🎙️EP 60 of Navigating Bitcoin’s Noise

What if the price of Bitcoin didn’t come from an exchange?

I sit down with Simple Steve - the artist of Bitcoin information - to discuss the true free market price of Bitcoin in graphical form, straight from the node.

📺: https://youtu.be/Vkj7RubtFdU

🎙️: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/navigating-bitcoins-noise/id1583424361

Chart prices set the table for narratives and stories to be sold to market participants.

Humans are wired for storytelling. It’s in our nature and why markets have worked this way for thousands of years.

The Art of The Sale is inseparable from The Art of The Story.

If it looks exactly the same, and feels

exactly the same, all I have to do is say we have feature XYZ the other lemmings app doesn’t have and the herd will flow over for a year or three 😂.

Fiat:

“What’s the key lesson about money?”

Bitcoin:

“It’s tough to shift beliefs when people don’t question how it works.”

Probably not enough people really care about this. Or, an even greater issue… they don’t see it.

nostr:nprofile1qqsgjeljjrx8wj0a853jldc3pszakar2x87wqc66amzwzydd307gzrgpzamhxue69uhkummnw3ezuendwsh8w6t69e3xj7spz3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wcuxt9m2 is dead right.

Anointing kings can lead to slippery slopes when they bend a knee.

The end caps are missing so it keeps that line and paint build up from happening as the paint pushes out to the edges.

Just a random thought: Hollywood and the music industry.

They are the show… One giant psyop.

So you aren’t paying attention and ignore the truth.

💯

Time is the most scarce monetizable asset we all have.

Money, in whatever form, is merely the medium of exchange we buy or spend time.

Chasing money = spending time.

Creating flexibility = buying time.

Either way, time is the only finite resource available to us.

Since January 2024 - Bitcoin has paired up with DXY.

It has traded directionally with it. Breaking the trend of trading opposite.

i.e. we are seeing “yield curve control” but across Global Macro Asset classes not just the bond curve.

🚨UPDATE🚨

One of my favorite things to do in 2007 was to correlate current prices/days to past major drawdowns in assets.

We’re currently most correlated to S&P 👉1937 (88%), 1973 (81%), & 1976 (78%).

It’s important bc previously, we experienced 4️⃣ historic market events across several different decades.

1913 - paradigm shift / Central Banks

1920s-40s - geopolitical issues & wars

1944 - new world monetary order

1960/70s - inflation/deflation

Life altering times but were spread across six decades.

💡 Today, the data confirms my view that what is “different” is that we are experiencing all 4️⃣ events in one decade, or in the past 5 years.

Capital stacks, balance sheets, and allocation of capital are what drive economic systems.

Hoarded stacks of capital create piles of debt that eventually become worthless, clogging the pipes.

Until… a new capital stock is created and re-deployed, unclogging the plumbing and moving liquidity once again.

https://open.substack.com/pub/kanemcgukin/p/the-forgotten-foundation-why-capital

Bonds with #bitcoin kickers (included in payouts at maturity) is the ultimate inflation hedge.

This would be the 21st Century version of TIPs - Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or in this case — BIPs — Bitcoin Inflation Protected Securities.

Thoughts nostr:nprofile1qqstn8du5qvy5vkw2kgyevn8kghyxjpre9l5rrekmt6a9hlsm4a4cfcprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvqy28wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hsfeazpd?

nostr:nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpzfmhxue69uhk7enxvd5xz6tw9ec82cspz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfdueap23p add this to your Macro bingo card. Put it on the free space.

https://x.com/kanemcgukin/status/1913625735664644514?s=46&t=BCZ86Q6VE35kiDHSK1Vf6w

This is actually a phenomenal chart that tells the history of rates AND the challenges we’ve created in banking.

💡High rates = functioning economy

🚫Low rates = broken economy

Here’s how Central Banks and Derivatives distorted this.

For about 100yrs rates easily stayed between 6-9% and never really went below 6 (1790 to 1880).

Charts below.

🏦💸Enter Central Banking Era and things drastically changed.

The battle to establish the Central Banking Era created an environment where rates RARELY went above 6% — for the next 100yrs.

This was abnormal relative to the past.

In this low rate period we had more bank failures and wars.

The 1960s/80s brought the Derivatives Era.

As financialization and debt became the norm, rates became bi-polar.

For the next 55 yrs (charts stops 2010). Rates were erratic (too high and too low), creating more tension, more defaults and liquidity issues.

Outside of manipulation and intervention, high rates provide stability and growth (6-9%).

They cause piles of capital to move from unproductive to productive use cases — where the profit is higher than the hurdle *rate*.

Low allow unproductive use case to survive on low rates.

Current drawdown is 85% correlated to 1937 and 85% to 1973.

1913 - paradigm shift / Central Banks

1920s-40s - geopolitical issues & wars

1944 - new world monetary order

1960/70s - inflation/deflation

Those were four historical and life altering times but were spread across six decades.

We are experiencing all 4️⃣ in one decade, or the past 5 years.

Everyone is watching the FED and their TGA account. But what is the divergence in SDRs telling us?

Is this the real liquidity signal?

In a squeeze the stuff no one talks about moves first. 🥇

Is this the broken model #bitcoin/stablecoins replace?

https://kanemcgukin.substack.com/p/the-primary-problem-in-the-global

Ht: @Sina21st

Bitcoin isn’t just another asset — it’s a system following the power law curve.

In this episode w/ @Sina_21st / @21st_capital we explore:

⚡️ Bitcoin as a black hole for monetary energy

⚡️ How power laws explain growth & collapse

⚡️ Evolution beyond “store of value”

👂🎙️ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/navigating-bitcoins-noise/id1583424361?i=1000703219837

At the 9 min mark Luke also makes another critical point about the Treasury arb trade

👉 https://open.substack.com/pub/kanemcgukin/p/is-ltcm-replaying-itself-out-in-us

👉 Full video from Luke: https://youtu.be/GFswO3hEZpU?feature=shared

Out of context but… why do so few still not see the problem here and the correlation to the US

“Fundamentally, the UK was, it’s an island who’s industrial base had been largely hollowed out, with a big financial system, highly financialized, highly interest rate sensitive; as a share of GDP. … You can kind of do the math, you can kind of see the options and constraints the Bank of England had” - @LukeGromen

Full Luke video below.

Base case for me in 2020-2021 👇