have a good feeling about today. way different than last week.
Thursday Night Observations
That was more or less what I had expected, but that doesn’t make it any less unpleasant.
I also foolishly decided to start Daniel Jones over a concussed Anthony Richardson and newly-acquired Baker Mayfield at the last second. I looked at the projected points on a couple sites, it was close between all three players, so I figured why not use the guy I was so high on. Brian Daboll will scheme him some points. LOL. Good luck scheming points against an elite defensive line while fielding the league’s worst offensive line without Andrew Thomas. That interception on the team’s penultimate drive was just the kick in the ass on the way out the door.
The Giants actually showed up more than they did for the season’s first-six quarters, but that’s damning with faint praise. Their defense played okay, but like a lot of defenses they couldn’t tackle Deebo Samuel.
It’s almost as though the other players in the league just fall down when defenders tackle them in a kind of gentleman’s agreement: “Oh, I see you’ve got me tackled, I’ll just fall to the ground to make sure neither of us have to use extra energy we might need for later.” But Deebo is like: “This is a fight to the death. I will not go down until you kill me, and I will do this on every play. “
On the 49ers first touchdown drive the Giants had the 49ers at 3rd-and-15, and they threw a screen to Deebo, who got 30 yards doing just that. On the same drive, they had them 3rd-and-13, and they got a big screen pass to Christian McCaffrey to convert. McCaffrey and George Kittle aren’t quite as tough as Deebo, but they’re still in the top-10 percent of violating the agreement.
Danny Dimes actually played fine. His interception was off Darren Waller’s hands, he took only two sacks, he got rid of the ball and made accurate throws. Of course, all of those throws were only about five yards down the field, and he didn’t have much room to scramble, either. Life behind the league’s worst offensive line on the road on a short week, while facing its best defensive line.
Darren Waller (7-3-20-0) did little and caused the interception, but also the PI he drew to set up the Giants’ only touchdown doesn’t show up in the box score. The Giants just weren’t able to throw downfield much and use his skills.
Matt Breida/Gary Brightwell were roughly a 50/50 timeshare with Breida scoring the lone TD on a nice run. There wasn’t much to see as the Giants only ran the ball eight times, not including two QB scrambles.
The Giants wide receivers were similarly irrelevant as there was no time for any plays to develop and only two drives sustained. Wan’Dale Robinson (5-4-21-0) was back and should have a role, but there are just so many WR3 types there.
Christian McCaffrey (18-85-1, 5-5-34-0) had a quiet night, scoring 22.9 PPR points. That’s how you become the RB1 — quietly put up 20-plus per game, and then explode for 30 or 40 a few times.
Deebo Samuel (1-2-0, 12-6-129-1) was the star of the game. In addition to carrying Giants on his back, he also scored on a nice back-shoulder 40-yard TD. Of course, Brandon Aiyuk was out, and assuming he’s back the rest of the way, I don’t think Samuel hits 12 targets again this year. (Samuel’s high in 2022 was 10.)
George Kittle (9-7-90) had a strong game, doing his best Samuel imitation after the catch. He too benefitted from having one fewer pass catcher in the fold.
Brock Purdy (310 yards, 2 TDs) played well enough. He’s the best argument for “quarterbacks don’t matter” possibly in league history. (Well, aside from Nick Foles beating Tom Brady in the Super Bowl.) Purdy was the last pick in the draft, and virtually anyone competent would thrive with the personnel around him. Imagine if they had invested the Trey Lance draft capital to bolster an already excellent offense and defense instead. But Purdy is competent enough, and throwing screens to Deebo, McCaffrey and Kittle is as easy as it gets.
Graham Gano got me a zero in Week 1, but he freaking blasted that 57-yard field goal right down the middle. It would have been good from 60, even if the goal-posts were only eight feet wide. You are living in the golden age of kicking, and you don’t even appreciate it!
Monday Night Observations
I made the mistake of watching the Steelers game first, and it showed the score of the Panthers-Saints in the top left corner. That meant I had to watch the 48-minute (they’ve beefed it up from 40 with unnecessary replays) versions for two games while knowing the result of he really dull one.
(Admittedly I was checking the MLB scores while it was on, and also going down a Twitter Fourth Turning rabbit hole explaining why we’re all doomed and finding it uncomfortably plausible.)
In any event, I resolved the issue with the 48-minute version being unavailable by having a dentist appointment at 9 am and watching after I got back. Apparently when I was trying to watch at 7 am Western European Time (WET), it’s only 2 am ET, and they hadn’t finished the edits yet.
. . .
The big story is obviously Nick Chubb being out for the year with a knee injury. Remarkably Chubb has *never* averaged fewer than 5.0 YPC in his five-plus-year career and was at 6.1 YPC so far this season.
