong tailwind to growth since December. They also note that many measures of inflation are pointing higher again including Supercore Inflation at 4.5%.
Meanwhile, asking rents are rising, more cities are seeing rising rents and home prices are rising.
Just 2 months ago, markets were pricing in 6 rate cuts in 2024.
The Fed's job is far from done." - TKL
Ergo: the struggle for everyday people will remain. Inflation will remain, and the difference/gap between the financial economy and the real economy will remain. Higher for longer just like what happened in the 1970's. If breaking inflation was as easy as raining rates for a few quarters, everyone would do it. I have said it multiple times don't get surprised if inflation will re-accelerate in the upcoming year(s).
👉🏽"Good Morning from Germany, which is obviously in a recession. At least that is what many indicators suggest: economic slack – demand falling increasingly short of potential output – is reappearing, acc to HFE. Widening slack stabilizes or depresses prices because in such an environment pricing power of comps is weakened." Holger Zschaepitz
👉🏽"Eurozone CPI slowed less than anticipated in Feb, highlighting stickiness in inflation. Headline inflation eased to 2.6% YoY in Feb, above the 2.5% consensus estimate in the BBG survey. Core inflation came down by 0.2%-pt to 3.1%, also an upward surprise compared to a 2.9% consensus estimate.
👉🏽A strong visual representation of the actual cost of corruption: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1763982945897906403
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Very inspiring keynote by Daniel Batten at Bitcoin Atlantis in Madeira on the mitigation of methane emissions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bikLdxCKQjc
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/JcxQNBsa97kg24JAfJvZVk.webp
https://void.cat/d/PAnttTW6bhC2r39wU7rYV1.webp
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"People work 100,000 hours throughout their lifetime to earn money and then get robbed by inflation without knowing. If they’d spend 100 hours (0.1%) of that time to learn about money their lives would change drastically." - Bitcoin for Freedom
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Satoshi Nakamoto's earliest collaborator Martii 'Sirius' Malmi just released their entire email history.
At 120 pages, it's the most significant addition to the archives of Bitcoin's unknown inventor.
Here are the most important new findings:
https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1761040092087337196
I urge you to read that thread by Pete Rizzo. What you will learn, giving some insights into the mind of Satoshi, revealing early Bitcoin insights, including the origin of "cryptocurrency" terms and views on anonymity.
Caitlin Long is pointing this out oh so eloquently: https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1761072087064629507
➡️The Texas Blockchain Council and Riot Platforms are fighting back against the Biden Administration’s emergency request to collect sensitive data regarding Bitcoin miners' energy consumption by filing a lawsuit to halt the measure.
"The Bitcoin network is receiving an average of $607m per day of new investor demand while this is being met by $46m per day of new supply in the form of new coins being mined. New demand is calculated by a change in the realized cap, the accumulated price investors paid for their BTC. This method underestimates the true demand due to off-chain buy/sells not being accounted for." Willy Woo
Repeat after me, hello supply shock! We are now 60 days away from seeing the new supply being halved.
➡️MicroStrategy acquires 3,000 Bitcoin for $155 million. This brings their total stack to 193,000 BTC, acquired at an average price of $31,544 per bitcoin.
➡️"Today, over $5.5 trillion in assets sits in state pension funds.
If even 3% of AUM in state pensions leaks into the Bitcoin ETF that would equal $165 billion of new inflows.
Since launching, the Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $8 billion of inflows.
I’ll let you do the math." - Dennis Porter
➡️"Fidelity and Accenture hosted 100 bank executives and asset managers in Paris last week to learn more about Bitcoin and how to prepare as an institution." -Bitcoin Archive
➡️Bitcoin price surged 23% this month, driven by US ETF approvals and strong buying during US trading hours (12%), according to Matrixport. European (7%) and Asian (4%) markets also contributed to the gains.
➡️Bitcoin has passed all-time highs in at least fourteen countries. In fourteen countries representing 1B+ people and $7T+ in GDP, Bitcoin is becoming lifeboat. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1760638270462104048
This is the power of a decentralized, global store of value. Remember, Bitcoin has no top because fiat printing has no end.
