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Undisciplined
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Convex combination of Ron Swanson and Britta Perry Cohost of The Stacker Sports Podcast

I think I get the general case for bullishness. People are slowly realizing that the dollar is failing and they're increasingly coming to understand the valuable properties of bitcoin. Since we expect the dollar and other fiats to fail, we see the system as being out of equilibrium and think the equilibrium value of bitcoin will be much higher.

I don't understand the case for why the very predictable and mechanical event of the bitcoin halving wouldn't be priced in prior to the halving. My question is about why the price would run up after the halving, when everyone is expecting that outcome. Why wouldn't all the people predicting that bull market load up on bitcoin prior to it?

Not any better than the meteorology models the ai is referencing. There are theoretical reasons, related to the Uncertainty Principle and chaos theory, why predictions beyond a couple weeks will never be reliable.

⚡️ #Bitcoin Anatomia 2023

1. Reduzir pela metade

2. Corrida de touros

3. Mercado em baixa

4. Corrida pré-halving

Repete Ciclo 🔁

para 1: À medida que a recompensa do bloco se aproxima de zero, o impacto de cada halving no mercado pode diminuir gradualmente.

para 2: O efeito do halving na corrida de touros foi significativo no passado, com ganhos de 9896% ➡️ 3491% ➡️ 725% ➡️ ?. No entanto, o efeito pode tornar-se menos significativo ao longo do tempo.

para 3: O halving também teve um impacto significativo no mercado baixista no passado, com perdas de -87% ➡️ -84% ➡️ -77% ➡️ ?. No entanto, o efeito pode tornar-se menos grave ao longo do tempo.

para 4: No momento, estamos na corrida pré-halving e, embora tudo possa acontecer, é altamente provável que haja ganhos significativos.

https://twitter.com/StockmoneyL/status/1648416563404341252

Share 🔁

[Publicado in Portuguese] https://t.me/TutorialBTC/7687

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- https://t.me/TutorialBTC/2165

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🛡 ₿ = ∞/21M

Cool illustration! It will be interesting to see if it comes true.

Why doesn't the Efficient Markets Hypothesis apply to the halvings, though?

It lets them exercise more control over banks, because now they survive by being in the good graces of the regime.

At any time they can allow a bank to fail and banks that don't toe the line will fail. It's through those bank failures that inflation will be reduced.

The problem with the Navy is that they kill innocent civilians for money, not that they hired a dude who performs in woman-face.

You have to finish asking your dumb questions before you can do really smart shit.

Replying to Avatar MDB

1/ The Trifecta:

Law, Language, and Money:

In a free society, three elements are crucial: free speech, sound money, and individual property rights.

Hayek pointed out that law and language evolved, while money became captured by banks and the state, causing monetary evil.

Enter #Bitcoin - the global game-changer robust monetary system.

2/ No Permission Needed

Satoshi knew that the only way to evolve money was without asking for permission.

#btc creates and enforces its own set of laws - no confiscation, censorship, inflation, or counterfeiting. It's a global, neutral money accessible to all.

3/ Enforcing the Laws of #Bitcoin

Through nodes, anyone can enforce Bitcoin's laws, accept valid messages, and reject rule-breakers.

Bitcoin's future is defined by those who craft transactions and run the numbers.

It's a game of rules, not authority.

4/ Asymmetric Defenses & #Crypto-economics

Bitcoin leverages cryptography's asymmetric defenses for economic advantage.

Cooperation is rewarded, conflict discouraged.

Private keys are secure, and the ledger is public.

Defense is affordable, disruption costly.

5/ #Bitcoin: The Triumphant Trifecta

#BTC uses free speech

(1) To create sound money.

(2) Enforce individual property rights.

(3) All without violence.

It empowers individuals to hold keys, run nodes, and do proof-of-work, exercising their freedom.

6/ Inalienable Rights

Free speech, sound money, and property rights shouldn't be limited by law.

#Bitcoin's existence relies on the fundamental rights to send transactions, use electricity for mining, have wallets, and hold bitcoin.

7/ The Sacredness of Free Speech

A society that values free speech should see Bitcoin as sacred.

Participating in the #Bitcoin network is an exercise in free speech, a fundamental prerequisite for the discovery and communication of Truth.

8/ Embracing the Limitation: 21 Million

The 21-million cap on #Bitcoin is an absolute limitation, brought into existence by those who run the numbers and exercise their rights to think and speak. This limitation creates a system of absolute Truth, without the need for violence.

Throughout history, the state has coopted each of those elements. Eventually, societies with fiat speech, money, and law get too corrupt to continue and they give way to a less distorted society.

Reminds me of New Mexico, except for the apparently well maintained road.

That is likely what will happen, but it isn't true. Modern central banking operates with full knowledge that they are distorting prices.

If we win, history books will accurately describe central banking as the crony grift it is.

Absolutely, I think he's the best articulator of Ancap ideas