GM. 🌅

As the price continues to rise, stay rational and do not let emotions control your actions.

One thing to remember is that, more than any other commodity in history, the Bitcoin market actual links to TWO others: The energy market and the currency market.

Think of the energy market, the currency market and the Bitcoin market as a triangle that must remain in balance. Like a rubber band they pull on each other, if they get too imbalanced they must correct.

Bitcoin's price on the currency market can rise and rise, without any grounding in reality, as retail FOMO really kicks in. (This phase still hasn't begun this cycle but it will soon as we keep making new ATHs.)

Bitcoin's price on the energy market, however, cannot rise uncontrollably no matter how much FOMO is going on with the currency market.

Because the mining network's ability to exchange kWH for Sats is limited by our ability to both produce cheap energy to sell, and our ability to create and use ASICS that do the work (securing the network with that energy in exchange for Sats).

When the price on the currency market goes much higher than the price on the energy market, then the price of the equipment (ASICS) that are able to create Bitcoin (for less than it costs on the open market) will go up and as it does so will production.

But, as ASICS are a free market good limited by our production capacity, the ability to produce new ASICS in response to demand will be too delayed. Partially because ramping up production right when we're historically about to have another major bear market, would be a foolish thing for a company to do.

When the currency market price quickly goes up way higher than the marginal cost of production is on the energy market, the price will inevitably crash to return to its marginal cost of production. This is necessary for the market to remain healthy and based in reality.

We may very well reach $500k or more on the currency market by the end of this cycle, but, if the average mining costs are unable grow to similar levels per coin in the same time frame, then it WILL correct.

Think about it logically, if it costs $80k to mine a Bitcoin today then it would require roughly tripling the hashrate of the mining network to bring it's marginal cost of production to $250k. Bitcoin is already the largest computational network on earth by a significant margin after 15 years. Do you really think that in less than 1 year we can triple it? This becomes more unlikely the older and larger the network gets.

Some people say the mining network has nothing to do with it's price, I couldn't disagree more. They are fundamentally linked and to think otherwise misses the big picture.

Bitcoin will not always be priced in dollars, it will ALWAYS be priced in kWH of energy. All Bitcoin are tokens that represents the value of the energy used to create new coins, which is consistently rising over time and will likely continue to do so at a sustainable pace.

Learn the game, play it, and win.

Selling Dollars for Bitcoin is best done when Bitcoin's price on the currency market is BELOW it's marginal cost of production on the energy market. Buying Dollars with Bitcoin is best done when it's price on the currency market is ABOVE its marginal cost of production on the energy market.

While the price is volatile, if the price on the currency market is above or below the price on the energy market then it's volatility will lean in the direction of the other market.

Since the two markets are fundamentally linked together and must remain close to each other over time, you're essentially arbitraging the two markets when you sell Bitcoin above it's energy cost and buy it back when it's below. This is not easy however, with many having tried to time the open market failing to do so.

I believe their mistake is in trying to time the currency market and ignoring the energy market. So consider both when deciding on long term moves, doing this you are more likely to grow your stack and also will help stabilize the price over the long term as arbitrage tends to do between markets.

Ignore the energy market at your own peril, whether you're a trader or a HODLer it's something in which you should be keenly paying attention.

Personal predictions:

$1 (USD) = 1000 Sats or less before the end of the year.

$1 = 160 - 400 sats somewhere around the end of the 3rd quarter 2025.

$1 = 800 - 1400 Sats around 4th quarter 2026.

$1 = 100 Sats or less mid to late 3rd quarter 2029.

Stay humble and stack sats.

☮️❤️₿

I LOVE biscuits and sausage gravy. 😋

Why would believing something that has no evidence and nobody can agree on the details of, causing significant division in society distracting us from what's really going on, a middle finger to the elite?

The elite LOVE religion, it gives them more control and you're falling for it my friend.

"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful.”

- Seneca Lucius Seneca, Circa 50 CE.

Read Carl Sagan and Richard Dawkins.

Had a great time on the walk this morning 🌄😄. See ya next time.

