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Kane McGukin
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#Bitcoin + Monetary Innovation. My opinions are my own and not financial advice. Navigating Bitcoin’s Noise 🎙️http://apple.co/3wFbiiq

All the “ations” are tools of power and control.

Adop-”tion” and Innov-“ation” are the natural funnel that has further pushed power into fewer hands over centuries. Each pass has tightened the grip on the masses; the “free”.

In the long run it all boils down to the moral intent, or lack there of, of those in posi-“tions” of power. Because the above average person will not opt out due to fear of missing out on keeping up with the Jones’. Additionally, people from below tend to feel joining the party is the only means to a better life. Too many chase the wind.

People need rules but most find themselves lost without rulers which is the driving force behind the conundrum we find ourselves in.

The bread crumbs were pretty high at #Bitcoin 2024.

https://open.substack.com/pub/kanemcgukin/p/bitcoin-is-change-management

It’s clear that monetary tech is once again in the crosshairs of weaponization. Civilizations have risen and fallen based on two things productivity and innovation in monetary technology.

Yes. Run by corporates who will hodl but adhere to whatever political policy desires are.

Check out episode 56 where Brian Harrington and I discuss integrating #Bitcoin with the ACH network at nostr:npub1a27t5chyqgfygncyfqwzpvvkrms6shhal9756jkgnpyzjqpsz5jqama5yp.

🎙️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/navigating-bitcoins-noise/id1583424361

As life gets more complex, having the flexibility to seemlessly move between savings and spending tech becomes essential.

You can’t turn the Titanic all at once. But the shifting of the rudder can help explain the direction.

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Beginning to age well… #bitcoin

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My base case is just like all other man made monies, #bitcoin will fail at some point, but likely 80-100 years off. We all won’t have to worry about it then. People at that time will have to figure out a new solution or a better means. The internet was also always about to fail due to scaling issues.

#Bitcoin is following a very similar path to gold: > USD > treasuries > Petro dollars… all just L2, L3, & L4 layers on gold.

I say these points, not as a slight, not to instigate, or out of negative intent towards BTC, but from a review and understanding of how money, people, currency, and empires have risen and fallen over long time frames.

Gold is the only money that has lasted. Land is the only other one (form) but it’s not transactional and is taxable (erosion). Bitcoin could last as long as gold & land, who knows.

But, it is following the path of man made money because we tend to think in currency rather than wealth terms. As “money” moves from sound to unsound, additional layers are built. Offer a means to satisfy human greed, sometimes for good and sometimes for bad.

A process as repetitive as the sun rising from the east to the west. Some means succeed longer, some fail faster. In success, the rise of sound and setting of unsound money is less noticeable as it happens over many decades, not 24 hours.

#Bitcoin is proving to be, at minimum, a base layer money. It’s different because it offers a formidable transactional option (on the back of storing value) unlike gold or land. Though much improved, it still has similar limiting flaws on the transactional side. Why? Bc there is a difference btw money and currency that can’t be solved IMO. One is storage of wealth and one is spending of wealth, those two components naturally go in opposite directions.

BTC has entered the phase of putting currency layers on-top of the foundation faster than expected. A fashion sooner, but similar to Bretton Woods, 31 years after the FED. It could also be viewed as a failed solution that happened much earlier in our attempt at wildcat banking.

Sage advice from Andy later in the show… of course non-financial. If one reads the prospectus of daily levered products, they find the intent.

As Saylor points out most don’t read past a few sentences. On pg. 2+ are the specific details: designed for hedging/can go to $0 over time.

Note all the reverse splits in related products = erosion of purchasing power by creating dopamine hits of +emotion.

It’s the one ⛳️ shot that keeps you coming back, though you have a terrible handicap.

They are very similar to the FED’s 🖨️ by 👉 for the product managers.

I would encourage you to go back and read the legal docs of Genesis and Grayscale. The BTC held was not perceived to be an issue the borrow/lend relationships that encumbered it was an issue and did cause problems, specifically when the broader market got tight. This is typical during liquidity events, regardless of the asset class.

Supply/demand?

More supply of UTXOs when ordinal activity spikes, meaning miners can be more selective of what from the mempool goes into a block (picking higher fee transactions)? When the flurry of interest dies off there are less large fee transactions and others hold off until things settle? Very similar to a pump and dump scheme?

Just a guess.

Another good one that will get skimmed over; people will miss all associated leverage that’s discussed/shed light on.

Around the 45 min mark Saylor discusses all the easy to see associated risk. Before that, the discussion around premium equity and issuing premium converts at premium equity, is a key point. The *potential* risk is the 6 year mark. Not sure if that’s an actual number or just an example. But, he walks through it all.

At 1:05:ish he calls MSTR a “levered” Bitcoin play.

And goes over a few examples MSTY and MSTX + options which are additional ways of levering MSTR (a Bitcoin derivative effectively). So these are effectively two and three derivatives of spot. That’s a lot of leverage and a lot of ways to break - see GBTC; the arb and premium discount issues.

Putting it altogether brings some of the points we went back and forth on, to light.

Additionally, it exposes the reasoning why (IMO) MSTR trades at a premium to NAV. The MSTX and degenerate TradFi options/leverage is not all that dissimilar to the GBTC arb trade that eventually broke once the NAV got out of whack and the trade became crowded. When interest waned and big players stepped aside or actually realized the risk, the trap door opens and exponentially declined as a bear unfolded.

It’s totally fine and happens in securities but people don’t always understand the risk and think NgU until they are “blindsided”.

The underlying fundamental message of the role of institutions in nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m‘s last two pods are very 1st Turning.

Scarce Assets E021: Michael Saylor – Pursuit of Bitcoin Yield youtu.be/Qj6x0mcENYo

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3 Skills That Will Forever ChAnGe Your Life:

1. Learning

2. Efficiency

3. Saving

Mastering these three as early as possible will make the biggest difference in your life, regardless of where you start.

“The price you buy #bitcoin is not as important as how long you hold #btc.” - Albert Einstein 😜

Replying to Avatar ODELL

Name that 1980s logo…

…Thundercats

You know it when you see it.