It’s always unfortunate when one of the greats in the league gets hurt, but less so when he’s not on any of your fantasy teams. That might sound cold, but don’t lie to yourself. The amount of teeth gnashing and emotional distress you experience due to Chubb going down varies directly with the number of shares in which you invested (assuming you’re not a die-hard Browns fan.) Had I taken him early second in the Primetime, something for which I studied and prepped and in which invested $1,750, it might ruin my entire day.
That said, I wouldn’t gloat about it even if it obviously helps you. It’s not that it affects him if you gloat, but that it’s a bad habit to get used to enjoying real-life harm solely for competitive edge, financial gain or (the most ignominious) spiteful virtue signaling:
Hopefully Chubb comes back as strong as ever in 2024, that is, assuming the posters in rabbit hole down which I went are off the mark.
. . .
Kenny Pickett looks like Bryce Young to me — a young QB that makes some throws, moves pretty well, but I can’t tell if he’s any good. No opinion on either player.
It seemed like Najee Harris (10-43-0, 3-1-0-0) was on the ropes for a minute, after he dropped a pass, and Jaylen Warren (6-20-0, 6-4-66-0) got in the game and immediately started making plays out of the backfield as a receiver. But Harris made a couple bruising runs later in the game to remind people of his skill set. Mike Tomlin doesn’t typically split backfields, but this looks like a real split.
George Pickens (10-4-127-1) mostly got his on the 71-yard TD catch over the middle where he broke one tackle and was gone. He’s obviously the guy now that Diontae Johnson is out. I picked up Allen Robinson (3-2-12-0) in a few places and was encouraged by Pickett targeting him a couple times on the first series, but then I never saw Robinson on the screen or heard him mentioned again.
I actually lost my Steak League matchup on the T.J. Watt TD return (we use IDPs in that league.)
Deshaun Watson didn’t have a great stat line, and the Browns lost, but he looked good to me. Smooth in the pocket, quick feet, knowing when to scramble. I’m bullish on him going forward as he looks like the guy in Houston.
Jerome Ford (16-106-0, 4-3-25-1) proved Chubb is just a system back. Seriously, Ford looked pretty good, and he’s going to fetch a pretty penny in FAAB as in 80-plus percent of budgets I’d imagine.
In my Dynasty League (the one I traded Travis Etienne for Taysom Hill and Amari Cooper), I had Donovan Peoples-Jones (4-1-7-0) in for Cooper (10-7-90-0) Monday night, thinking I’d switch it if Cooper were active, but I got so little sleep Sunday night (after the late games went into OT) I went to bed at 10 pm last night and forgot to swap Cooper back in. That team is bad anyway, so I’m not sweating it too much, and the deal isn’t looking so terrible given Hill’s role last night.
When Dustin Hopkins crushes a 55-yarder down the middle, you know we’re in the golden age of kicking.
Taysom Hill (9-75-0, 1-1—1-0) is still a beast, but he’s only the goal-line-running quarterback. With Jamaal Williams going down, Tony Jones (12-34-2) is the goal-line running back. I have no idea how long Williams will be out, and don’t forget Alvin Kamara is coming back soon.
Chris Olave (11-6-86-0), Michael Thomas (9-7-55-0) and Rashid Shaheed (4-4-63-0) all did their thing given the low-scoring slog of a game it was.
As I said, I don’t really have a read on Young. He doesn’t strike me as obviously terrible, but I’m not scrambling to trade for him for my likely-selling-soon dynasty league team, either.
Miles Sanders (14-43-0, 5-3-4-0) and Chuba Hubbard (2-16-0, 5-5-34-0) seem to be settling into a modest 65/35 timeshare that’s no one’s first choice.
Adam Thielen (9-7-54-1) looks like the NFC’s DeAndre Hopkins this year, the older veteran receiver getting targets you’re comfortable using. That’s meant to be modest praise for Thielen and maybe a little shade on the current incarnation of Hopkins.
Barkley apparently doesn't have a high-ankle sprain. Hopefully, just out for the Thursday night game, and back for Week 4.
Week 2 Observations
Setting fantasy football lineups is a bit like the Squid Game Hopscotch wherein the players have to walk across a bridge, with each incremental step either on a firm glass panel that will support their weight, or a flimsy one they’ll break through and fall to their deaths.
Each step is individually 50/50 to get right, but the odds they navigate the entirety of the bridge are 1 in 2 ^ x, with x being the number of steps. If there were only eight steps, the odds of making it would be 1 in 512. To put that in perspective, consider if, for example, the Texans played the Eagles in Philadelphia, the odds the of the Texans winning outright would be something like 1 in 14,
Keep this in mind when you have eight coin-flip lineup calls. The odds you get them all correct are like crossing a (short) version of the bridge in Hopscotch. Chances are you’ll crash to your death at least a few times every Sunday. Accordingly, the feeling you’ve accidentally swallowed a large peach pit after you sat Dak Prescott for Brock Purdy (particularly after they changed the ruling on Purdy’s lone TD pass to a handoff) is virtually inevitable.