➡️"For those considering Bitcoin. Remember to hold for 4 years. It's never returned below 30% annualized for a 4-year investment, no matter how badly timed...
BTC: 30-60%, 75% drawdowns
SP500: 10%, 35% drawdowns
Real Estate: 10%, 30%+ drawdowns
VC Funds: 15%-27%, 10-year lock up" - Willy Woo
➡️Last week we received the news that Reddit bought Bitcoin with its excess cash and may continue to do so with future cash flows.
➡️The European Central Bank's Bitcoin bashing article gets Community Noted into oblivion. Gotta love it!
The bank claims Bitcoin has "failed on its promise" and that the ETF is proof. https://twitter.com/ecb/status/1760580254920212640
Meanwhile, the Euro has lost 99.5% of its value vs. Bitcoin in less than 10 years. (picture 1)
97% of all trading days are in profit for Bitcoin.
While the ECB's skepticism on Bitcoin is noted, it's essential to remember that value is often subjective and ever-evolving. The Euro vs Bitcoin chart can offer insights, but the true worth of Bitcoin goes beyond mere numbers.
"In politics, a common tactic of deflecting attention from your own non-performance is to spread misinformation about a competitor. With a renewed attack on Bitcoin on the same day as its worst performance in 2 decades, it seems the ECB is recycling the same strategy."
➡️On the 23rd of February, someone sent 1.3 billion dollars of Bitcoin for a $2 fee, and no one could stop it. But he, the ECB said it's slow and expensive, right?! Now try that with fiat.
➡️Non-ETF entity makes $1.3B Bitcoin purchase (26.2K BTC at $51K).
➡️"Bitcoin as exponential gold: In the past I’ve explored Bitcoin mostly from a demand perspective, studying S-curves to generate a demand-driven valuation framework. Today I’m presenting my supply-driven approach, which is a variation on the stock-to-flow (S2F) concept."
Nice conceptualization of Bitcoin as digital gold on steroids from Jurrien Timmer. Read the full thread here: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1760677789865512980
➡️Bitcoin whales move 18K Bitcoin ($1B) off Coinbase, splitting it into cold wallets ranging from $45M to $171M
➡️Genesis is selling 1B dollars worth of Bitcoin this month and nobody seems to notice or care. Why not? $1B GBTC outflow = 2 days of ETF inflows.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings reach $6.5 billion. They now match 2/3 of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stack.
- "The Bitcoin ETFs bought $1,020,100,000 of Bitcoin this week.
That is $255,025,000 of bought Bitcoin per trading day.
That is $64,521,325,000 of demand per year.
There will be approximately 191,250 Bitcoin issued in the next 365 days.
That is $337,366 of ETF money coming in per Bitcoin issued.
What happens if there is a market multiple of 10:1, 100:1, or 500:1?...
What happens when demand for Bitcoin ETFs increases at all?...
What happens at the next halving?
Wake up. Get off zero."- Luke Broyles
➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF just broke $1 Billion in trading volume for the day.
➡️BitWise Bitcoin ETF is now available for recommendation by Registered Investment Advisors of $30B in assets, one of the largest advisor networks in the USA- BitWise CEO
More ETF news...
➡️Four spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved on the $30 BILLION advisor network platform by the Carson Group.
➡️Another week of Bitcoin ETF inflows ($777mm) vs Gold ETF outflows (-$608mm).
Bitcoin ETFs saw an additional inflow of $265mm, while Gold ETFs saw an outflow of -$124mm on Friday. Every passing day brings the flippening closer.
➡️"Bitcoin as Legal Tender: El Salvador's Groundbreaking Decision and the Salvadorian Mainstream Media's Reaction"
Free report on El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption media coverage post-2021 law.
Insights from:
→ 1,440 articles
→ 5 major outlets
→ 152 reporters
Link below:
➡️JP Morgan announced plans to offer an actively managed Bitcoin fund to its private wealth clients. Wait what? The man, CEO Jamie Dimon, who lied to your face about Bitcoin being a Ponzi and wanting the government to ban it just 3months ago is now offering Bitcoin services to his rich clients.
Shocking!
