#SundayMorningRead
Must-read! 🤔 😯 Likely the most important article you'll read today: long-term public health, societal implications, concerns.
Why long COVID could be a ticking time bomb for public health
Long COVID isn't novel: Other viruses in history have had similar "long" arcs - with devastating repercussions
Great article by Philip Finkelstein | https://philipfinkelstein.com
Cites leading peer-reviewed, primary research (Nature Communications; Mayo Clinic; ...)
...
... cont'd
Schaeffer et. al. argue that the emergent abilities are predictably acquired according to a smooth scaling law.
Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?
https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.15004
Prompt engineering: Chain-of-thought reasoning:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prompt_engineering#Chain-of-thought
#LLM #LargeLanguageModels #emergence #EmergentProperties #SystemsTheory #PromptEngineering #reasoning #epistemology #ArtificialIntelligence #AI #ML #NLP #NaturalLanguageProcessing #UnsupervisedLearning #linguistics
... (cont'd)
Scaling laws and emergent abilities
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model
LLM model performance f. 100 million to >500 billion parameters = progressive unlocking of emergent capabilities such as multi-lingual translation, arithmetic, programming code composition
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model#Scaling_laws_and_emergent_abilities
... larger models may acquire "emergent abilities" at this point. These abilities are discovered rather than programmed or designed, in some cases only after the LLM has been publicly deployed
...
... cont'd
Emergent abilities include:
* arithmetic, decoding alphabets, unscrambling words, word disambiguation ...
* model outputs are improved by chain-of-thought prompting only when model size exceeds 62 billion parameters. Smaller models perform better when prompted to answer immediately, w/o chain of thought
* identifying offensive content in paragraphs of Hinglish (a combination of Hindi and English), & generating a similar English equivalent of Kiswahili proverbs
...
... (cont'd)
Scaling laws and emergent abilities
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model
LLM model performance f. 100 million to >500 billion parameters = progressive unlocking of emergent capabilities such as multi-lingual translation, arithmetic, programming code composition
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model#Scaling_laws_and_emergent_abilities
... larger models may acquire "emergent abilities" at this point. These abilities are discovered rather than programmed or designed, in some cases only after the LLM has been publicly deployed
...
... (cont'd)
[Google Brain] Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models
https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903
Recent work suggests chain-of-thought prompting changes scaling curves & therefore the point where emergence occurs.
In their paper the Google researchers showed chain-of-thought prompts could elicit emergent behaviors.
Such prompts, which ask the model to explain its reasoning, may help researchers begin to investigate why emergence occurs at all.
...
... (cont'd)
Recent findings like these suggest at least two possibilities for why emergence occurs.
1. In comparison to biological systems larger models truly gain new abilities spontaneously.
2. What appears to be emergent may instead be the culmination of an internal, statistics-driven process that works through chain-of-thought-type reasoning. Large LLMs may simply be learning heuristics that are out of reach for those with fewer parameters or lower-quality data.
...
Emergent properties of Large Language Models (LLM)
The Unpredictable Abilities Emerging From Large AI Models
Large language models like ChatGPT are big enough that they're displing startling, unpredictable behaviors
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-unpredictable-abilities-emerging-from-large-ai-models-20230316
Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35195106
Researchers at Google Brain showed how a model prompted to explain itself (a capacity called chain-of-thought reasoning) could correctly solve a math word problem, while the same model without that prompt could not.
...
... (cont'd)
[Google Brain] Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models
https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903
Recent work suggests chain-of-thought prompting changes scaling curves & therefore the point where emergence occurs.
In their paper the Google researchers showed chain-of-thought prompts could elicit emergent behaviors.
Such prompts, which ask the model to explain its reasoning, may help researchers begin to investigate why emergence occurs at all.
...
Emergent properties of Large Language Models (LLM)
The Unpredictable Abilities Emerging From Large AI Models
Large language models like ChatGPT are big enough that they're displing startling, unpredictable behaviors
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-unpredictable-abilities-emerging-from-large-ai-models-20230316
Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35195106
Researchers at Google Brain showed how a model prompted to explain itself (a capacity called chain-of-thought reasoning) could correctly solve a math word problem, while the same model without that prompt could not.
...
... Addendae (cont'd)
DeSantis Sheds Staff Amid Heavy Spending
Dismissals come as his campaign struggles to gain traction against Trump, leading in polls
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/us/politics/desantis-staff-campaign-shakeup.html
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) started cutting campaign staff months into his presidential bid as he struggles to gain traction in the Republican primary. The dismissals are an ominous sign for his campaign.
... Addendae (cont'd)
Trump Says DeSantis Has No Path to Victory
Trump taunted Ron DeSantis (R-FL), his chief Republican rival, for absence @ conservative Turning Point Action Conference
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/us/politics/trump-turning-point-desantis.html
Trump, who leads DeSantis by ~30% points in national polls, dismissed DeSantis’ early momentum
https://persagen.com >> "Turning Point Action"
#2024USElections #RonDeSantis #2024PresidentialCandidates #TurningPointAction #neofascism #CultureWars #RepublicanParty #DonaldTrump
OntoChatGPT Information System: Ontology-Driven Structured Prompts for ChatGPT Meta-Learning
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.05082
This research develops methodological foundations for utilizing ontology-driven structured prompts with ChatGPT
Structuring instructions (prompt phrases) in JSON format researchers/developers can ensure information is organized, interpretable, maximally efficient for ChatGPT
* Aside: Ukrainian research project 🇺🇦
#LLM #LargeLanguageModels #ChatHGPT #GPT #ontology #OntoChatGPT
Third of North America’s Birds Have Vanished
https://nautil.us/a-third-of-north-americas-birds-have-vanished-340007
Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36741910
Comment: article alerts to phenomenon, no discussion otherwise
HN comment:
"You have to ... discourage those folks who feed breeding feral cats.
