令人惊讶的是，美国内布拉斯加州10月份的平均年度房屋保险费(30万美元保额)最高，为5,655美元，其次是佛罗里达州，为5,527美元。对内布拉斯加州发现的风险感到好奇。与沿海地区不同，内布拉斯加州没有禁止哄抬价格的法律。It’s surprising that Nebraska had the highest average annual home insurance premium (for $300k coverage) in October, at $5,655, with Florida following at $5,527. We’re curious about the risks identified in Nebraska. Unlike the coasts, Nebraska has no law against price gouging.

诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼，刚刚批评伊隆·马斯克，称他无知。他说：“伊隆·马斯克是在暗示大幅削减社会保障和医疗保险，还是他根本不知道，如果不影响最大的预算项目，就无法将联邦支出削减三分之一？我猜他真的那么无知。” Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize-winning economist, recently criticized Elon Musk, calling him ignorant. He stated, “Is Elon Musk implicitly proposing large cuts to Social Security and Medicare, or is he simply unaware that you can’t reduce federal spending by a third without affecting the largest budget items? My guess is that he truly is that ignorant.”

尽管今年的美股仍然很牛，但是比特币、白银、黄金在今年的表现都优于标普500指数。比特币涨63%，白银涨43%，黄金涨33%，标普500指数涨22%，纳斯达克100指数涨22%。过去三年，黄金上涨了53%，几乎是标准普尔500指数回报率的两倍。黄金会涨到3,000美元吗？Gold has risen 53% over the past three years, nearly double the S&P 500’s return. The so-called "barbarous relic" has performed remarkably over recent years. Is gold on its way to $3,000?

突发新闻：美国的找工作越来越难。截至10月19日当周，持续申请失业救济人数增至190万，为2021年11月以来的最高水平。两年来，失业救济金领取者增加了50万，使今年同期的申请数量比2018-2019年的水平高出19%。尽管随着飓风海伦的影响减弱，首次申请失业救济人数下降了1.5万人，至22.7万人，但四周平均值攀升至23.85万人，为7月以来的最高水平。

BREAKING: Job hunting is becoming tougher in the U.S.. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.9 million for the week ending October 19th—the highest since November 2021. Over two years, unemployment benefit recipients have increased by 500,000, putting claims 19% above 2018-2019 levels for this time of year. Despite a 15,000 drop in initial claims to 227,000 as Hurricane Helene's impact eased, the 4-week average climbed to 238,500, the highest since July.

英伟达(NVDA)股票规模有多大？NVDA的市值目前为3.5万亿美元，是仅次于苹果的全球第二大公司。该公司的市值现在超过了加拿大、英国、法国、德国和意大利的整个股市。如果NVDA的股票进入熊市会发生什么?How large has NVIDIA’s stock become? NVIDIA’s market capitalization now stands at $3.5 trillion, making it the second-largest company in the world after Apple. The firm is now bigger than the entire stock markets of Canada, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy. What would happen if NVIDIA’s stock entered a bear market?

德国经济衰退已近两年，DAX指数为何持续上涨？世界第三大经济体预计2024年第三季度将萎缩0.1%，进入“技术性衰退”。德国政府预计，该国GDP将连续第二年萎缩，这是21年来首次出现萎缩。Germany has been in a recession for nearly two years. Why does the DAX continue to rise? The world's third-largest economy is projected to contract by 0.1% in Q3 2024, which will lead to a 'technical recession.' The German government estimates that the country's GDP will shrink for the second consecutive year, marking the first time this has happened in 21 years.

美股已达互联网泡沫高峰以来的最高估值水平。这种情况令人担忧，因为信用卡债务创下历史新高，许多人尤其是加拿大人，都在努力负担抵押贷款和食品杂货。可能出什么问题？目前，标准普尔500指数成分股的平均交易价格，略低于其销售额的3倍。然而，也有像PLTR这样的股票，其交易价格是其年销售额的41倍，这令人震惊。

The U.S. stock market has reached its most overvalued level since the peak of the Dot Com Bubble. This situation is particularly concerning as credit card debt is hitting record highs, and many people, especially in Canada, are struggling to afford mortgages and groceries. What could possibly go wrong? Currently, the average S&P 500 stock trading at just under three times its sales. However, there are also stocks like $PLTR that are trading at an astonishing 41 times their total annual sales.

