“Move some Bitcoin around”?
Ugggh… *sell and *go with/match
Maybe I’m wrong… a negative purchase -700 would mean a sale and it would go match the podcast reference. Both sources previously provided.
Saylor himself said multiple times over the last few years MSTR was a dead company. It wasn’t innovating and he was trying to figure out how not to have to wind it down or just let it die a slow death or sell.
His earliest mentions were when framing around what he noticed with FANG and he saw it again with Bitcoin so he bought it as a means to save the company… I.e. “dead in the water”.
I don’t disagree. However, Saylor himself said they were close this last bear and had to move some Bitcoin around. Additionally, you can see a 700 BTC sell around that time (12/22/22). Just putting 2 and 2 together.
Borrowing to buy (converts is still a form of leverage). I’m not 💩 it. Just pointing out it still takes planning.
See GBTC, IMO. As potential risk associated based on other players impacting price of locked up bitcoin.
Agree. I noticed where in Dec 2022 at the bottom he had to sell 700 BTC. I assume there was effectively a margin call due to drawdown. He’s doing alluded to this in the Saif podcast too.
He’s doing it well but people don’t fully understand the inherent margin risk even when you do it well.
Seems to me that at this point $MSTR is a lot like GBTC was when that arb was a “no brainer”. All the HFs and funds that abused the arb ended up blowing it up due to their leverage. This could easily be the case, seen again, after the fact??
Based on estimates there is about $78 of bitcoin per MSTR share. The company stock (pre-#bitcoin) typically traded at $10-$16 a share (for pretty much 20 years).
Adding $78 of BTC would get you to about $94-95 bucks per share. Also, Saylor has been pretty vocal that MSTR pre-Bitcoin was dead in the water. So, it would seem investors probably shouldn’t assign much value to the company then, right?
Granted, I do think his play is to turn it into a bitcoin bank, lend off the stack and convert the software to BTC software and analytics, so there could eventually be hidden value there.
Post 2017/18, #bitcoin is not as uncorrelated as it’s portrayed.
However, when it is the dislocations are usually useful to watch.
Bitcoin vs the S&P over the last 6 months or so.
Hoarding sound money assets in chaotic times is how new financial systems are built. #bitcoin
https://open.substack.com/pub/kanemcgukin/p/the-new-strongmen
It funds a lot of bad things and keeps a lot of bad situations going. Turning it off would bring our sanity level back down to earth.
However, most people prefer not to look at root problems and instead obsess over easily concocted excuses.
Know someone running missions. True story. Crazy.
🤔 which has become more important?
The sport of the process or the actual process?
Since Jan 2018 (almost most 7 full market years) #GOLD has performed almost exactly the same as $SPY.
$GOLD: 105%
#SPY: 108%
That’s what I’m saying. Maybe I’m misunderstanding you here.
Let’s play devil’s advocate for a second:
In the long run, what if the emergence of #Bitcoin is a means to trade liquidity like TradFi trades the #VIX??
https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-a-liquidity-proxy
Sound familiar?
Big Debt Crisis by Ray Dalio.