➡️We've officially mined 93.5% of all the Bitcoin.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have core PCE inflation, house prices, and consumer confidence. In Europe, it’s the euro area consumer confidence, French, German, and Spanish flash inflation, and UK lending data. In Asia, with the China PMIs, Indonesia, Japan CPI and the RBNZ meeting
👉🏽Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Russia, South Korea, Australia, Spain, Indonesia, Turkey, Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia.
👉🏽The top 10% of stocks in the US now reflect ~75% of the entire market.
This is, by far, the most concentrated stock market since the Great Depression in 1931. (picture 2)
In the Dot-com bubble of 2001, the concentration of the top 10% of stocks peaked at ~72%.
Even before the 2008 Financial Crisis, the concentration of the top 10% of stocks peaked at ~66%.
On average, the top 10% of stocks reflect 64% of the entire stock market. -TKL
"- Jeff Bezos sold $8.5B of Amazon stock
bbc.com/news/business-…
- Walton family members sold $4.5B of Walmart stock
x.com/TrackInsiders_…
- Meta insiders sold $232M of stock in 2024
marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/…
- Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO since 2006, first-time ever sold $150M of company stock. He announced in Oct he would sell 1 million of his 8.6 million shares for “financial diversification and tax-planning purposes”.
reuters.com/markets/us/jpm…
- Total household debt rose by $212B to $17.5T in Q4 2023 including $1.13T in credit card debt
newyorkfed.org/microeconomics…
- The US Government borrowed $260B last month equating to $3.1T annually with an overall debt of $34.3T
x.com/KobeissiLetter…
- The last time the market cap of the top 10% of stocks was this high was in early in the Great Depression
x.com/zerohedge/stat…
- The "Magnificent 7" have a market cap of $11.7T accounting for over 25% of the S&P 500 & more than that of Japan and Germany's exchanges combined
And, someone just bought 26,139 Bitcoin catapulting themselves to #29 on the rich list with $1.33B
bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/addres…
What do the big boys know that we don't?"
🏦Banks:
On the 22nd of February: "It was a great day for the Swiss National Bank which first printed money out of thin air, then bought 148,900 shares of SMCI and today made a cool $36 million profit"- Zerohedge
This is the absurdity of fiat money just print some worthless money and buy real assets with them. (please read my weekly recap from the 19th of February, segment Bitcoin, the statement made by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. You will understand the above absurdity.) https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvzqrfawsca7eydfdgmsupyhxqfxrura28fdude4pvpmdwcm3mq0qzyq78msk9slhvupg0h3jcpxckp8geyplcyhwhva2tnyz7nj5q2ep2sqmlzax
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"While everyone was busy watching Nvidia, the US borrowed another $260 BILLION last month.
On an annualized basis, this puts the US on track to borrow ~$3.1 trillion in 2024.
Total US debt now stands at a record $34.33 trillion, or 2.8 TIMES the market cap of the Magnificent 7. (picture 3)
Over the last 4 years alone, total US debt is officially up $11 trillion and counting.
At the current rate, we will see $40 trillion in US debt by 2026 and that assumes a "soft landing."
Just imagine what would happen if we entered a recession." - TKL
I don't think we will see a recession no sooner than Q4 24'. The market needs to be at its best during the US election.
Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet is now at its lowest level since March 2021, down $1.4 trillion from its peak in April 2022.
How much more QT is needed to unwind the massive QE from March 2020- April 2022?
$3.4 trillion.
Never gonna happen!
I don't put a date on it, but we will see a FED balance sheet hit $15 trillion in the 'nearby' future.
👉🏽Germany's manufacturing downturn unexpectedly deepens amid falling demand at home and abroad. S&P Global’s PMI for the country’s industrial sector dropped to 42.3 from 45.5 the previous month – well below any economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The picture was brighter in France, where the contraction eased much more than analysts had predicted. Companies reported improving demand while expanding their workforce.
Read the full article here: https://archive.ph/2tQRL
The funniest part of the above statement..." unexpectedly".
"As if Germany wouldn’t have enough problems, in just a few years it will be hit by a massive pensions and healthcare entitlement crisis" (picture 4)
Now I might go a step too far but the picture below is (maybe) the reason why 'refugees are welcomed' in (West) Europe. Just a thought...
