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Ben Ewing
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And yet the USD has strengthened considerably against both those currencies during that time period

The Ewing rule: sell when your family say you’re a genius and buy when they say you’re a moron

Someone that lies, cheats, steals from you or even assaults you or rapes you is not ‘bad’ ‘wrong or ‘evil’, they are just ‘limited’. They simply cannot do better considering their current level of understanding or awareness. Do not find fault in others. Instead wonder if in fact the finger pointing at them should really be pointing back at you.

When did it become unpopular to make fun of poor people. I think that was a big loss

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

Hi Lyn, got a question. If the fed was forced to do balance sheet expansion again, wouldn’t this have to be offset by fiscal tightening in order to keep the USD at a rate that didn’t increase inflation (especially if there were also rate cuts)?

I just put my price up 7.5% for a service I perform for the Australian Federal Government.

I hope they appreciate that this is a one-off price rise, and the charge will normalise after this. I definitely don’t see the increase as an inflationary process.

In a well-run country, governments should be like the firmware/ bitcoin base layer. They provide the fundamentally stable rails (basic infrastructure, basic regulation, courts, security) on which the two layers above operate.

Corporations and businesses are the hardware/ lightning network. They produce products and services that maintain and improve our standard of living.

Humans are the software or nodes that keep the two systems running and, even more importantly, keep the other two fulfilling their appropriate roles.

‘The Left’s view is actually a far more attractive view of the world. The only problem is it doesn’t work.’ Thomas Sowell

You know when you get to the end of the day and it’s time for bed when you read something and your brain just says ‘look, I know you want to, but just go to bed and find the words in the morning’. Goodnight.

Replying to Avatar melissa

GM...

I came for like 10 months, burned out on life in general and went to my home country (and encountered a few personal challenges). Barely posted on any socials for six months because I just didn't feel like it (pushed myself a couple of times to show up, it just didn't feel great)... And I'm back. Maybe I will burn out again. Maybe I will disappear again for a month or three. This is life for me #projector (this makes sense to some people) 😂

I totally get what nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u is saying though. It's one of the biggest challenges. I show people and they are like, ah-ha I get it. But it's hard to switch out of the old when all your network of connections is some where else. The thing that keeps me from completely deactivating my other socials is my family and travel family friends I've made. It's still how I figure out who is in which countries and where we might go next. I'll keep trying to move them across and hopefully it will really catch on soon. 🤞 nostr:note1nnddek0q5h0v68lscs8tfetyt7w80hc3nvletzq8gdctarhht4gsuxk3z7

Anyone who orgasms for that length of time would likely face significant mental and physical stress. The human orgasm, even in females, can be extended for several minutes, but if it were to last several months there would be risk of severe physical and mental harm. Please consult a healthcare provider if you are experiencing this for further information to address the underlying cause.

Replying to Avatar corndalorian

Actually pretty sure that’s water in there. If it was petrol he’d already be dead

You could try setting up your wallet so people can zap you

Replying to Avatar corndalorian

I really hope not

One thing I noticed about gen z, especially the guys, is that they seem to have great skin. Like minimal sun damage. I guess being an indoor kid has some benefits as an adult.

I’m 100% convinced that my oven grill is a small nuclear reactor. Literally not possible for it to be as powerful as it is through mains power alone

Atheism has been around for at least two Millenia and in 2024 you still have to have a religion in the fourth most populated country in the world, so maybe give bitcoin a little longer than15 years before writing it off on the basis of adoption proving value.

Yes you did and I mentioned that not everyone knew about it the day satoshi released the whitepaper, and then you said ‘well everyone has heard of it now’ and I addressed that point too.

Not sure why you keep relying on arguments you can’t defend and so instead throw out a different one-liner until you’ve exhausted all three you have and so just circle back to the first one and hope I forgot what you said like three two-line posts earlier

Replying to Avatar Felipe

It is a refreshing perspective to consider, when my beliefs have caused much animosity and resentment:

nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a suggests that the introduction and need for speed in the settlement layer of domestic and international transactions not satisfied by the properties of gold, was the main incentive for policymakers and central bankers to issue more paper claims for gold in relation to actual gold held in reserves.

It was the evolution of technology in the global financial system, or lack thereof, that incentivized what we today call money printing, not greed or evil.

When I understood her point, my heart started to heal from the correlated anger and frustration for cental planners.

Sure, they are to blame for misusing the system to their advantage, however not for the ability to misuse it.

#economy #USDebt #bitcoin

Honestly I think that makes it worse. They had explicit reasons why this system had to have vulnerabilities and exploited it regardless. But it was a massive oversight to allow politicians to appoint judges that oversee the laws. What do you think is going to happen with that conflict of interest