Listened yersterday to a podcast of yours with nostr:npub1mrmu3s5889zcaqcqwxejx8gtkp9rwna7fq0vqezk4x22rnpr2gmsmfeyr9 and now I am back to Nostr.

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqrdygqslmk2qfyu3au4ent00p06n5sus92rpxzh7s2c0ld4qk486qqsvd8spklnfp4zpj9pytn0n66lp662rugqjajs20rrnrma90mr65sqknrdw2

Following a reply I posted to this incredibly vulnerable masterpiece by nostr:nprofile1qyv8wumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyvhwumn8ghj7um9dejxjapwdehhxenvv9ex2tnrdaksqgqyey2a4mlw8qchlfe5g39vacus4qnflevppv3yre0xm56rm7lveyr9lldz , I decided 2025 is my "year of proof of work". I then had the idea, to prove to myself I am actually doing something different, I'll document said work right here on Nostr.

https://primal.net/e/note1y4msmfjd5p46rce7tnapg8me0uuphad5sklzkmjkx9fcjcgz60gq4xyfgu

After a difficult few years of fighting my own personal battles, 2024 marked my return to full time work. In ~6 months I've driven the best part of 30k miles. That's a lot of listening hours. I took this job because it means I get paid to listen to podcasts, audiobooks, Bloomberg Surveillance etc, and talk to people about the things I learn on such media. And yes, before you ask, anything I don't need for monthly expenses goes straight into bitcoin (or related investments in a tax-free equity vehicle (an ISA - it's a UK thing)).

---

So, here goes. My first #proofofworkdiary entry. First fiat mining day of the year. ~400 miles of listening time. Here's my key takeaways from today's audio consumption.

---

First up, Citrini (James) on Jack Farley's Monetary Matters

James's thematic investing has worked incredibly well over the last couple of years and Citrini Research has grown considerably as a result.

James's first investment idea is shorting homebuilders (02:16). I don't do shorts but to hear the thesis helps with my overall picture of where the US economy is going. In the 2 weeks it took to write the report, poor earnings have made this work sooner than anticipated. For James this is a sign that, if 1 earnings report can kill a trade, it wasn't a good trade idea as his positions are intended to last months/quarters/maybe years.

Second investment idea, "power integrated circuits", is follow on AI sectors, now that the mega caps have had their time in the sun. This doesn't mean short NVDA/TSMC etc, it means the asymmetric gains have most/all been seen and as such, these first movers no longer fit his investment strategy. James discusses other sectors that still have lots of life left in them for variations on the AI theme.

Trades 3 and 4 (and 2 to a degree) look at smid caps that have been unfairly beaten down/babies thrown out with the bath water. There are some very good companies, including some hated names such as Carvana, which have benefited from the excessive liquidity from the post-covid years. Some companies have used all this money that was thrown at them wisely to do significant capex, which is no longer possible to the same degree now money actually costs something again. Many names/ideas here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vvAZ_7c0yg

---

Next, Nick Gerli talks US housing market on Adam Taggart's Thoughtful Money

I'll keep this brief. FL, TX, CA are a shitshow. Housing has entered deflation and the data is a year old. Basically, the south and west are a disaster and he has charts to back this up. I wanted to include screenshots but it's late and I need to sleep. This is a big deal that the likes of Melody Wright and Danielle DeMartino Booth have been warning about for probably at least 2 years. It's now happening.

That said, the US property market, as with the overall economy, is "bifurcated". That's the word of 2024. Mid-west and north east are fine. Can't remember re mid-western states but certainly for the north east, overbearing regulations have driven developers to other, more regulatory friendly states. As a result, property in NY, NJ, CT etc is in high demand as development has been next to non existent.

On the other hand, southern and western states have seen massive development and inventory is now at a level where developers are offering some properties at essentially cost basis, along with subsidised mortgages, just to get them off the books. This is what Melody Wright has been saying will happen as she's driven through these states and could see an inventory overflow coming a mile off.

That's it. There's way more to this but for my purposes, it's enough to know that the H in Michael Kantrowitz's HOPE (Housing, new Orders, Profits, Employment) is finally starting to cave. This also fits with the 18.6 year property cycle (see this excellent article by my buddy Simon https://wordsbysimon.medium.com/the-impending-big-crash-words-by-simon-ab54825172a8).