A dangerous cocktail, an energy cliff, a demographic cliff, and a cultural cliff hitting at the same time.
Europe right now: Either entitlements gonna be cut or taxes and/or immigration will be increased.
Oh by the way... one more fun fact about Europe...
"A reminder that as a European you aren't allowed to buy
SPY ETF
GLD ETF
SLV ETF
Any American Bitcoin ETF
What a world we are living in... Europe is becoming more and more totalitarian, opt out while you can.."
👉🏽https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1760015120829165877
In other words, the government is going to continue f***ing up the economy until society reaches its breaking point. Noted!
👉🏽"In case you missed it: Global debt surged by >$15tn in 2023 reaching a new record high of $313tn. 55% of this rise originated from mature markets, mainly driven by the US, France, & Germany. BUT the global debt-to-GDP ratio saw a decline of ~2ppts to 330% in 2023, according to IIF. This marked the third consecutive annual drop." - Holger Zschaepitz.
(picture 5)
Now let's do the increase in asset values....sure that is driven by technology and productivity right? Yes! but don't count out the fact that the global debt is up almost $250 trillion over the last 20 years. I firmly believe that the developed world (debt) is going to sink into the developing world...eventually.
I am just going to leave this here.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1761492225542717526
Nothing stops the train!
What the world needs:
👉🏽"President of Argentina Javier Milei will be introducing a bill to Congress to jail any Central Bank official who orders the Central Bank to print money to cover Argentina's deficits.
Milei will be defining seigniorage as a criminal offense with the objective of not being "able to issue money to finance the Treasury."
"The bill will define seigniorage as a criminal offense and in case the Central Bank finances the treasury, either directly or indirectly, the president of the Central Bank, the board of directors, the president of the Nation, and the officials who vote for it would end up in jail," Milei said during an interview.
"We have a strong commitment in the fiscal area, zero deficit is not negotiable."
"If you have zero deficit, you do not take on more debt. By not taking on more debt, the debt–product ratio becomes constant or decreasing and the counterpart of that is that you become more solvent." - Collin Rugg
Ergo: No more printing. No more spending. Learn to manage money better.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Another great newsletter by Lyn Alden
https://www.lynalden.com/february-2024-newsletter/
"The tighter the Fed gets in terms of monetary policy, the more it increases the government's interest expense, which leads to larger overall deficits, which is generally stimulatory and inflationary for the economy!"
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/3gwCFaiB5Czex9SQByvy6u.webp
https://void.cat/d/2QWH8DAyrkdHrhU1QBqEu8.webp
https://void.cat/d/VE38pAZfqwaMx4uQr2NDeQ.webp
https://void.cat/d/CYDyt7swbkK9PfuZ1VExPV.webp
Weekly Recap: 20.02.2024
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"The scarcity of money controlled by no human being vs. the infinity of money manipulated and controlled by a small group of privileged men we don't even vote for.
I know which one I choose.
Bitcoin only." -Oliver L. Veleze
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/chart/housing/MSPNHSUS
The prices of homes just keep getting more and more affordable...
Affordable in Bitcoin terms.
This is exactly what Jeff Booth is talking about when he says Bitcoin is repricing everything…This is what happens when technology drives prices down and you have a currency that doesn’t steal from you. I urge you to read his book 'The Price of Tomorrow': https://cryptofriday.eu/index.php/books-articles/
➡️Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, made headlines on Wall Street in 2020 by converting his company's cash reserves to Bitcoin.
Financial experts laughed at the idea.
Today, his Bitcoin is worth $10,000,000,000.
➡️"Last week's (tweet by therationalroot) Bitcoin ETF data is in:
- ETF Net In-Flows consistently over +6K BTC this week
- Cumulative holdings at All-Time-High of 726K BTC
- Cumulative holdings up 100k BTC since launch
- BlackRock alone added over 30k BTC this week
- Grayscale down 166k since launch"
Bitcoin ETFs have taken in over $3 BILLION of new funds in just the last 7 days. On the 14th of February, it was the biggest day of inflows since launch day, with $631m!
Bitcoin ETFs are catching up to Gold ETFs for assets.
