China Afternoon Missive

“A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it." - Jean de La Fontaine. This would be a very apropos quote based upon a series of geopolitical decisions made by Trump over the past week.

We need no reminder, too, how overly obsessed Trump has been when it comes to the BRICS organization.

I’d also just add that there is no such thing as a coincidence when it comes to geopolitical maneuvering.

(B)razil: An executive order levying 50% tariffs on imports plus political demands placed on Lulu

(R)ussia: Rather self-explanatory. Russia bad. Threats of additional sanctions now imminent.

(I)ndia: The threat of 25% tariffs and a not so thinly veiled condemnation of ongoing ties with Russia.

(C)hina: The Main Event …. and the recent Stockholm meeting ends in a stalemate. A deadline looms large.

(S)outh Africa: The Oval Office clash and now Trump signaling that he won’t be attending the G20 meeting.

For each of the points raised above, there have been individual media reports highlighting the details of each. I’ve yet to see any reporting that connects what are, to my eye, very obvious dots.

With a number of announced trade deals (frameworks?), Trump is now clearly emboldened and with that has made the decision to shift focus and take on the BRICS. In doing so, however, what these individual actions actually achieve is the full vindication of the entire raison d'être of both the BRICS organization and, more informally, the Global South.

These groups were created to build a community of nations aligned in the purpose of countering increased American intimidation, primarily economic coercion. With a few strokes of an Executive Order pen, Trump demonstrated just how prescient that thinking was.

Disable access to the dollar SWIFT system. Appropriate hundreds of billions of FX reserves. Now we have the application of tariffs as a pressure tactic on nations to act in ways that are against their own sovereign interest. To mix my metaphors, this is a bridge too far and a bell that cannot be unrung.

Honestly, if left alone and not provoked then fissures among the BRICS membership countries would have ultimately surfaced. It is no secret that these nations all have real, not to mention numerous, issues with each other. Patience, if applied, would have won out in the end. Patience, I’m afraid, is just not in the American vernacular.

What is it that America can expect? Basically, steely determination by all Global South nations under the guidance and coordination of Chinese leadership.

Bravo President Trump. While your aim in targeting BRICS is to maintain USD hegemony, actions such as these only increase the probability of the very outcome you are seeking to avoid.