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lucash.dev
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Security Researcher. Entrepreneur. Censorship Resistance advocate.

Pharma stocks have jumped 20% in a few days.

That can’t mean anything good.

Twitter has become even more annoying than before by becoming “X, formerly known as Twitter”

Social media sucks

“…in the last days of the Old Empire, humanity lost its drive. Terran civilization had spread across the stars, but grew stagnant. With few ambitions, most people allowed efficient machines to perform everyday tasks for them. Gradually, humans ceased to think, or dream …or truly live.”

Dune: The Butlerian Jihad

That’s unpopular for a reason.

Depending on the timeframe it’s perfectly possible to beat Bitcoin returns.

There is no telling exactly how fast Bitcoin adoption will happen. And a business can become cashflow positive in a short time depending on what it is.

Besides there’s self fulfilment and lifestyle to consider. Work for another 10 years or more on a job that makes you unhappy while accumulating Bitcoin or follow your dreams and create value today for yourself and others? I know what I would choose.

Finally, if your idea is for a *Bitcoin business* there’s a chance you’ll beat Bitcoin returns even through full adoption.

Some people are setting the arbitrary goal that other people must, by 2030-2050 be completely “carbon neutral” whatever that means.

I think by 2030 the world will be completely de-decarbonized and nobody will care about those “goals”

When I was a teenager we where the only people in the neighbourhood who owned a computer — actually the only people to ever use one.

One of my neighbours was afraid of going in the room where we kept the computer — it might wake up and attack her with lasers!

People are reacting to AI the same way today.

And politicians and cronies are ready to capitalize on that.

Ask ChatGPT to answer a problem that has two levels of recursion and it might work.

Ask it for something that has 10 levels of recursion and it will either produce nonsense or get stuck in an infinite loop until it exhausts the maximum number of characters

It can be anything simple like write code that writes code that writes hello world.

Once you understand the nature of the limitations, it’s funny how stupid the thing actually is.

The existential threat isn’t Artificial Intelligence

It’s Natural Stupidity

Ask ChatGPT to write something in reverse character order, or upside down and you’ll see how much “intelligence” that thing actually has.

The problem isn’t that it can’t do that, that would be a huge improvement. It actually produces utter nonsense, like it had a stroke or something.

It can’t abstract anything, only repeat patterns it has seen millions of times.

Yet you can be sure there’ll be people who’ll try to force us to obey those things bc the AI is the “expert”

Replying to Avatar Laser

More and more I am coming to suspection that, through various avoidable factors, mankind had fallen into a late-stage industrial era #Malthusian trap of it's own making.

Propelled by industrialization, we began to consume the future unsustainable and to great excess. Fueled by credit creation, we neglected the top soil (monocropping practices), we neglected the ground water (pollution), we neglected the oceans (overfishing, pollution), and we neglected our own obligation to productivity and responsibility.

According to Malthus *and* Mises, the situation will resolve it's self either by (a) the lowering of living standards, (b) famine, pestilince, and war, (c) fertility/population controls, and finally, (d) technogical innovation that bolster the supply side of the problem.

Just like with hunter gatherers, the invention of tools in the industrial era have skewed towards the enhancement of consumption rather than securing production gains large enough to sustainably support behemoth populations and their high expectations to living standards.

I am starting to believe that we irreversibly entered the Malthusian trap some 50-60 years ago, and now are facing the reality of an accelerating Malthusian Catastrophe.

Sovereigns in the West seem to have been engaging in increasingly overt fertility/population controls, with the elimination of savings, the trans craze, and even Covid's anti fertility shots and euthanasia of both a small % of the young and old.

Billionaire philanthropists seem to be exploiting nation's desire to navigate through the Malthusian Catastrophe without revolution or collapse by launching futuristic food ventures: bug farms and lab grown meats.

The liberal world order is predictably splitting into a multi polar world order, as the consensus of societal breakdown has likely been established across nations and the Malthus gauranteed conflicts for base resources and food commence.

The good news, is that the pressure of Malthusian Catastrophes (when they don't result in lost civilizations) push mankind to remidiate the underlying factors that resulted in the Malthusian Trap to begin with.

