#BitcoinNotWar #Bitcoin #BTC
#BitcoinNotWar
Amended #Bitcoin mantra:
Don’t be a jerk
Stay humble
Stack sats
Carry on!
Spending a bit more time on #Nostr and just followed about 200 new accounts (or new to me). It’s a small act, but hopefully following people is kind of like paying it forward and it’s helps accelerate the network effect of this amazing platform. ✊🧡
THE OTHER 4-YEAR BITCOIN CYCLES?
There is already a significant amount of analysis and discussion of the 4-year cycle associated with the supply schedule of #BTC baked into the #Bitcoin software code.
This is the reduction in new supply of BTC (the block subsidy) by 50% every 210,000 mined blocks (Fig. 1), what is referred to as the Bitcoin "halving". A new halving occurs roughly every 4 years (ie, 210,000 new BTC blocks are mined roughly every four years) and these will continue until the final halving at some point in the year 2140.
This diminishing supply of new BTC into the market, coupled with Bitcoin's fixed total supply (only 21 million BTC will ever exist) produce a supply/demand phenomenon which drives the price of BTC up over time relative to all other currencies. This is why the price of BTC compared to the CAD, USD, Euro and other currencies is always "up and to the right" over longer time frames (Fig. 2).
With the next Bitcoin halving just around the corner (est. April 19, 2024) there is a fresh wave of focus on the halving phenomenon and what the next reduction of BTC supply per block (from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block) will bring.
The other side to this supply/demand equation is, of course, demand. The "up and to the right" dynamic requires demand to remain constant or increase relative to supply. The extent to which demand remains equal or grows over time, the price of BTC relative to other currencies will increase. That is a very simple description, of course, and there is further nuance. Nevertheless, this is the basic interplay between supply and demand.
So what about demand? Well, it's pretty clear from a scan of the global environment and the recent upward tick of BTC relative to all currencies around the world that demand continues to increase. Key features of this include the growing adoption of BTC in countries around the world where local currencies are experiencing rapid devaluation, as well as the ongoing introduction of new BTC purchasing mechanisms such as spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), most recently in the United States.
It dawned on me recently that the demand side of the equation may, in fact, have its own 4-year cycles, one "sociological" and another "individual/psychological".
The first has to do with the increased visibility and perceived credibility of Bitcoin as its price relative to other currencies continues to increase over time, and the second refers to the time it takes for individuals to undertake education about Bitcoin. These warrant further consideration.
As anyone who has become convinced of Bitcoin's value and importance will tell you, the educational journey is multi-faceted and ongoing. It's why we colloquially refer to it as going down the Bitcoin "rabbit hole".
The more you learn, the more you realize there is yet to learn. Each step down the rabbit hole reveals new steps to be taken...from learning about how the Bitcoin protocol functions, to learning about what money actually is, to learning about how global debt and financial markets operate, to learning about how energy markets operate, and so on.
The seemingly never-ending Bitcoin rabbit hole is why individuals and groups from such a vast diversity of backgrounds have been drawn to Bitcoin and why it is gradually (though not quickly enough) working its way into academic circles where, ostensibly, people have the time and mandate to study, study, study.
A great example of this is reflected in the forthcoming "Resistance Money: A Philosophical Case for Bitcoin" by philosophy professors @resistancemoney @rettlerb @craigwarmke. It's also why @SatoshiEducate was established and why student groups like @BTCStudents @CornellBitcoin are sprouting up in the same way that local Bitcoin circular economies have in recent years. We're just at the outset of this new wave of academic interest and adoption.
We've also seen new stakeholders and market mechanisms come into play over the past couple of years -- institutional adopters of BTC and tools like the Bitcoin ETFs.
All of the above could be considered part of a sociological 4-year demand cycle for Bitcoin. As the number continue to go up, as this thing simply refuses to die, and friends tell friends (so to speak), Bitcoin evolves sociologically.
Add to this the phenomenon of individual learning about Bitcoin, a journey from initiate to adept. Put otherwise, the time it takes to earn one's belts (white belt, green belt, and so on). That analogy may sound odd or even corny to people who still haven't even peered into the Bitcoin rabbit hole, but anyone who has spent time down the rabbit hole will tell you that it's quite apt.
The learning journey requires curiosity, humility and, along the way, a willingness to challenge conventional wisdom on many fronts. It almost always includes mistakes and course correction. All of this takes time, and it may be useful to consider this in terms of cycles as well. Perhaps another 4-year demand cycle, the individual/psychological cycle.