Thankfully we have the government to step in and protect people from consuming potentially dangerous products like this!

https://www.foodandwine.com/costco-kirkland-signature-butter-recall-8742337

8400 👀

You know if you take a moment to actually think about it, society can't get anything accomplished because we're all being drained of so much energy it's not even funny.

Do you own something expensive that you, as a struggling person, couldn't afford to cover financially in a rare emergency? Like a home? Car? (Your own) Human body? Make sure you have INSURANCE. Home insurance + Car insurance + Health insurance + Dental Insurance + Vision insurance etc.

These insurance plans cost combined close to if not over $1000/mo typically for the average person, unless you're employer gives insurance benefits to reduce their costs. That is 20% of the median pre-tax income!

"According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), American workers made a median wage of $1,139 per week in the first quarter of 2024, which would add up to $59,228 per year." - https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

Don't forget INCOME TAXES lowering take home, making insurance effectively nearly 25% of post tax income.

Let's say you earn $60,000 a year, your total income taxes (including SS and Medicare) lower that 20% to about $48k.

$1k a month Insurance costs lowers that to $36k.

Median rent is somewhere between $1.5k and $2k a month depending on source. Let's go with $1.5k. $18k a year which cuts your remaining take home pay in half again.

Insurance, taxes, and rent. In just those 3 categories alone, 70% of the average income is gone without you even getting to own anything in return.

After all that you have $18k left for the entire year. That's $1500 a month to cover utilities (including cell phone and Internet bills), emergencies, food, entertainment, 1 or more car payments, saving for retirement, pay for your kids, pay for higher education.

It also gets worse every year since our wages and savings reduce in value consistently, because they're denominated in units that has its supply expand (and value contract) ~7% a year.

We're all being leached of more energy than ever before in history, and we're not even done yet!

Buy something at the store? Mandatory ~8% sales tax.

Buy a home instead of rent? Mandatory ~2% annual property tax to live in the home you supposedly own.

Buy anything anywhere with a debit or credit card? ~3% processing fee. You don't see this fee, but the business does and necessarily includes the cost in higher prices so you're still paying for it regardless.

Want to be entertained? Neverending subscriptions and/or ads. The average person spends hundreds of dollars a month for subscriptions, this is PERPETUAL RENTING! You're not building anything by being a subscriber to these services.

Imagine what we could do as a society if we could finally kick the leeches to the curb. There is no end to the prosperity and progress we could accomplish if we could end the siphoning of energy from everyone.

Life shouldn't be this hard, and it doesn't have to be. The time of the leeches is ending.

I like this. If someone doesn't engage much then they won't care enough to be reminded to back up their nsec. If someone does engage then gently reminding them to back it up and give themselves a username is a great way spread out onboarding info to get them to not feel overwhelmed by the technical details of it all.

I would like to take a moment to congratulate Bitcoin for such a milestone!

Once again through it's mining incentive Bitcoin successfully paid humanity to convert significant amounts of waste energy into the security value of a continuously maintained decentralized globally available network, while at the same time successfully processing thousands of international final settlement transactions with no trusted 3rd party in only 10 min.

Bitcoin has once again enabled the true saving of value across time by all participants by offering an asset that is free of arbitrary and unpredictable debasement, incredibly increasing the ability of people to see the benefit of saving for the long term and having a low time preference.

Voting for Bitcoin (by participating in it as a saver) votes for the following policies:

Honesty in finance - No more wolf of wall street types taking risks with other people's money and getting bailed out by the money printer when they fail.

Integrity in government - No more imbalanced budgets paid for through the "sale" of treasuries that get purchased by the Federal Reserve from an account with a 0 balance (as that only steals productivity from both the future and the present), leading to only honest taxation to fund voter approved projects.

Anti-War - It becomes more expensive to wage war for all sides, and thus less likely to occur.

More Efficient Economy - No more middle men taking 2%+ cuts of every transaction you ever make only to take that money and fund projects you don't like. The only transaction fees paid in Bitcoin go to sustain the network for the long term.

More Privacy - No more surveillance over every transaction and all it's details, able to decline transactions they don't approve. Yes the block chain is traceable, but there's no data on where or for what the transaction occured and no transaction can be blocked when it's truly P2P.