黄金可以说是对冲货币通胀最有效的工具。尽管相关性并不完美，但货币供应量的增加似乎是推动黄金大幅上涨的重要因素。虽然黄金确实是一种强大的对冲工具，但我们认为，包含多种资产的多元化投资组合才是最佳方法。Gold is arguably the most effective hedge against monetary inflation. Although the correlation is not perfect, the increase in the money supply appears to be a significant factor driving gold's impressive rally. While gold is indeed a strong hedge, I believe that a well-diversified portfolio containing a mix of assets is the best approach.

一直持有石油多头头寸的沃伦·巴菲特，这次似乎押错了宝。油价是否反映了全球经济衰退？本周油价下跌8%，创下2023年10月以来的最大单周跌幅。目前，油价自4月以来已下跌20%以上，并再次跌破每桶70美元。此次下跌是由全球石油需求下降(尤其是中国)推动的。这些事态发展引发了人们对油价可持续性的质疑，以及对像巴菲特这样在该领域投入巨资的投资者的影响。

Warren Buffett, who has taken a long position on oil, appears to have made an incorrect bet this time. Is oil pricing reflecting a global recession? Oil prices fell by 8% this week, marking the largest weekly decline since October 2023. Currently, oil is down over 20% since April and is trading below $70 per barrel once again. This decline has been driven by decreasing global oil demand, particularly in China.

美股投资者，需要为未来一周做好准备。特斯拉(TSLA)的收益，已经从像圣诞节那样令人兴奋的事情，转变为像感恩节那样令人担忧的事情。以下是10月21日至10月25日，即将报告的部分公司的季度收入和每股收益增长预期：

🔹中值收入增长率 =同比增长5%

🔹每股收益中值增长率 =同比增长3%

Get ready for the week ahead! TSLA earnings have shifted from being something to look forward to, like Christmas, to a source of concern, akin to Thanksgiving. Here are the quarterly revenue and EPS growth expectations for selected companies reporting from October 21 to October 25:

🔹 Median Revenue Growth: +5% y/y

🔹 Median EPS Growth: +3% y/y

信用卡业务为何蓬勃发展？信用卡债务正在迅速累积：拖欠率刚刚达到3.25%，为2011年12月以来的最高水平。与此同时，全球最大的信用卡公司Visa的价值自那时以来增长了十倍。普通民众的债务和华尔街的收益之间的差距比以往任何时候都要大。

Why is the credit card business thriving? Credit card debt is accumulating rapidly: the delinquency rate has just reached 3.25%, the highest level since December 2011. At the same time, Visa, the world's largest credit card company, has seen its value increase tenfold since then. The gap between Main Street's debt and Wall Street's gains is wider than ever.

这是另一个视角：2011年，Visa的收入为95 亿美元。到2024年，收入将飙升至350亿美元。承担和偿还债务的人数量明显增加。如果你是Visa，你愿意看到90亿美元收入的拖欠率为2%，还是350亿美元的拖欠率为3.25%？我们会选择350亿美元。

Here's another perspective: in 2011, Visa's revenue was $9.5 billion. By 2024, revenue has surged to $35 billion. A significantly larger number of people are taking on and repaying their debt. If you were Visa, would you prefer a 2% delinquency rate on $9 billion in revenue or a 3.25% delinquency rate on $35 billion? I would choose the $35 billion.

全球科技三巨头市值竞赛：英伟达(NVDA)市值创下3.41万亿美元的新高。过去一个月，NVDA市值增加了8000亿美元，再次成为全球第二大公司。NVDA现在距离超越苹果(AAPL)，成为全球最大公司仅差1000亿美元。与此同时，该公司股价今年迄今，已上涨了惊人的190%，使 NVDA成为标普500指数中，表现第二好的公司。

Nvidia $NVDA has officially hit a new record market cap of $3.41 trillion. Over the last month, NVDA has added $800 billion in market value and has once again become the world’s second-largest company. NVDA is now just about $100 billion away from exceeding Apple $AAPL and becoming the largest firm on the planet. Meanwhile, the company's shares have rallied a remarkable 190% year-to-date, making NVDA the second-best performer in the S&P 500.

去年年底，美国购房者需要用于支付抵押贷款的总收入比例(白色)上升至33%，为1985年以来的最高水平。首付与月收入之比(橙色)仍接近历史区间的上限。尽管抵押贷款负担有所减轻，但住房负担能力仍然紧张。Late last year, the share of gross income that U.S. homebuyers needed to devote to mortgage payments (in white) rose to 33%, the highest level since 1985. The down payment to monthly income ratio (in orange) is still near the upper end of the historical range. Housing affordability remains tight, despite some relief in the mortgage burden.