---

Max Guise talks Block's Bitcoin mining ASIC on Will Foxley's The Mining Pod. Great to see more focus and resources being put into decentralising bitcoin mining hardware!

Erm nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyv8wumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3gamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7qg4waehxw309aex2mrp0yhx6mmnw3ezuur4vgq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qqsgydql3q4ka27d9wnlrmus4tvkrnc8ftc4h8h5fgyln54gl0a7dgsyrcvv9 , why isn't Max on Nostr?? Or is he? 🤔 Can't find him if he is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs6xX6kaF_c

---

Diary of a CEO discusses dopamine with an expert in the field. This is a great listen. Discussion covers dopamine vs addictive substances and a lot of related subjects and personal experiences. Over 2 hrs so lots of time to cover all sorts of things. Highly recommended, even if the background music is a bit distracting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6xbXOp7wDA

---

Steven Bartlett's (Diary of a CEO) "Top 7 Money Making Hacks For 2025 That Are PROVEN To Work!" - his words, not mine. I don't agree with all of it, and it turns out he's got a substantial position in ETH. Even so, his interviews on the whole are, in my opinion, worth listening to and some of these clips have some decent arguments.

---

And finally, when it's not possible to actually take in even more macro content, there's always time for some of this 😃

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_kiBBLKixnPzLimSH68nIS2dhl0FeHJ_A0

Following a reply I posted to this incredibly vulnerable masterpiece by nostr:nprofile1qyv8wumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyvhwumn8ghj7um9dejxjapwdehhxenvv9ex2tnrdaksqgqyey2a4mlw8qchlfe5g39vacus4qnflevppv3yre0xm56rm7lveyr9lldz , I decided 2025 is my "year of proof of work". I then had the idea, to prove to myself I am actually doing something different, I'll document said work right here on Nostr.

https://primal.net/e/note1y4msmfjd5p46rce7tnapg8me0uuphad5sklzkmjkx9fcjcgz60gq4xyfgu

After a difficult few years of fighting my own personal battles, 2024 marked my return to full time work. In ~6 months I've driven the best part of 30k miles. That's a lot of listening hours. I took this job because it means I get paid to listen to podcasts, audiobooks, Bloomberg Surveillance etc, and talk to people about the things I learn on such media. And yes, before you ask, anything I don't need for monthly expenses goes straight into bitcoin (or related investments in a tax-free equity vehicle (an ISA - it's a UK thing)).

---

So, here goes. My first #proofofworkdiary entry. First fiat mining day of the year. ~400 miles of listening time. Here's my key takeaways from today's audio consumption.

---

First up, Citrini (James) on Jack Farley's Monetary Matters

James's thematic investing has worked incredibly well over the last couple of years and Citrini Research has grown considerably as a result.

James's first investment idea is shorting homebuilders (02:16). I don't do shorts but to hear the thesis helps with my overall picture of where the US economy is going. In the 2 weeks it took to write the report, poor earnings have made this work sooner than anticipated. For James this is a sign that, if 1 earnings report can kill a trade, it wasn't a good trade idea as his positions are intended to last months/quarters/maybe years.

Second investment idea, "power integrated circuits", is follow on AI sectors, now that the mega caps have had their time in the sun. This doesn't mean short NVDA/TSMC etc, it means the asymmetric gains have most/all been seen and as such, these first movers no longer fit his investment strategy. James discusses other sectors that still have lots of life left in them for variations on the AI theme.

Trades 3 and 4 (and 2 to a degree) look at smid caps that have been unfairly beaten down/babies thrown out with the bath water. There are some very good companies, including some hated names such as Carvana, which have benefited from the excessive liquidity from the post-covid years. Some companies have used all this money that was thrown at them wisely to do significant capex, which is no longer possible to the same degree now money actually costs something again. Many names/ideas here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vvAZ_7c0yg

---

Next, Nick Gerli talks US housing market on Adam Taggart's Thoughtful Money

I'll keep this brief. FL, TX, CA are a shitshow. Housing has entered deflation and the data is a year old. Basically, the south and west are a disaster and he has charts to back this up. I wanted to include screenshots but it's late and I need to sleep. This is a big deal that the likes of Melody Wright and Danielle DeMartino Booth have been warning about for probably at least 2 years. It's now happening.

