I agree, the reason no one prices in Bitcoin yet is because no one -owes- Bitcoin denominated debts yet. Once you see debts denominated in BTC you'll see BTC much more widely used as UoA
Just tagging some folks in the hope someone reads the above. It's tough to get your ideas out there these days. nostr:nprofile1qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncpz4mhxue69uhkummnw3ezumtpd35kutn0dekqz9rhwden5te0dehhxarjwdshganp9ehx2aqkrad8w nostr:nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzyrhwden5te0dehhxarj9emkjmn9ttrzhr nostr:nprofile1qqsgym5l39dcr26p53fzy69jf8ng6qk2s9sgmm6k9fynem34llzuwkgpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqpzdmhxue69uhkummnw3ezud3sxqh8warxsa8fge nostr:nprofile1qqsglmzzvfrcgk7aymek4e8hxaggc9wmasrag08p37xpx64euddvyyspz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqz9nhwden5te0v4jx2m3wdehhxarj9ekxzmny9uv9a63v nostr:nprofile1qqs9336p4f3sctdrtft2wlqaq5upjz9azpgylhfd3dplwf005mfrr9spzamhxue69uhkummnw3ezuendwsh8w6t69e3xj7spz3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wct4lwjj
What if the "official" exchange price of Bitcoin isn't connected to reality.
(I'm thinking through stuff for my next article, a follow up to my 2020 IR Theory piece)
Think about it, if nation states want to actually acquire bitcoins, why would they do it via participating in the, let's face it, amateur spot market? The United States is signaling possible future acquisition activity, but that doesn't mean others have to do so as well.
The spot exchange rates are dominated by liquidity from the United States, and much of the activity today is derivatives based.
Game theory suggests players (G20 as a standing) would do their acquiring in secret (think Manhattan project) and would not be revealed until ready). The spot market, and the derivatives markets, are fairly transparent and don't lend themselves to secretly building a large position.
What I'm saying is, the US dominated spot market, especially if major players are fractionally reserving, may not give the full picture. Basically, a lot of people -think- they're buying or owning Bitcoin, but they aren't really. The spot price is driven by exchange activity, nation state adoption would likely not be. Off exchange activity likely. Therefore, I don't think it's likely -at this stage- we would see spot price movements that would show potential secret nation state acquisition activities.
What we DO SEE is a massively high hash rate that keeps expanding. I think nations are mining and beginning to do so at much greater scale. No data to back this though.
I think everyone who is an individual holder needs to be EXTREMELY cautious going forward and always withdraw to a real Bitcoin wallet you control. And keep your opsec tight, the US could use critical asset forfeiture as a key acquisition strategy.
This is just a thought dump, not a thesis. Things are getting spicy.
Oh thank god it's Friday, the market can't go down over the weekend!
Oh shit, Bitcoin trades 24/7 fuck
What I meant was, it's trivial to create a view that prices all stock quote statistics in BTC rather than USD.
What I'm saying is that the actual engine of trade, the nuts and bolts of a stock exchange, would be the difficult part. I have no idea what it would take to allow customers to deposit BTC, and trade stock in BTC with BTC as the unit of account. Probably needs regulatory changes? I simply don't know enough though. It's an interesting proposition
BTC as displayed unit of account for everything is easily achievable. The regulatory stuff around an exchange that would facilitate actual stock trading in BTC? Yeah, that I'm not so sure about.
Anyone else have a glitch in the Primal app where the follow/unfollow button is broken? Apologies to nostr:nprofile1qqs2d0qm73kmvjynznwdknv9uxvcd6fe9f4ctu5ye88egdmtxpvr8dcpr4mhxw309ahhv6pwwpex7emnv4e8vetj9eekjar98g6rsdpcqyt8wumn8ghj7ct5d3shxtnwdaehgu3wd3skueqgl8zu0 if I've been spamming your notifications, I've been trying to ensure I'm actually following!
Someday in the future, BTC will be a unit of account, and debt obligations and prices will be in sats. At that point, there is no buyer and seller of Bitcoin, there is only exchange of money for goods and services 🫡
By 2035, I really do think international trade balance of payments will be conducted in BTC denominated exchanges. Mark it.
I've got a limit order set for $69,420. Still waiting!
buy set amounts on a schedule. unless you have a sophisticated tool that achieves results in predicting price movements with relative accuracy, you're simply guessing and therefore gambling if you try and time all of your buys.
I find the best (psychologicallly) is to both DCA with weekly buys and to have a bit of cash ready to grab dips of 5% or more. it helps with keeping cool.
never sell. only spend.
good for me, not so great for my retiree family members at this point unfortunately.
I advised them into a stock heavy boomer version of my 80/20 BTC portfolio: 25% Tbills in a ladder, 10% FBTC, 5% PHYS, 20% QQQ, and the rest in energy, real estate, and SPY. The 10% FBTC was very, very difficult to get agreement on. So far so good, but I'm nervous about how tech and spy heavy things are right now. Oil too looking like a poor short term allocation. May need to pivot
not looking for advice, just commenting since it's good to share and compare 🤝
Managing money is looking to be pretty difficult in the short and medium term of the Trump 2 era. I continue to be whiplashed left and right. Which is fine in my own case, but I give friendly advice to several family members close to or in retirement and MAN this is suddenly stressful
nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l suddenly going bearish was a bit of a whiplash moment. who bloody knows what's going to happen.
Bitcoin accumulation remains a north star though. That much is certain. never a bad time to acquire Bitcoin on a long time horizon
Bitcoin is a weapon against the very idea of government lol
I'll form an opinion on an SBR once I see a proposal for one. as yet, none exists.
a CrYPtO STRATEGIC thingy on the other hand, I have nothing but contempt for.
oh so THAT'S why the price started pumping
honestly would prefer Bitcoin was worth $20 if it meant the death of crypto shitcoin nonsense
why didn't penis dorter work EXTRA harder. Very sad.
The Danny WBD episode with nostr:npub1trr5r2nrpsk6xkjk5a7p6pfcryyt6yzsflwjmz6r7uj7lfkjxxtq78hdpu and Fictitious has some fire content in it. Particularly loved your citation, Alex, of the way America finances war has changed due to the public having less skin in the game (the only people who do now are the families and friends of those maimed or killed in war).
I think I've recommended him before, but Andrew Bachevic (a Reagan era US Army general) makes the same argument, that financing war rather than taxing leads to forever conflicts and misadventures.