$37b for BTC $93b for Gold; After just 25 trading days!
"Blackrock doesn't care about sound money or ending the Fed.
But when Blackrock ETF buys up 500K Bitcoin, the price goes to 1M.
Blackrock makes $1.25B in annual fees - forever.
Follow the money." - Thomas Fahrer
More on Blackrock...
➡️Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas reports that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF has taken in $5.2 billion YTD, representing 50% of BlackRock's total net flows for their 417 ETFs.
More ETF news...
➡️A little perspective...
Bitwise the fourth largest of the new Bitcoin ETFs is buying up 880 BTC Per Day on Average.
Soon to be double the rate of Bitcoin mining supply.
➡️https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1759027406956900716
Supply & demand. Please watch that clip. After watching that clip please have a look at the following tweet:
https://twitter.com/BLACK1W1/status/1758793481756307814
It boggles the mind. Really, please read the tweet.
➡️Bitcoin has officially crossed above $1 trillion in market cap for the first time since December 2021.
Since December 2022, Bitcoin has added ~$700 billion in market cap. Bitcoin is back.
➡️94.5% of the Bitcoin supply is now in profit. Despite Bitcoin moving from $16.5k to $52k in 13 and half months, the amount of coins that didn’t move in the last 12 months remains close to the ATH at 70%.
➡️Coinbase's Bitcoin supply plunges to the lowest since 2015 after 18K BTC (~$1B) withdrawal.
In general, Bitcoin on exchanges falls significantly over the weekend. Bitcoin on all exchanges even hit the lowest level since 2017. In connection with the increased demand by ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, there will be even fewer coins in circulation. Hello, supply SHOCK!
➡️Bitcoin is at all-time highs in the following countries:
Laos
Burundi
Malawi
Nigeria
Myanmar
Ethiopia
Pakistan
Cuba
Ghana
Egypt
Congo
Iran
Suriname
Sierra Leone
Turkey
Sudan
Syria
Argentina
Lebanon
Venezuela
➡️"It's a great business to be in, Central Banking, where you print money and people believe it"
"We are 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱 on being the most cost-effective, fit-for-purpose Central Bank we can be. We are a full-service bank."- Adrian Orr
https://twitter.com/MikeStillBTC/status/1757329415489401152
The person in the video is the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The same guy claimed that ‘bitcoin is neither a medium of exchange, a store of value or a unit of account’.
Anyway, once you learn how the system works...
Bitcoin.
"Central Bankers think YOU are so dumb that they can just say this kind of stuff out loud.
Bitcoin is YOUR proof that they can't keep getting away with this theft." - Preston Pysh
➡️Elizabeth Warren's inflated claims of crypto's use to fund terrorism were debunked at a Congressional hearing "Committee members put the final nail in the coffin of the hyperinflated fears surrounding crypto and illicit finance" said Taylor Barr.
Meanwhile...
➡️Three more US states (Ohio, South Carolina, Mississippi) introduced the Blockchain Basics Act, aiming to protect citizens' Bitcoin rights at the state level.
➡️All-time high: Bitcoin Mining now offsets 7.5% of its emissions through methane mitigation.
Why it matters: COP28 was all about methane mitigation. Bitcoin Mining is uniquely poised to mitigate methane profitably
Full story & source: by Daniel Batten:
https://www.batcoinz.com/p/issue-002-all-time-highs
Bitcoin mining according to former CEO ERCOT (the guy who ran de grid of Texas. The reason why I am reposting so much stuff from Daniel Batten is that Bitcoin mining is so complex but also so important for Bitcoin but also our world.
https://twitter.com/DSBatten/status/1759107766189461916\
Please read his tweet and the provided sources. Literally every day there's new data, and new analysis showing how Bitcoin mining is a net positive green tech/user of energy.
➡️"The FTX bankruptcy estate sold more than $1 billion worth of GBTC.
Many have celebrated as GBTC Outflows have recently slowed, but unfortunately, there's more selling on the horizon.
Another bankruptcy estate plans to sell billions worth of GBTC soon- Genesis."
For more info, I urge you to read the following thread:
https://twitter.com/samcallah/status/1757445720880140555
➡️Bitcoin hit $50k.
