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Joe Resident
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Working on a gardening robot called Wilbur; we need to give the power of AI to individuals or the next 30 years could be really ugly

There is another (orthogonal) way: enable humans to reap the benefits of AI directly, and individually:

If everyone has access to robotics and AI, those robots can labor for the profit of each individual. This gives individuals the means of production.

For example, I'm working a gardening robot right now. Imagine 20 technologies like that, where each is accessible to someone with a normal income. Suddenly everyone is producing goods and services without a job, without laboring themselves except to play the 'manager' role for his robots, ie deciding which robot(s) to get and which good(s) to produce.

Obviously this doesn't cover all goods, eg a chip fab like TSMC, etc. But it feels like a future where most individuals remain economic agents instead of passive UBI recipients.

And of course all goods and services enjoy deflationary pricing because robots are doing everything for pennies

Replying to Avatar corndalorian

Sorry man, that sucks

Very interesting biohacker solution (maybe in a store near you in 15 years): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J3FcbFqSoQY

This is the core insight that leads me to feel that currently, there's about a 40‰ chance of human-level AI within 7 years

(meaning there is no cognitive task it's worse than humans at. It's already superhuman at many tasks)

In my mind, the fastest it could happen is about 10 months, but it would probably be too expensive to run for most things. Would need another 2 years after that for the cost to be reasonable for everyday tasks

I think I like the concept of many algos though. Then it's impossible to cater to all of them simultaneously, and so creators, as well as audience, get to be more intentional about which algos they respectively choose to cater to (game) and subscribe to.

Each algo will have a different vibe, a different value system encoded in what it surfaces, and will create a different community over time. I think it means that nostr can simultaneously have the vibe that every popular social media platform has today, and many more. And you get to choose where you hang out

The continued progress of #AI capabilities means that

Some things will get LESS valuable:

-human #labor (because AI can do it cheaper)

Some things will get MORE valuable:

-#capital (because it can buy AI compute, which can create anything)

-scarce resources like #land, water rights, #mining rights (because AI can't create more)

-'path-dependent' resources like reputation, trust networks, and audience

Now is the time to learn how to grow your capital, acquire scarce resources, or build a network, because your labor might have an expiration date

Some of these seem valid, but some are just projecting a very specific worldview as the only correct one

I think this is true under certain conditions. But the societal game theory gets complex, still trying to figure out exactly the conditions under which being driven by vengeance and pausing to forgive are respectively right.

Got all my phone notes moved to Obsidian this morning.

Excited to find a good local #LLM plugin to help me organize, question, distil, and expand my ideas.