GM. 🌅

As the price continues to rise, stay rational and do not let emotions control your actions.

One thing to remember is that, more than any other commodity in history, the Bitcoin market actual links to TWO others: The energy market and the currency market.

Think of the energy market, the currency market and the Bitcoin market as a triangle that must remain in balance. Like a rubber band they pull on each other, if they get too imbalanced they must correct.

Bitcoin's price on the currency market can rise and rise, without any grounding in reality, as retail FOMO really kicks in. (This phase still hasn't begun this cycle but it will soon as we keep making new ATHs.)

Bitcoin's price on the energy market, however, cannot rise uncontrollably no matter how much FOMO is going on with the currency market.

Because the mining network's ability to exchange kWH for Sats is limited by our ability to both produce cheap energy to sell, and our ability to create and use ASICS that do the work (securing the network with that energy in exchange for Sats).

When the price on the currency market goes much higher than the price on the energy market, then the price of the equipment (ASICS) that are able to create Bitcoin (for less than it costs on the open market) will go up and as it does so will production.

But, as ASICS are a free market good limited by our production capacity, the ability to produce new ASICS in response to demand will be too delayed. Partially because ramping up production right when we're historically about to have another major bear market, would be a foolish thing for a company to do.

When the currency market price quickly goes up way higher than the marginal cost of production is on the energy market, the price will inevitably crash to return to its marginal cost of production. This is necessary for the market to remain healthy and based in reality.

We may very well reach $500k or more on the currency market by the end of this cycle, but, if the average mining costs are unable grow to similar levels per coin in the same time frame, then it WILL correct.

Think about it logically, if it costs $80k to mine a Bitcoin today then it would require roughly tripling the hashrate of the mining network to bring it's marginal cost of production to $250k. Bitcoin is already the largest computational network on earth by a significant margin after 15 years. Do you really think that in less than 1 year we can triple it? This becomes more unlikely the older and larger the network gets.

Some people say the mining network has nothing to do with it's price, I couldn't disagree more. They are fundamentally linked and to think otherwise misses the big picture.

Bitcoin will not always be priced in dollars, it will ALWAYS be priced in kWH of energy. All Bitcoin are tokens that represents the value of the energy used to create new coins, which is consistently rising over time and will likely continue to do so at a sustainable pace.

Learn the game, play it, and win.

Selling Dollars for Bitcoin is best done when Bitcoin's price on the currency market is BELOW it's marginal cost of production on the energy market. Buying Dollars with Bitcoin is best done when it's price on the currency market is ABOVE its marginal cost of production on the energy market.

While the price is volatile, if the price on the currency market is above or below the price on the energy market then it's volatility will lean in the direction of the other market.

Since the two markets are fundamentally linked together and must remain close to each other over time, you're essentially arbitraging the two markets when you sell Bitcoin above it's energy cost and buy it back when it's below. This is not easy however, with many having tried to time the open market failing to do so.

I believe their mistake is in trying to time the currency market and ignoring the energy market. So consider both when deciding on long term moves, doing this you are more likely to grow your stack and also will help stabilize the price over the long term as arbitrage tends to do between markets.

Ignore the energy market at your own peril, whether you're a trader or a HODLer it's something in which you should be keenly paying attention.

Personal predictions:

$1 (USD) = 1000 Sats or less before the end of the year.

$1 = 160 - 400 sats somewhere around the end of the 3rd quarter 2025.

$1 = 800 - 1400 Sats around 4th quarter 2026.

$1 = 100 Sats or less mid to late 3rd quarter 2029.

Stay humble and stack sats.

☮️❤️₿

Story time:

6 years ago my mother in law was left penniless in a surprise divorce at age 67.

My father in law (piece of shit) had left her with nothing and planned to dump her on social security.

She was working as a pre school teacher making $14 an hour.

We had to move fast.

Father in law literally shotgun divorced her.

Showed up at the doorstep with a notary and manipulated an emotionally fragile woman into a binding legal agreement.

I was pissed.

I showed up a few hours later with a series of financial plans.

And with tears still streaming down her face in the kitchen of her tiny apartment, she picked one.

I gave her 3 options.

1. Aggressive

2. Extremely aggressive

3. Dave Ramsey rice and beans

She chose number 3.

Over the next 4 years she rode her bike to work everyday. Watered down her lemonade. Spent nothing on herself. Walked dogs for extra income. Took weekend shifts at the preschool. Showed up early. Stayed late and against all odds was able to save 12k a year on a salary of only 27k.

I set up a couple retirement accounts for her and whenever she would scratch $1,000 together she would give it to me and I would smash buy GBTC or MSTR.

My mother in law has never invested a day in her life and I didn’t want the news or some boomer friend to freak her out, so my wife and I just tell her she’s invested in “the market” 😂

When Bitcoin (the market) is doing good, we tell her and when it’s not we just… don’t tell her lol

So she’s effectively shielded from the emotional volatility of hodling. Which makes her a very good hodler.

Fast forward to today.

I helped her retire from the preschool. She is now living with us and helping look after her grandchildren.

She went from being near suicidal. My wife and I were legitimately concerned about her mental health. To a happy healthy and vibrant grandmother.

And as of yesterday she crossed 500k in retirement accounts.

I expect she’ll be a millionaire soon.

She can now comfortably retire with dignity.

This is not something that would have been possible without Bitcoin.

As cool as it is to see people like @saylor make billions of dollars these are the stories I live for.

The average person fixing their life with bitcoin.

It’s so fucking beautiful man.

Life’s good.

Someone needs to be the first in your family to buy #Bitcoin and retire your entire bloodline. What ya waiting for?

Question: If a friend has had a Ledger for a while and wants help transferring sats over from their Blue Wallet, would you help them?

Or wait till they get a bitcoin-only wallet?

I prefer to wait but they want to go ahead.

Thanks for sharing this. Read it through and sort of follow (non-tech person here :).. except I don’t understand why transactions are tracked in the context of their ancestors? Probably obvious, but could you, or someone, pls explain how a future fee rate is/can be estimated by a past fee rate? Thanks!

🇩🇪 #Germany is experiencing its worst order shortage since the 2009 financial crisis, with 41.5% of companies reporting a lack of orders in October 2024, up from 39.4% in July. The manufacturing sector is particularly hard hit, with nearly half (47.7%) of all companies reporting order shortages.

Of course without forgetting that they sold all their #Bitcoin 🤡

Me and my frens outperforming wall st dummies by posting memes and saying gm

If you think of thinking buying some useless material stuff especially some moronic Lambo with your #Bitcoin stack, just study harder and don’t be a slave to extern validation. Retiring your parents is real alpha.

GM 🧡⚡

I don't need price widgets or social media moon bois posting screenshots to tell me the price is up. I just check the amount of Passports being ordered.

Vote clowns, expect a circus. #Germany

Theory:

Kamala knew she was going to lose, so she spent the donor money on people that she owed favors to. Hence the billion dollars that got wasted.