Maybe everyone else knows this already, but I’ve played fantasy football for almost 30 years, and part of me still expects to get nine out of 10 decisions right. I think it’s because I started playing in an easier era, where it was mostly TD-driven, and the league was so deep you didn’t have a lot of tough decisions. Whatever the reason, it’s dawning on me I’ll be tortured with regret every single week, there’s nothing I can do about it and really the only bankable joy in fantasy football is knowing others are in the same — and likely even worse — boats than me.
. . .
But I’ve buried the lede which is the Giants epic comeback. Down 20-0 at half, the Giants opened the season at a 60-0 deficit, the largest in NFL history. For six quarters, they couldn’t generate a drive or get a stop. I placed a futures bet on them to win the Super Bowl before the season, and it looked instead like they were the favorites to land the No. 1 overall pick.
But Danny Dimes played out of his mind in the second half, the Giants’ long drives finally bought the defense a rest, and in the fourth quarter, they finally got some stops. So much for my plan in two leagues to draft their defense (zero points) so I could use them against the Cardinals though.
The Giants offensive line played surprisingly well in the second half despite missing Andrew Thomas, but it’s bizarre how a team with Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux can’t generate any rush aganst a mediocre offensive line. For three quarters, Josh Dobbs was slinging the ball to wide open receivers play after play, and James Conner ran like the guy on PCP in Last Boy Scout right before he pulled a gun and started shooting defenders. (Real Man Sports, indeed.)
The only lead lining in the comeback was Saquon Barkley turning his ankle after the Giants had more or less salted away the game-winning field-goal try. It was a run into the teeth of the defense to chew clock any back could have handled, but he happened to take it, and some lineman rolled on top of him. It wasn’t as bad as two years ago against the Cowboys when someone stepped on his ankle accidentally after the whistle had blown, but it’s was an unexpected boot to the testicles just when things were looking up.
And while I’m ecstatic the Giants won, would it have killed them to score the TD there and cover?
If the Giants defense doesn’t improve, they could be the carnival team this year. Dimes (321 pass yards, 2 TD, 9-59-1 on the ground) did almost all his damage in one half. Darren Waller (8-6-76-0) was involved on key third downs, Jalin Hyatt (2-2-89-0) caught two deep balls and Barkley (17-63-1, 7-6-29-1) scored on the ground and in the air. It might not seem like much, but remember it was almost entirely in one half.
Desmond Ridder is basically just a younger, healthier Marcus Mariota so far as I can tell.
Bijan Robinson (19-124-0, 5-4-48-0) again looked the part of a superstar running back while Tyler Allgeier (16-48-0) did not. Robinson even got one goal-line carry this week, but Allgeier saw one while I was watching too. The separation between the two players was obvious, though, and I have no regrets (yet) having paid up for Robinson in three leagues.
I have Kyle Pitts in one league, and he’s not startable right now.
AJ Dillon (15-55-0, 1-1-8-0) got a chance with Aaron Jones out and didn’t do much.
I don’t know what to make of Jordan Love yet, but he’s above a certain floor at least, and he’s playing with the league’s worst receiving corps right now. If Love turns out to be good, the Packers would have gone Favre-Rodgers-Love without a single year in the wilderness. Contrast that with teams like the Bears and Browns who spent decades there.
So much for the angle that the bizarre handling of the Damar Hamlin incident might affect the Bills. At least for this week, they were focused and prepared. Not that the Cowboys were a tough sweat in Survivor, either.
It’s hard to read much into blowouts, but the Bills gave James Cook (17-123-0, 4-4-36-0) all the important carries except the touchdowns. But that other role is split 50/50 between Latavius Murray (6-22-1, 2-2-9-0) and Damien Harris (7-33-1), and with Josh Allen also capable of goal-line work, the non-Cook RBs are unusable.
Josh Jacobs (9—2-0, 6-5-51-0) got totally stuffed, but he was Jimmy Garoppolo’s check-down on virtually every drive before the game got out of hand. Jacobs will catch a lot of balls this year if he stays healthy.
Joe Burrow had a better game than in Week 1, but that was a low bar to clear, and apparently he aggravated his calf injury. He and his receivers should have come at a discount during draft season, but they did not.
The Seahawks are involved in an uncanny number of strange games, and this was one. I’m glad DK Metcalf (6-6-75-0) was able to come back from his rib injury, but it sounds like the kind of thing that could linger.
