Good morning friends ☕️

Nostr is my first real use-case for Lightning. I haven't used it much in the past.

Wow! 我要去吃🤩

索罗斯前两天在慕尼黑工业大学做了演讲。讲了地缘政治和对未来的一些预判，对于参与crypto金融游戏，对趋势分析感兴趣的人，会有收获。

The Lightning Network turns Bitcoin into a combination of assets and a liability.

Inbound liquidity itself is a pure asset as is bitcoin itself. However, outbound liquidity carries with it additional costs. Namely, it carries a risk premium (versus on-chain), which is a small, but non-zero liability.

The allocation of bitcoin in lightning channels provides a net benefit to the wealth of the network, provided that the value of the inbound liquidity exceeds the cost of the risk premium.

The risk premium can be assessed by multiplying the percentage probability of an event occurring with the cost of that event for all possible events.

The value of the inbound liquidity is a function of the supply of bitcoin available for allocation and the aggregate demand for future lightning settlement.

On-chain fees also play several roles: These fees are friction to opening a channel, which means that the price paid for a channel must exceed at least the cost of the channel opening. Otherwise, there is no guaranteed incentive to create a new channel.

On-chain fees also increase the risk premium in the form of force closure risk, which requires that high priority transaction fees be paid. In high fee environments, this cost is significant.

Lastly, on-chain fees drive demand for lightning as a far cheaper alternative to on-chain settlement.

Consequently, on-chain fees will set a floor price for the cost of liquidity while driving demand for lightning and increasing risk.

The value of the network will increase with additional demand for lightning payments, but you can expect to pay higher fees when the mempool is elevated to account for the increased risk premium.

Sailing into Bitcoin future.

Zap me ⚡