Also the notion of allowing pet cats to roam is an ecological catastrophe.
They are wanton hunters, beyond any need for food. They especially love to kill birds. ..."
Cat predation on wildlife: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cat_predation_on_wildlife
#birds #ecology #cats
“Harbinger of failure:" Consumers who unerringly buy unpopular products
https://news.mit.edu/2015/harbinger-failure-consumers-unpopular-products-1223
Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36743547
Paper: https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/111114
“Harbingers of failure” systematically purchase new products that flop - a strong signal that a product will fail, challenging conventional wisdom that positive customer feedback signals future success.
These insights can be incorporated into product development.
#marketing #economics #consumerism #psychology
🎵 Morning ☮-in
Far Away Eyes (Remastered)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n-2vgbk6w4
The Rolling Stones - Far Away Eyes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyK1bZZ7E-s
Namaste 🙏 🕊
#MorningPeaceIn #RollingStones
... Addendae (cont'd)
With Centrist Manifesto No Labels Pushes Its Presidential Bid
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/no-labels-presidential-run.html
Skeptics say document on “politics of problem solving” by No Labels’ chief strategist Ryan Clancy is heavy on identifying problems / light on concrete solutions
https://www.commonsensemajority.org/_files/ugd/9f0726_a8092681d4cc40ae8623b98b83d3853d.pdf
No Labels’ opponents No Labels' rhetoric / appeals to centrism mask secret agenda to return Republicans to White House
#NoLabels #ElectoralFraud #neofascism #RepublicanParty #2024PresidentialCandidates
... Addendae (cont'd)
Heat Waves Are Smothering the Planet
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2023/07/record-heat-waves-july-canada-california-climate
Grim records keep tumbling: June 2023 was the warmest month on record. This weekend Death Valley CA could tie/set record for hottest temperature reliably recorded on Earth.
“The extreme weather ... is having major impact on human health, ecosystems, economies, agriculture, energy & water supplies” warned World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/extreme-heat-rainfall-highlight-need-more-climate-action
#GlogalWarming
... Addendae (cont'd)
Weather by the Numbers
Lots of triple-digit numbers tell the story of the early summer’s torrid heat wave
* In California 25 million people under heat advisories/warnings
* Death Valley National Park is projected to reach/pass 130 degF almost reaching world record temperature of 134 degF recorded there in 1913
* 70% of Americans will see temperatures hit 90+ degF; >55 million people will see temperatures that reach/exceed 100 degF
#GlobalWarming #HeatWaves #ExtremeHeat
... Addendae (cont'd)
Heat Waves Are Smothering the Planet
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2023/07/record-heat-waves-july-canada-california-climate
Grim records keep tumbling: June 2023 was the warmest month on record. This weekend Death Valley CA could tie/set record for hottest temperature reliably recorded on Earth.
“The extreme weather ... is having major impact on human health, ecosystems, economies, agriculture, energy & water supplies” warned World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/extreme-heat-rainfall-highlight-need-more-climate-action
#GlogalWarming
... Addendae (cont'd)
DeSantis Burns Cash, and Pence Struggles: 5 Takeaways From 2024 Filings
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/desantis-pence-trump-fundraising.html
#2024USelections #2024PresidentialCandidates #MikePence #RonDeSantis #ChristianRight #neofascism #CultureWars #RepublicanParty #TransLivesMatter
... Addendae (cont'd)
DeSantis Sheds Staff Amid Heavy Spending
Dismissals come as his campaign struggles to gain traction against Trump, leading in polls
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/us/politics/desantis-staff-campaign-shakeup.html
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) started cutting campaign staff months into his presidential bid as he struggles to gain traction in the Republican primary. The dismissals are an ominous sign for his campaign.
... Addendae (cont'd)
DeSantis Burns Cash, and Pence Struggles: 5 Takeaways From 2024 Filings
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/desantis-pence-trump-fundraising.html
#2024USelections #2024PresidentialCandidates #MikePence #RonDeSantis #ChristianRight #neofascism #CultureWars #RepublicanParty #TransLivesMatter
TERFs Are Drawing on the Same Fascist Arguments as Torture Advocates
Bigoted attacks on trans participation in sports and access to bathrooms outrageously rely on “ticking-bomb” rhetoric
https://truthout.org/articles/terfs-are-drawing-on-the-same-fascist-arguments-as-torture-advocates/
On both sides of the Atlantic, anti-trans hatred is gaining momentum.
...
#TERF #transphobia #;gbt #LGBTrights #LGBThate
Sweetheart Deal for Sacklers: Billionaires Get Immunity f. Civil Lawsuits over Opioid Crisis
https://www.democracynow.org/2023/6/2/sacklers_purdue_pharma_legal_immunity
* federal appeals court ruled members of the Sackler family can receive immunity f. all current/future civil litigation related to their role in creating/fueling opioid epidemic
* billionaire Sacklers own Purdue Pharma, maker of highly addictive opioid OxyContin
#OpioidAddiction #SacklerFamily #DefundBillionaires #OxyContin #PurduePharma #OpioidEpidemic #capitalism #PublicHealth