Jared Goff snapped his near all-time record streak of passes without an interception in style — a pick six.
The Chargers were too soft to lay wood on the road against a hard Titans team, no matter the disparity in skill talent.
Looks like I’ll be fading Keenan Allen (10-8-111-2) all the way through his Hall of Fame induction. (I doubt he’ll make it unless the Chargers win something, but he might crack 1,000 catches.)
Why would an ostensibly contending team draft Quentin Johnston in the first round if they’re not planning to use him?
I have three shares of Chris Godwin (8-5-58-0) when I could have gotten Mike Evans (8-6-171-1) for cheaper.
I mocked Racchad White (17-73-1, 5-5-30-0) as one of this year’s Mike Davises, but then he broke a couple tackles for a touchdown on the very next play. Maybe Alexander Mattison is the real Davis.
The Chiefs-Jaguars game had a total of 51, by far the highest on the board, and I picked up and started kicker Brandon McManus in a league for that reason. Luckily he scored all the Jaguars points.
Patrick Mahomes targeted 11 different receivers in the first half, 12 in the game. Travis Kelce (9-4-26-1) didn’t seem all the way back yet, either.
I started Anthony Richardson over Kirk Cousins in a league and was aghast when I saw Cousins’ stat-line Friday morning. But then Richardson put up two rushing TDs in the first quarter, and I thought maybe it would turn out just fine. Until he got concussed and forced to leave the game. It would have been more annoying but (a) in my other Richardson league, I started Danny Dimes, and (b) Richardson still had the courtesy of getting you 18 points before leaving. Many quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, e.g,) do not.
Sean McVay made an epic decision to kick the FG down 10 on the game’s final play to cover the spread. A lesser coach would have thrown a failed Hail Mary in a futile attempt to cut the loss to three.
I made a Cam Akers/Kyren Williams ROS bet after Week 1 with Alan Seslowsky last week. Luckily it was only for $20. The Akers-back-in-the-doghouse-yet-again storyline would be more hilarious to me had I not drafted him in one league. Maybe the Ravens will trade for him.
I still don’t know who Puka Nacua (20-15-147-0) is, but 20 targets does the trick every time. Nacua has broken every record for targets and catches over the first two career games. You can see why Cooper Kupp is so valuable because that’s his role, and he’s actually good. Tutu Atwell (9-7-77-0) is getting his reps too.
It’s a relief when you’re facing Christian McCaffrey (20-116-1, 3-3-19-0), and this is his line.
There was a moment when the Jets seemed like they had a chance — Zach Wilson hit Garrett Wilson for a 68-yard TD, then showed his scrambling ability on a field-goal drive to close the half. But Wilson looked more like himself when the Jets were shut out in the second half, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets bring in a veteran before the season gets away from them.
I almost wanted to sit CeeDee Lamb against the Wilson-Jets because it’s a tough defense, and the Jets offense isn’t going to push you, but Lamb (13-11-143-0) is at the peak of his powers, and the Cowboys (especially without Brandin Cooks) really don’t have a No. 2.
The Team-Broncos game was very weird, but I was paying attention to it the least of the four late games.
Russell Wilson put up good numbers, thanks to the Hail Mary at the end, but there’s still something off about both him and Sean Payton. It seemed like they weren’t even trying to get the ball down the field to their playmakers when they were trailing late.
Brian Robinson (18-87-2, 3-2-42-0) is a bruiser, and they’re throwing him a couple passes early on too. Speaking of The Last Boy Scout scene, he played the real-life version of that last year and returned after only a few weeks.
If I had to describe the current iteration of the Patriots I’d say they’re an experiment in how many gun fights you can win with only a knife. There doesn’t seem to be any other purpose in fielding that particular roster.
Baller cover by the Rams there. More than a moral victory, the victory that matters.
seriously amazing comeback, but sucks that Barkley looks like he has another high-ankle sprain.
would it kill the Giants to cover there?
would it kill the Giants to play any defense whatsoever?
James Conner running like the guy on PCP in The Last Boyscout
WTF is going on with the Giants. 54-0 to start the year and counting.
nothing I give a shit about less than watching replay reviews. Just tell me the result.
Desmond Ridder is this year's Marcus Mariota
What if Jordan Love is good? The Packers could go Favre-Rodgers-Love without a break. The Bears and Browns waited 30 years to get a decent QB.
Took the Titans ATS vs Chargers because Titans are hard, Chargers are soft. We'll see if that's enough to overcome the talent disparity
Games are opening up in the second half
11 different Chiefs targeted in the first half -- unusable.
O/U in KC/JAX was 51. 3-0 in the closing minutes of the first half.
Richardson out, concussed. At least he had he courtesy to put up 20-odd points before leaving.
Justin Fields holding the ball way too long.