#Bitcoin, regenerative agriculture, ancestrial living/eating, the restoration of the family unit, the dissolving of the welfare state, and the defunding of thr war machine.

We will come out of this Malthusian Catastrophe with a smaller population (in due time), but far more humble and with responsibility decentralized again into individuals, families, and townships.

Malthusianism is nonsense.

Most human production has gains of scale.

Maybe fiat inflation has led to lower long-term investment to secure future consumption.

But that has nothing to do with a Malthusian trap.

A sudden, explosive population growth can result in temporary exhaustion of resources and famines.

What we’re seeing is the opposite.

A sudden collapse in productivity.

Reducing the population would only make things worse.

All you need is to stop preventing people from being productive.

Compression, prediction, classification, are all just facets of the same underlying problem.

And none of that is anything even remotely related to what we usually mean by “intelligence” or what we used to mean by that at least.

Intelligence is about understanding the real world. Not manipulating abstract symbols separated from their essential meaning.

Even if true AI is possible — it would require far more than parsing billions of texts to achieve.

The problem is very similar to the Oracle problem in Blockchain.

If your AI simply assumes certain training set to represent reality — then the actual intelligence is entirely in the selection of that training set.

To be precise we should rename AI as “Augmented Intelligence”.

And the intelligence that is being augmented isn’t the user’s — but that of the people who train and control the algorithm— while the user’s intelligence — their ability to comprehend reality — is in fact being diminished by outsourcing it to external, centrally controlled oracles.

While I think it might be theoretically possible for extraterrestrial civilizations to send unmanned probes to Earth…

The idea that the US govt would find them and keep it a secret while not a single private person has ever obtained one is just ludicrous.

That doesn’t mean necessarily the whistleblowers are lying.

“Intelligence” agencies have been known to be stupid enough to end up believing their own psyops and falling for a number of hoaxes — like all the psychic BS they spent lots of money investigating.

You want to find someone ready to believe any nonsensical conspiracy theory — just go to a CIA building.

Mk-ultra is a tale about how even a literally mad scientist can get the government to believe utter nonsense and give them money and license to commit all sorts of crimes.

They’re not genius supervillains secretly controlling the world — they’re just government employees, and not necessarily the brightest ones.

And definitely they aren’t the first to “make contact”.

Sorry folks, it seems we’ll have to just deal with the fact that humans are in fact special after all. We’re alone in the universe. All the 8 billion of us.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution

(actually even before that) every major new technological development has been paraded as a threat and proof we need central planning or we’ll all die.

- Factories

- Electricity

- Computers

- Phones

- The Internet

- AI

What else?

It’s always the same discourse since the 19th century. And every time we learn that in fact the more complex a system and the least predictable— the more dangerous it is to try and centrally plan it, and the best to letting

Yet people insist making the same stupid points again and again.

Long time I haven’t posted here.

Really lost the excitement about Nostr.

I don’t believe it’s good enough for actual censorship resistance in the long term.

On the other hand it seems like everyone is happy with it and think it’s good enough.

So there isn’t a lot of incentive for my research on better (or actual) censorship resistant global broadcast systems.

That means work that people actually want and pay me money for gets priority and I don’t touch much the “pro bono” research.

But I will eventually just compile everything I have so far and publish — even if I don’t have a proper working prototype.

Realized there’s no rush. At this point it would take new major attacks against free speech platforms for people to get interested in alternative protocols — in particular the ones not optimized for sharing memes or sending micro payments.

Meanwhile I work, eat lots of stake, and in general enjoy life before we all die in WW3.

Every tech conference I attended in the past couple decades was exactly like that.

Sales pitch after sales pitch, with “parties”, pretty girls pretending to be interested in you, and “free stuff” during the breaks.

That’s why I always tried to avoid them, and haven’t attended any in a while.

I never understood why people like that stuff.

I can party with people who actually like me on my own time with my own money — and not have to listen to endless sales bs.

And I can have productive business meetings with people actually interested in selling real world solutions on company time.

But that’s just the way things are.

Everyone is a scammer.

Even Bitcoiners.