Shifting Power in the World - Current Thoughts
1. TRADING ROUTS & RESOURCES: World is moving towards multipolar power based on resources. Russia 🇷🇺 wages war to get unhindered access to the Black Sea. United States 🇺🇸 wanting Greenland for resources and even better protection for trading routs. China 🇨🇳 has been working on trading routes with the Belt and Road Initiative.
2. FINANCIAL SYSTEM: US💰dollar reserve asset status change. Read Broken Money by Lyn Alden where she presents how Bretton Woods I (1944) died in 1971 when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard but the Petrodollar was born as all oil began to be traded in dollar, due to deal with Saudi Arabia. Then Bretton Woods 2 (Petrodollar) ended when Russia’s foreign reserves in dollars 💸 were confiscated ending the dollar reserve status. Now we are in Bretton Woods 3 probably meaning resource based trade on as many currencies as would be accepted by the seller. (Even Saudi Arabia is selling oil in other currencies, look at BRICS+)
3. When you think of it Bitcoin would fit this world perfectly as it would be the best way to prove Sovereign State Reserve Assets.
What does this mean for you and me? Complicated, let’s try and guess:
American 🇺🇸: you’ll be fine. You have resources, technology and the best financial markets to make it all move in your favor. America will control lower earth orbit, that is the ultimate geopolitical tool.
Russian 🇷🇺: difficult, recover from the war due to demographic decline, selling your resources cheaper to a shorter list of countries due to sanctions with long trade routes.
China 🇨🇳: I am not sufficiently educated to guess this one.
European 🇪🇺: If by some miracle they get their head right we should see an EU Army, resources from the Eastern States going to fuel production and technology hubs in the west. Overall production in high margin high technology products.
The amount of theft by our system is insane. Life is short and so precious and we throw most of it away.
This is so true. But today we can just stay home and live by the old saying: A few sats a day keeps the tyrant away.
I collaborated with Sam Callahan to publish a research report on fiscal dominance:
https://www.lynalden.com/full-steam-ahead-all-aboard-fiscal-dominance/
Impressive as always. Thank you. Great report, helped a lot in clarity to today’s world.
Wow this was a great read. Thanks.
What I took away. Interest rates hikes are not efficient now because inflation is not coming from the private sector but the public sector because of larger debt burdens and larger deficits. The authors are not alarmist but say that inflation will only go up for the next decade. Treasuries not a great investment. Own hard assets.
Well worth the read:
“In this environment, holding hard, scarce assets such as real estate, equities, gold, and bitcoin offers a pragmatic way to preserve purchasing power and navigate the pressures of fiscal dominance. These assets provide a hedge against the gradual yet persistent erosion of purchasing power in an era where fiscal policy rules the economic landscape.”
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1. TRADING ROUTS & RESOURCES: World is moving towards multipolar power based on resources. Russia 🇷🇺 wages war to get unhindered access to the Black Sea. United States 🇺🇸 wanting Greenland for resources and even better protection for trading routs. China 🇨🇳 has been working on trading routes with the Belt and Road Initiative.
2. FINANCIAL SYSTEM: US💰dollar reserve asset status change. Read Broken Money by Lyn Alden where she presents how Bretton Woods I (1944) died in 1971 when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard but the Petrodollar was born as all oil began to be traded in dollar, due to deal with Saudi Arabia. Then Bretton Woods 2 (Petrodollar) ended when Russia’s foreign reserves in dollars 💸 were confiscated ending the dollar reserve status. Now we are in Bretton Woods 3 probably meaning resource based trade on as many currencies as would be accepted by the seller. (Even Saudi Arabia is selling oil in other currencies, look at BRICS+)
3. When you think of it Bitcoin would fit this world perfectly as it would be the best way to prove Sovereign State Reserve Assets.
What does this mean for you and me? Complicated, let’s try and guess:
American 🇺🇸: you’ll be fine. You have resources, technology and the best financial markets to make it all move in your favor. America will control lower earth orbit, that is the ultimate geopolitical tool.
Russian 🇷🇺: difficult, recover from the war due to demographic decline, selling your resources cheaper to a shorter list of countries due to sanctions with long trade routes.
China 🇨🇳: I am not sufficiently educated to guess this one.
European 🇪🇺: If by some miracle they get their head right we should see an EU Army, resources from the Eastern States going to fuel production and technology hubs in the west. Overall production in high margin high technology products.
Eat out for £5, Israel prepares to enter Gaza, banks on the brink. That was January 3rd 2009, when also through a sly roundabout way we got our money back.
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If you don’t understand #Bitcoin, then watch this.
https://video.nostr.build/584da25c04ca214367ca9b9fcdadc70e1c7edaec13b0ac3d91d7ad7674e4022c.mp4
That sentence: by some sly roundabout way. Best description ever.
We are aiming for self sovereign networks (social medial, capital in form of Bitcoin), cutting edge modern stuff. Countries seem to aim to be self sovereign as well but in a 1930s style, populism, strongmen leaders with imperial views.
Good comment on the Treasury holding the #BTC Reserve. Again I do not see how this is bearish. You have the Federal Reserve Chair knowing and discussing about #Bitcoin in a press conference regarding macroeconomics. Western Nation State Reserves will happen.
And their MP discussing in Parliament now: Nein, nein, nein. Wi will make new reserven, ja.
The only economist that can win you over is Hayek by saying: a sly roundabout way.
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Reading Broken Money. Just wanted to congratulate and thank you for the amazing work. Such a great read. 👏