章泽天加入光明会？章泽天声明，出席清华大学校友艺术展时所佩戴之胸针，仅是为配合艺术展及整体服装风格的搭配，其来源、设计等均与任何组织无关，她也没有加入“光明会”。为此，刘强东章泽天夫妇，已向公安机关报案。刘强东与前妻龚小京，有一个儿子，京东的名字由来，就是因为她。如今，刘强东的初恋女友龚小京，担任京东集团战略副总裁。 https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1846423657444528132/vid/avc1/886x518/QUGuHl7H0AQe7mbf.mp4?tag=16

IMF称，今年全球公共债务预计将超过100万亿美元，该组织警告称，“债务前景面临的风险严重上行”，并且“有充分的理由相信未来的债务水平，可能会高于100万亿美元”，正如其财政监测报告中所述。这是股市今天和每天飙升的另一个原因！ Global public debt is projected to exceed $100 trillion this year, according to the IMF. The organization warns that “risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside” and there are “good reasons to believe that future debt levels could be higher than currently projected,” as stated in its Fiscal Monitor report. This serves as yet another reason for stocks to surge higher today and every day!

全球变暖，可能是自然的周期现象，历史记录了曾经发生过。中世纪变暖期，开始于公元700年；现代全球变暖，开始于公元1700年。变暖是否与CO2有关？全球范围争论很大。几十亿年的演化进程，地球围绕太阳转，太阳围绕银河系银心一圈2亿年，且是穿越银盘的上下螺旋运动。地质史上有过多次温暖期和冰川期，地球温度的起落，大部分是地球外来的因素。看来，人类太高估自己了。在超级财经的ESG评分模型中，我们将减少环境(E)的权重，增加社会责任(S)的权重。

美国通胀反弹？美国食品通胀已经卷土重来。9月食品价格环比上涨0.4%，创2023年2月以来最大涨幅。六大杂货店食品类别中有五种价格上涨，鸡蛋价格涨幅高达8.4%。过去四年，美国食品价格暴涨22.5%。Is U.S. inflation returning? U.S. food inflation is back. Food prices rose by 0.4% month-over-month in September, marking the largest increase since February 2023. Five out of the six major grocery store food group prices increased, with egg prices surging by as much as 8.4%. Over the past four years, U.S. food prices have skyrocketed by 22.5%.

突发：美联储资产负债表，刚在9月份减少了660亿美元，降至7.05万亿美元，为2020年9月以来的最低水平。这是否意味着，美联储正在向市场抛售股票和债券，尤其是当某些资产处于历史高位时？美联储并没有抛售股票，因为它一开始就没有购买任何股票。相反，它正在缩小资产负债表的规模，这涉及每月以指定利率，出售其在COVID期间购买的债券。

BREAKING: The Fed’s balance sheet decreased by $66 billion in September, bringing it down to $7.05 trillion, the lowest level since September 2020. Does this imply that the Fed is dumping stocks and bonds on the market, especially since some assets are at all-time highs? The Fed is not dumping stocks, as it did not purchase any in the first place. Instead, it is reducing the size of its balance sheet, which involves selling bonds that it acquired during the COVID period at a specified rate each month.

南希·佩洛西的美股持股总额，今天再次创下历史新高。今年她在股市上赚了大约2300万美元。她应该考虑写交易书籍。政府官员在股市上投资如此之多，以至于政府不可能在股市稍微下跌时不干预。Nancy Pelosi's combined holdings are once again trading at new all-time highs today. She has now made roughly $23 million in the stock market this year. She should consider writing trading books. Government officials are so invested in the stock market that there is no way the government won’t intervene at the slightest dip!

特斯拉发布会。Robotaxi没有方向盘，没有踏板，没有后视镜。特斯拉的FSD可以安全地应对遇到的任何奇怪情况，无论这种情况多么罕见。把汽车变成电梯一样方便，特斯拉能彻底代替网约车吗？感觉汽车市场要引发新一轮的大地震？马斯克还押注Optimus机器人计划，目标占据人形机器人市场10%份额，预计以约1万美元价格制造，2万美元出售，期待获得万亿利润。 https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1844586237015056384/vid/avc1/886x484/EzbRqW5mgpLx_EQf.mp4?tag=16