Now, a 4-year learning cycle may sound daunting to someone who is just beginning to learn about Bitcoin. It could be off-putting. I would say the following in response. Most of us who have been on the journey (me since 2019) fumbled into it. We didn't know we were on a journey until we were far enough down the rabbit hole to look up and appreciate it for what it is. We were simply following our noses and that little part of us that says "hmm, that's interesting" or "no, that can't be true, let me take a closer look", fearing not to place one foot after the other, and to continually submit ideas to interrogation.
Four years into the educational journey myself, I can honestly say that while it has been dis-orienting at moments, it has also been renewing and richly rewarding. The latter far outweighs the former. These themes are reflected in a couple of other pieces I've written recently, if you're interested:
Going Further Upstream on SDoH. A Call to Action.
x.com/ScottAWolfe/st…
Sojourns in the digital future
twitter.com/ScottAWolfe/st…
If you're just beginning to learn about Bitcoin, I would recommend just keeping your eyes on the next step, all the while recognizing that this time next year you will look back and be positively amazed. The beautiful thing is that there are now so many resources available (books, podcasts, conference, meetups and more). I marvel at what it must have been like 6, 10, 14 years ago to peer into the Bitcoin rabbit hole and follow one's nose forward.
If you have read this far, what do you think about the idea of there being these other 4-year Bitcoin cycles, on the demand side? Does that resonate? Does a 4-year timeframe just seem arbitrary?
These sociological and individual/psychological timeframes wouldn't pair exactly with each other nor the 4-year supply cycle. However, they might provide valuable conceptual and analytical frameworks. What do ya think? Thanks for reading!
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Figures 1 and 2
I bought the #Bitcoin dip. I also bought the dippity dip. I wasn’t able to buy the dippity dippity dip though. However, since the fiat price of #BTC is back up above the dippity dip level, I don’t feel quite as sad.
IYKYK
Another half-baked reflection from time spent down the #Bitcoin rabbit hole. I have been preoccupied lately with the question of how we rescue and renew institutions and other social intermediaries from debasement, tribalization and capture.
We are in an epoch of social and political tribalization predicated on distorted signals and coding (in language), Big letter ideology/affiliation has replaced the actual political-philosophical underpinnings that gave rise to people grouping and organizing around them.
“Conservative/Liberal” have replaced “conservative/liberal”. “Progressive/progressive” has followed suit, although (ironically) progressivism was a reaction to the distortion and capture of liberalism manifest in the US Democratic Party.
These distortions have become entrenched via political parties which a similar role as sports franchises. They centralize, encapsulate and re-present to the public a wide range of values, beliefs and emotions with the goal of attracting and maintaining congregants.
The frenzy of tribal affiliation, channeled through political parties, is amplified by mass media which prey upon this theatre of competition. We are provided a steady diet of coded language & signals that perpetuate the sport. We then recycle these in civic engagements.
How do we retrieve ourselves from the gravitational pull of this destructive state of affairs. What in the prescription for action? I have a couple of thoughts, both imperfectly fashioned.
The first is for us to recognize the theatre for what it is and ourselves as unwitting actors. This means becoming conscious of our tribalization and the factors at play. It also means interrogating our tendency to falsely attribute intent to individuals on the “other team”.
8/ As I’ve said before, I believe that 80% of people can generally agree on 80% of issues. We are in an epoch where we are conditioning ourselves (perhaps conditioned) to believe that only 20% of people can agree on 80% of things.
The act of seeing across perceived difference and political affiliation, of exercising a spirit of generosity and willingness to dialogue, is one that can be undertaken personally. It doesn’t require a political or social movement. This is empowering.
Secondly, however, another potential remedy for the ills of our epoch is to remove political parties from our liberal democracies. Let us return to an era of elected political representation WITHOUT the affiliation of our elected representatives to a centralized/ing party.
This could (would?) incite greater discourse at a local level and place increased weight on civic education and engagement to achieve value, rather than our default to the centralized political packaging of party institutions. A re-de-centralization of democracy.
I welcome thoughts on the above. If you made it this far, thank you for considering my reflections.