Meanwhile, Google search volumes relative to price are at all-time lows. In other words, there is no retail FOMO buying.
➡️A coalition of leading banking and financial institutions has petitioned the SEC for an amendment to “SAB 121,” a regulation that has restricted banks from participating in the digital currency space.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have the latest Fed meeting minutes and jobless claims, Fed-speak, and PMI data. In Europe, the focus will be on inflation expectations, PMI data, and communication from ECB officials. In Asia, with central bank meetings in Indonesia and Korea, and Australian wages data and RBA meeting minutes.
👉🏽"The combined revenue of the 4 largest US companies hit a record $1.5 trillion over last 12 months...
Amazon: $575 billion
Apple: $386 billion
Google: $307 billion
Microsoft: $228 billion
That's larger than the GDP of all but 14 countries." - TKL
👉🏽"Since February 2023:
1. Magnificent 7: +77%
2. S&P 500: +20%
3. Russel 2000: +5%
4. S&P 500 Equal Weight: +4%
If you remove the Magnificent 7 from the S&P 500, the index is barely up 5% over the last year.
n other words, if you bought all S&P 500 stocks other than tech last year at this time, you're almost breaking even.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for a record 35% of the ENTIRE index." - TKL
🏦Banks:
no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽US inflation: Both headline and core CPI came in above consensus expectations.
Core CPI growth is proving particularly sticky. The money supply is soon expected to return to growth again. The potential risk of inflationary impulse remains.
This is super core inflation - a measure of sticky inflationary pressures Powell & Co. often refer to:
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1757414499684905372
Ergo: we are not out of the (inflation) woods!
👉🏽"Prediction markets are now pricing in just 4 rate cuts in 2024 after January CPI inflation hits 3.1%.
This is a huge slide in expectations as markets were pricing in 6 rate cuts just over a month ago, according to Kalshi. The most recent Fed guidance was for 3 interest rate cuts in 2024.
Odds of a March interest rate cut are below 10% and odds of a May rate cut are plummeting." - TKL
Personally, I think with the upcoming US election I don't expect any rate cuts till Q4 24.
👉🏽German banks prepare for huge loan defaults in ‘greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis’ - CNN
Now you might think this is a German bank's problem. Well, that's true. But it is the US Commercial Real Estate defaults that are putting pressure on German banks if anyone is wondering:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/07/business/pbb-bad-loans-real-estate-crisis/index.html
Something (CRE) I discussed in my recent Weekly Recaps. The main question is, how many other countries will experience this?
👉🏽https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1757535468449865801
(picture1)
Total debt +$31BN today to a record high of $34.229 Trillion.
BTC is worth less than 3% of the US national debt. Humanity holds ~37x more wealth in debt from a bankrupt government than in the world’s best money. we are so early!
👉🏽Current economies in recession:
Peru
Japan
Ireland
Estonia
Finland
Moldova
Denmark
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
China and Germany are in trouble.
👉🏽After 2 months of the Milei presidency:
- Financial surplus: “Argentina Sees First Monthly Budget Surplus In 12 Years”.
- 7 billion USD in reserves
- BCRA's liabilities are being liquidated
- Monetary base almost stalled in nominal terms
- Lower exchange rate gap
- National public spending is down
- Provinces are also beginning to spend less
- Inflation is slowing
- Country risk index lower
- S&P Merval strong pump in USD
👉🏽Direct foreign investment into China slumps to 30y low. Foreign firms only added $33bn to their FDI liabilities, the lowest since 1993, indicating a lack of confidence. China’s direct investment liabilities in its balance of payments stood at $33 billion last year, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released Sunday. That measure of new foreign investment into the country — which records monetary flows connected to foreign-owned entities in China — was 82% lower than the 2022 level and the lowest since 1993.
source: https://archive.ph/R7dOj#selection-4869.0-4879.263
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
The Bitcoin Scaling Dilemma with Shinobi.
- Scaling Bitcoin with covenants
- A path to Bitcoin upgrades
- Ossification vs scaling sovereignty
- Risks for Bitcoin developers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOK8CujQQI
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption