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Norman
492400858691447b6e982df644b1931824701b023abac8b619a7991fa56cb8a2
Running Bitcoin

Merry Christmas from my family to yours! 🎄🎅

I can feel the genie chains loosening

I’ve gotten 10 of my friends into bitcoin and I made sure they all have self custody. But unfortunately they are unwilling to learn anything and I constantly have to hold their hand. At the end of the day most people love the nerfed world we live in and only care that the beer is cold. I won’t give up trying to educate people but I can’t make them take responsibility

Jack I don’t mean to alarm you but it appears you have a homeless looking gentleman in your closet

Merry Christmas you filthy animal

Replying to Avatar HODL

Thought experiment.

Option # 1

Let’s say you have 10 bitcoin and we hit 2 million in the next few years.

You’re tempted so you sell it for 20 million dollars.

After taxes you’re be left with 16MM.

Which you use to comfortably generate 1.2MM a year in the tradfi markets.

So you take the money and retire.

Bitcoin crashes 60% back to 800k.

For a few years you feel like a genius. You enjoy your new rich person lifestyle.

You even buy back a few bitcoin. 2 to be exact. 20% of what you used to have.

Then bitcoin rises over the next decade to be worth 50 million per coin.

You’re worth 120 million now. And you decide to sell a little over half a coin and upgrade your lifestyle again to be able to generate an additional 2 million a year.

You’re now on paper worth 120 million, you generate 3.2 million a year (266k a month) and you’ve been largely stress free for the last decade.

Your kids will inherit roughly 1.62 bitcoin from you upon your death.

You have some level of regret about not hodling through, but you’ve been largely stress free and the mental health benefit was worth it in your mind.

Vs.

Option # 2

You have the same 10 bitcoin but you Hodl them.

Your stress levels are persistently higher.

You also decide to retire when Bitcoin hits 2 mil, but you decide to do so in bitcoin terms.

Your plan is to sell a little bitcoin as needed in order to fund your lifestyle.

This is roughly 1-3 million sats a month. Depending on bitcoin price.

Over the course of 10 years you end up selling or spending 2.4 bitcoin and are still left worth 7.6btc when bitcoin reaches 50 million.

Your net worth is 380 million.

You’ve reduced your lifestyle in bitcoin terms down to a million sats a month. (500k) or 6 million per year. You’re 46, Assuming you live until you’re 90 you will pass down 2.32 bitcoin to your kids.

You have no regrets about the way you played it, but your stress was consistently higher and there were a few scary months along the way.

Which option do you choose?

1 or 2?

I’m currently think about option #3. Rebalancing so I’m no longer 100% bitcoin and I can finally relax. The problem is I can’t come up with a logical strategy.

Markets are so funny. Everything is so reactionary. Seems silly to me.

Most people are so short sighted. It’s painful to watch. I wish I could help them.

The album Lets Dance by David Bowie is incredible. I’ve underestimated this album for years. I was wrong.