TORONTO | Pay in #BTC
☕️ Capulus Coffee House
📍881 St Clair Ave West
Delicious food and beverages. Support businesses that accept #Bitcoin. nostr:npub1864jglrrhv6alguwql9pqtmd5296nww5dpcewapmmcazk8vq4mks0tt2tq nostr:npub1j46na8czzv909c6zr7charcr63zuxd2d7jw3jjfy9j33d72c0aksgxdffy
While you’re at it, please follow @BTCToronto_ and @BTCcoalition_ca. 🇨🇦
nostr:npub15m9yc697s82zzy652py0uddmpp5e9xl0920vg6lau9n39fnnzsys6mq643 That’s a great observation. I can only offer my perspective, so for what it’s worth: while coopting, centralizing, and corrupting by those who have outsized influence are forces worth fighting, the government’s explicit power to coerce is a much bigger threat. In my sense - and in only my sense - many progressives seem to want to use government power to satisfy their passions for justice, and believe that having a simple majority of a voting populace on their side somehow absolves them of the moral evil of coercion. However, I see coercion as the fundamentally dehumanizing social force.
Private charity is alive and well; I want to affirm my progressive friends’ senses of justice and work with them where I can to bring about better outcomes for people, but without resorting to control.
Hey Steve, it doesn’t show me what observation/post you’re referring to. I’m. Assuming the conservatives/progressives can agree on 80% of things post?
🚨Business accepting Bitcoin🚨
Hey #Toronto residents! New coffee shop accepting #Bitcoin on St Clair Ave West. Capsules Coffee House. Go show them some love and support! Let’s get this circular economy going!🚀
c/o nostr:npub1vtkvzfh9wfuujppyeq204tup0fm3f3fwuj2yvklqc3vrlh2a9dmqq3gjfc
So cool to have my new nostr:npub1t9zhrugnwhhm4msu7cp0ph00dydp9hhf5q2druu7tyd3lnekjces9tstxq NIP-05. Thanks for hooking me up, nostr:npub1826v365he5ty69lk3xgvzqrwy8587vdfrxnsz0k09khzustf8r7s6j7t95 nostr:npub1pfmh8z085zlwmwjtq6m4hrgwuw99vjcwkpdf9dr9kmjgfg985jfqu4665m nostr:npub1erhg86xl307d46pla66aycr6sjpy9esnrffysr98l5pjvt2fdgeq8wru26!!! Excited to collaborate on #Bitcoin and #Nostr education and adoption in Toronto. Look g forward to growing our local community.
You’re welcome, nostr:npub18jgxqshg38cgzcv43zvqhnc7hjn223psy2kkmkpqt2azd9thyy4sxjc5gt nostr:note18lg6tvysr0pjlpdl3fklzecj94hfkxjfv8k7570ndekn66dp69nst94857
I’m not a big American football fan, but happy to join the pile on.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2Gghy6rWhb/?igsh=MWZxeHhoaHUwdXlzbA==
#Bitcoin only 
Facts! 
I woke up this morning feeling this immense sense of urgency that we need to onboard another 10 million people globally to self-custodied #Bitcoin by January 3, 2024. A combination of new Bitcoiners and Bitcoiners getting their #BTC off exchanges.
Are forthcoming spot #Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. positive or negative in the long run? I dunno. BUT, I don’t want for us to risk the transformational potential of Bitcoin globally. So, let’s front run the hell out of large institutions b/n now and Bitcoin’s 15th birthday (Jan 3). LFG!
Please help! I’m trying to use Nostr more routinely (via nostr:npub18m76awca3y37hkvuneavuw6pjj4525fw90necxmadrvjg0sdy6qsngq955) and am running into this problem. I have no idea what wallet is currently attached to my profile. It seems I can zap and be zapped, but I have no idea where it’s going to or coming from. Have tested via a couple small zaps and it’s not connecting to any of my current wallets. I also go to the “Settings” page and try to “Attach a Wallet” but either get an error message when I click “Attach Wallet” or get a scan option with a “Paste” option but when I try to paste in a wallet address nothing happens. Can someone help? nostr:npub1xtscya34g58tk0z605fvr788k263gsu6cy9x0mhnm87echrgufzsevkk5s anyone else? 🙏
Let’s make war unaffordable. #Bitcoin fixes incentives, which can help heal the world. 
Hello all! I’ve been away from Nostr for a bit. I’ll try to get back here more regularly. Shout out to all who are building the decentralized, free, open-source future for humanity!
One of the dopest music icons pics of all time! 