With all these incredible policies, Bitcoin still has my vote in this never ending race against corruption and greed for a truly better world. The longer we vote for Bitcoin the better life gets for ourselves and the world around us.

The best part is Bitcoin has no term limits, when adoption fully occurs it will be here to stay.

Don't stress too much about something you have no control over, if you save in Bitcoin you are doing more to move the world towards a better future than all current pro-FIAT politicians combined.

Keep perspective on the bigger picture of the long term instead of just the here and now. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither will the future we WILL create on the foundation of the hardest money to ever exist.

☮️♥️₿

I wonder who would become Augustus Trump in the new American Empire if that were to happen.

First time babysitting friend's kids today. It's kinda hectic but not so bad. Parenting 10 hour trial run 😆.

One day I'll have my own little "human puppies" / "gremlins" / "crotch goblins" (as my girlfriend and I jokingly call kids 😂) running around, it'll be amazing but I will definitely miss the quiet calmness of childless adult life. Worth it though. I look forward to being a Dad someday.

I'm so sorry to hear that!

I suggest they get a Vitamix blender (powerful enough to break down tough fiber into a smooth consistency, even carrots and kale) and blend lots of fresh fruits and vegetables for him to drink. I personally regularly drink the following recipe and use it to make 2 different ones focusing on green or red for the final color.

16oz liquid (water or milk)

24oz various raw fruit

12oz various raw veggies (roots/greens)

2 scoops of vanilla protein powder

12oz ice

Optionally add dates to sweeten further.

Blend on speed 10 for 2 min straight, then when finished blend on low for a few min on and off to massage all the bubbles out so it's not foamy. This keeps in the fridge for a while so you can spend a few hours filling the fridge with smoothies to drink throughout the next few days.

I store mine in the fridge in pint mason jars with leak proof lids.

Question everything.

I wouldn't have the peace of mind about the future that I have now. I wouldn't have healed from my trauma as much. I would be living a very different life. I prefer my life on Bitcoin to what it would've been without it.

The Federal Reserve

GM!

It feels amazing to have a social media that is uncensored and without ads.

This is truly the future.

The state of society is sad these days.

I see tons of online posts and hear friends conversations talking about degradation of quality and increasing prices, comments blaming the greed of the businesses for having a harder time affording things.

I really think most people are so far down the rabbit hole that their lives will need to get significantly worse while Bitcoiner's lives just improve around them for them to realize we're right and not just crack pots who don't know what we're talking about.

I have some friends who have outright told me they just don't care about what I've learned about Bitcoin and money, that I'm not an economist.

Just stack and don't worry about everyone else. They'll learn eventually and at their own pace. We can't save everyone.

Oh no it CRASHED to $69,420! Bitcoin is dead because it's value in government coupons reduced a little. 😭😭😭 🪦⚰️

I want to make one thing clear.

People who are different from you are NOT the problem with modern society.

Stop blaming each other for a systemic failure of our economic system.

We CAN coexist peacefully on an honest hard money system.

The problem is the foundation of the specific section of our language and communication is broken! The communication of the transfer of value across space and time is utterly destroyed due to the money printers.

Save in Bitcoin, opt out of the mechanism of monetary inflation that is destroying humanity and it's ability to flourish.

Stop hating each other, we are all far more alike then we are different.

We all want the freedom to make our own decisions and to lead our own lives the way we see fit. Help us all to get their sooner by fully embracing the best form of energy storage in history.

The more you support Bitcoin, the better off society and you personally will be.

"Feminism is a scam"? Oh sure, let's go back to when women needed permission to do or buy anything without the permission of a male relative. Where woman weren't allowed to participate in society at all, no voting, no working, etc.

Enabling women to be independent and free of a man is a good thing if it's OPTIONAL, the FIAT system is the problem that has forced everyone to work twice as hard and need 2 incomes to survive which makes being a working woman not optional.

Make single income households possible again on a hard money Bitcoin standard, but in a modern way where either the man or woman can be the homemaker.

I'm a man and I plan on being the homemaker in my marriage with my current partner when we have kids. We both love the idea, I'll be a writer and take care of everything at home while she pursues her passions outside the home with my support.