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Saifedean Ammous
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Author of The Bitcoin Standard, The Fiat Standard, and Principles of Economics. Teaching economics on saifedean.com.

Long cables are much much cheaper than satellites. Maybe if people weren't wasting their money on another retarded idea from the grifter who brought us dogecoin, ruined Twitter and is hell-bent on uninventing the automobile, you'd have more broadband internet and less living vicariously as the teenager that got away with not growing up.

Basically 95%+ of people who can afford starlink live in places with infinitely better and cheaper internet. Thinking you can finance thousands of satellites to orbit earth from revenue from people who are too poor to have broadband or proper infrastructure is the equivalent of thinking electric cars or dogecoin are not a retarded idea.

It works in an easy money environment with plenty of investors chasing buzzwords being sold hopium about scaling and unrealistic expectations about price declines and revenue increase. But the economic sustainability of launching a very large number of satellites to satisfy the very small number of people who live in isolated areas is extremely suspect, just like every single other thing Elon has ever 'built'.

The cost/benefit analysis of launching expensive satellites to deliver internet to the very tiny number of people who live in isolated areas away from cheap great internet seems extremely unworkable, no matter how much you would like it to work. Nobody has created a tropical paradise full of supermodel servants just for you, either, but that doesn't mean that anyone trying it must succeed.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Too many people have given Elon a pass. Don't give him a pass.

He's a marketer, not a founder or an engineer. He didn't found PayPal or Tesla; he bought into them early. He's good at selling narratives and equity valuation for perpetually unprofitable companies.

Everything for him is a narrative. His green revolution was a narrative to sell more cars and get more subsidies. His bitcoin purchase was to gain appeal among bitcoin/crypto people in a bull market. And he shilled doge like a dumbass. His SpaceX narrative is to get money from the government.

His rooftop solar thing was an outright scam; the technology isn't ready and went nowhere because of that. His full-self-driving-in-an-intermediate-term timeline was a scam, and is going nowhere because of that. He makes scams to draw people and capital in, because for him it's all about narratives and equity valuation.

And then he dug unproductive holes, suggested unproductive hyper-tubes, built meme flamethrowers, for what? It's a narrative, not a business. None of this is real productive shit to make peoples' lives better.

His latest "we need free speech" narrative was a scam too. He tapped into something real, which is what marketers do and why it kind of worked. Yes, we need free speech. Yes, Twitter had censorship issues. He saw that and jumped on it maliciously rather than productively.

But what did he replace it with? He replaced it with arbitrary journalist censorship about his private jet, arbitrary censorship of Substack, selective Twitter Files release, won't talk seriously about any of his China connections because Xi Jinping fucking owns him economically there like Jack Ma, has his balls firmly in his grasp, etc.

Elon's playing the narrative, the anti-woke meme of the day. He's a master meme-momentum-player. Don't fall for it.

His internet satellite thing is also an unworkable scam. All his genius ideas are always on the verge of changing the world, they just need more government support before they do.

Notice when actual inventions are going to change the world, their producers are too busy making them to ask anyone for money. The ICE car, airplane, or iphone did not need decades of subsidies like the electric car or his rockets to nowhere.

The only question is if Twitter will keep this streak going by remaining a money-losing operation, or by getting government subsidies. The only way to make Twitter profitable at this point would be to sell control of its algorithms to a government, likely CCP.

Elon's wish to turn Twitter into WeChat suggests a particularly good product-customer fit: the CCP onboards the world onto its fiatcoin & social credit system & censors as it likes.

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