That said, the US property market, as with the overall economy, is "bifurcated". That's the word of 2024. Mid-west and north east are fine. Can't remember re mid-western states but certainly for the north east, overbearing regulations have driven developers to other, more regulatory friendly states. As a result, property in NY, NJ, CT etc is in high demand as development has been next to non existent.

On the other hand, southern and western states have seen massive development and inventory is now at a level where developers are offering some properties at essentially cost basis, along with subsidised mortgages, just to get them off the books. This is what Melody Wright has been saying will happen as she's driven through these states and could see an inventory overflow coming a mile off.

That's it. There's way more to this but for my purposes, it's enough to know that the H in Michael Kantrowitz's HOPE (Housing, new Orders, Profits, Employment) is finally starting to cave. This also fits with the 18.6 year property cycle (see this excellent article by my buddy Simon https://wordsbysimon.medium.com/the-impending-big-crash-words-by-simon-ab54825172a8).

---

Max Guise talks Block's Bitcoin mining ASIC on Will Foxley's The Mining Pod. Great to see more focus and resources being put into decentralising bitcoin mining hardware!

Erm nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyv8wumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3gamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7qg4waehxw309aex2mrp0yhx6mmnw3ezuur4vgq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qqsgydql3q4ka27d9wnlrmus4tvkrnc8ftc4h8h5fgyln54gl0a7dgsyrcvv9 , why isn't Max on Nostr?? Or is he? 🤔 Can't find him if he is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs6xX6kaF_c

---

Diary of a CEO discusses dopamine with an expert in the field. This is a great listen. Discussion covers dopamine vs addictive substances and a lot of related subjects and personal experiences. Over 2 hrs so lots of time to cover all sorts of things. Highly recommended, even if the background music is a bit distracting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6xbXOp7wDA

---

Steven Bartlett's (Diary of a CEO) "Top 7 Money Making Hacks For 2025 That Are PROVEN To Work!" - his words, not mine. I don't agree with all of it, and it turns out he's got a substantial position in ETH. Even so, his interviews on the whole are, in my opinion, worth listening to and some of these clips have some decent arguments.

---

And finally, when it's not possible to actually take in even more macro content, there's always time for some of this 😃

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_kiBBLKixnPzLimSH68nIS2dhl0FeHJ_A0

https://video.nostr.build/f09703b0eb907dc1f80846614b52258b7ad2cbe93b37059a625346b43dc50b3e.mp4

I must say that this recent rip with nostr:nprofile1qyv8wumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyvhwumn8ghj7um9dejxjapwdehhxenvv9ex2tnrdaksqgqyey2a4mlw8qchlfe5g39vacus4qnflevppv3yre0xm56rm7lveyr9lldz , nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqtxwaehxw309anxjmr5v4ezumn0wd68ytnhd9hx2tmwwp6kyvtjw3k8zcmp8pervct409shwdtwx45rxmp4xseryerdx3ehy7f4v3axvet9xsmrjdnxw9jnsuekw9nh2ertwvmkg6n5veen7cnjdaskgcmpwd6r6arjw4jszrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqzyrhwden5te0dehhxarj9emkjmn9qyf8wumn8ghj7mmxve3ksctfdch8qatzqyvhwumn8ghj7ur4wfshv6tyvyhxummnw3ezumrpdejqz9rhwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjmcprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvqqsp4lsvwn3aw7zwh2f6tcl6249xa6cpj2x3yuu6azaysvncdqywxmg5rq7fq , and nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7cnjvghxjme0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qydhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytn0wfskuem9wp5kcmpwv3jhvtcprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujucm4wfex2mn59en8j6f0qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qgewaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8xmn0wf6zuum0vd5kzmp0qqsd0uazmzmhwseeym3rjhf3txyjapreapc6sq8yq8cy07cg45tlx2cvj3xfg was actually quite good.

They even knocked some #macro and #tradfi concepts out of the park.

Strong recommend that you give it a listen, then zap nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7cnjvghxjme0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qydhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytn0wfskuem9wp5kcmpwv3jhvtcprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujucm4wfex2mn59en8j6f0qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qgewaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8xmn0wf6zuum0vd5kzmp0qqsd0uazmzmhwseeym3rjhf3txyjapreapc6sq8yq8cy07cg45tlx2cvj3xfg for his ongoing efforts with the podcast.

Cheers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tijL0iD5GI