I’ve been in full-recluse mode lately, trying to wrap my head around the massive monetary and financial shift that is currently underway… along with its geopolitical ramifications.

The only other macro person I hear talking about it is Darius Dale, so I recently resubscribed to his research service. *Strong recommend*

In short, it’s becoming increasingly clear to me that we (may) have just entered a period of long Global Hard Assets vs short US-based financialized/fiat assets, similar to the 1930s, 1970s, and 2000s.

The investment implications are profound and, likely, long-lasting.

🍿

#FourthTurning

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Darius has been spot on for a while now.

He’s one of the good ones, for sure.

BlackRock was clear this was going to happen. No one wanted to listen. They want tokenized stock exchanges using crypto and AI.

Would you consider stocks to be a hard asset (the business) or a financial asset (the certificate) ?

Stonks are by definition a financial asset, because they represent a claim on the cash flows of an entity that partakes in the real economy (the business). The business is also financial, the assets of the business (real estate, intellectual property, etc.) would be the hard asset.

Financial

How about Bitcoin stocks? 😁

Woah. That’s significant.

Stay humble and stack zaps ⚡️

I like Darius. Although he recommends 0% allocation to bitcoin right now in his KISS portfolio

Who is Darius Dale? And where do you subscribe to him?

He’s the founder of 42Macro.

Been checking your feed daily... and when I see your you've posted it makes my day 😁

Thanks Doc, hope you're well 🫡

🤝

When you consider who Scott Bessebt is and his history it's hard not think this is a new Bretten Woods of sorts.

I am certain these men, these sharks Lutnick, Bessent, Trump, haven't laid all their cards face up on the table. Not a chance.

They are trying break the PBOC and solidify the dollar as the global currency and it seems as though there may be some effort to back it with hard assets.

I have never felt more comfortable in my BTC position and less comfortable in stocks than now. Thankfully BTC is 50% of my liquidity networth.

You don't feel these shenanigans have weakened the dollar as the global reserve currency?

Dr hermit crab now?

Please consider doing a pod/youtube deep dive to help others understand the reasoning behind this - I would love to watch/listen - thanks in advance

Sorry

I only get excited about lines drawn on charts 📈

You’ll have to do better than that. lol

You’re not alone, Jeff. I’ve been deep in the same rabbit hole: global fragmentation, hard assets, and the death rattle of fiat.

The historical parallels you pointed out are uncanny. I’d add that we’re also seeing central banks quietly rotate into commodities and gold, just like pre-Bretton Woods collapse.

Darius has been fire lately. Curious what in his recent work really clicked for you?

PS: Would love to reconnect on this. Your insights have been missed.

Gold has been growing non stop since the 2000s. It was going down since 1980.

I think gold will explode and hit a top in the next 5 years or so, especially as/when the real estate market turns. Which we might be close.

And then eventually gold is also shown to be paper/manipulatable (I think this will be a faster collapse than real estate because gold is more manipulatable/obscure than real estate, it'll be faster for people to understand that it's not the best) and then Bitcoin starts taking more capital (because it is the best, as we know :))

I think eventually all roads lead to Bitcoin but most people only learn the hard way so it takes a bit of time.

I'm going to assume, maybe wrongly, that this means buy hard assets like gold and bitcoin. But what does it mean for financial assets like stocks, and in particular financial assets that buy hard assets (mstr)? Cheers Jeff

He's saying stocks will underperform vs Gold Bitcoin and (hard maybe) real estate?

What's his position on Bitcoin?

Darius has been solid. Luke Gromen is saying the same.

Have you come across Abaxx yet? I think it is currently one of the most interesting companies on the planet and plugs in with this shift to an increased focus on hard asset backed (collateral) for global trade. Would love to hear your thoughts on them (if you can’t openly discuss public companies I understand).

I wish the investment community saw BTC as a hard asset. They seem to think it’s a tech stock.

what are your current thoughts on bitcoin vs gold?

Everything that’s good for gold is 10x to 100x good for bitcoin.

Isn’t that assuming the market broadly views bitcoin as a hard money instead of a risk on equity?

The suddenly phase may be 10 years away and we could trade with the Qs until then

Yes.

Bitcoin has entered the global Store of Value phase.

US magacap technology stocks will slowly lose their SoV status (which they’ve enjoyed since 2009) over the coming 10-15 years.

👍🏼

I agree but..

That bearish? 😅

Seems like the market doesn't agree, at least for now

I’m talking about over the next 10-15 years.

Come on …

Coincido

Darius in awesome

I’d also add Luke Gromen to the top of that list.

are we ever going to get out of this chopsolidation?

Yes. Keep stacking.

Shill

Shout-out to nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytndv9kxjm3wdahxcqg5waehxw309ahx7um5wfekzarkvyhxuet5qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncdhu7e3 also, who has been ahead of most (including me) on these important monetary and geopolitical paradigm shifts.

I neglected to mention her fantastic work and foresight in my original post (below).

As I've stated several times in the past, her newsletter probably provides the highest signal-to-price ratio in the financial industry. **Strong recommend**

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpduedsvruqmd7fuq99zmszaaezct7kt3ke3p4p4lx45uxvs30uraqqsgarqzh7dl4eqt0g2g9e70kpsf7ay5mya4yg0kzsexksur5f2nc6q6r05n8

42 Macro

A relevant thread that summarizes my geopolitical and economic view into this massive change, which marks most likely the end of globalism, and the beginning of a multi polar world where regional powers rule.

It also begins a long economic war with China:

https://x.com/josephfounder/status/1907866543624802542

Are you saying gold and bitcoin with out saying gold and bitcion

Are Bitcoin and gold both global and hard?

I like how you explain things, but can you make a video explaining some of the recent takes of potential actions but also what those outcomes could look like? IE the fed addressing the SLR, basis trade, or lowering interest rates: at this point, is it possible to return to the highs anytime soon (to EOY)? Or are we at a point where the damage has been done, and the world is fleeing the USD and US markets to safe haven assets until further notice? Current events seem to suggest that we’re in a new chapter and one dovish announcement probably won’t be enough to right the ship. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Wen next podcast? Love to hear your thoughts.

Current drawdown is 85% correlated to 1937 and 85% to 1973.

1913 - paradigm shift / Central Banks

1920s-40s - geopolitical issues & wars

1944 - new world monetary order

1960/70s - inflation/deflation

Those were four historical and life altering times but were spread across six decades.

We are experiencing all 4️⃣ in one decade, or the past 5 years.