Bitcoin has to reprice real assets - energy, pipelines, refineries, food production, manufacturing, real estate - otherwise it isn’t really serving its purpose as a storer of value.

The sooner I can buy an oil field and enhance its productivity so I can buy & mine more bitcoin the better. This will happen because (1) the fiat valuation of the oil field has come down and (2) the purchasing power of bitcoin has gone up.

But we need fiat assets to be repriced just as badly as we need bitcoin to go up. The current valuations of everything are completely absurd. And I’ve stacked … in reference to a nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs post from a few weeks back … stacking now is immaterial…many newly convicted and dedicated bitcoiners need price action to unlock their sovereign productivity in the tangible world.

When does “absolute scarcity” rear its head this cycle. Seems like there are a bunch of fiat interests actively moving supply to market (or giving the perception of moving supply to market). For those of us fully vested for our first bull run, this wait is annoying, at best.

NGU is important because it enables bitcoiners to deploy capital into productive operations in pursuit of more bitcoin…but number has to go up.

If the money breaks down, then you’re going to get Mandibles / Atlas Shrugged for at least a period of time. And governments aren’t going to lead the way to prosperity, it’ll be co-ops, small service companies, and local productive industries (farming, energy, construction) that will lead emergent local economies that can help rebuild.

I agree it will be decentralized, locally-focus activities but disagree as to the role / importance of government.

A problem with this plan is once bitcoin is legitimized by any “major” country / company / institution, bitcoin’s price will skyrocket due to the suddenly aggressive following by the “investing public” … the Streisand Effect at its best.

Any bitcoin stacking moves made by any institution(s) will be done quietly until (suddenly) they’re done loudly with the accompanying bullish intended effect.

For the foreseeable future, yes. But the opportunity cost they’re imposing on themselves is significant.

The United States apparatus holds 1% of coins. Just let them ride and HODL…as far as nation states go the USA would still be the best positioned economically both with bitcoin and our natural resources.

How does this drawdown metric compare to the other halving events? And this metric looks to be difficulty adjustment % of last difficulty adjustment, correct? Looks to be updated more frequently than every 2016 blocks.

(Also, there is a typo in the legend.)

If Barstool starts to deploy the MicroStrategy “Fiat for Bitcoin” tactic, the floodgates will open. So many degenerate gambler bros out there that haven’t figured out Fiat debt to buy the best performing asset of all-time. Also, ties with ESPN…

Portnoy would have much more mainstream reach than Saylor if he stops flirting with bitcoin and goes all-in. nostr:note1gxdfe38fcqq0gzv55p8q9ktu42xdwcmhl4rklw39a0sl6pd9m76semrql8

Seems to be a bunch of large fiat interests selling their bitcoin recently. Bullish.

I can subscribe to this reasoning. nostr:note1e7f55870wff77vyr2gyupfa86cphgm2dzvx7k6rfarpvqxq6hfmqakgv9g

Harder to do… nostr:note1fx00eeu480arlz082y8u2dvllm8srpgvn7seeqlrgya20t7mtlwq7ar66v

Will nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m & MicroStrategy ever choose to buy back their own stock rather to induce a massive short squeeze rather than stack bitcoin?

#Truth nostr:note12chnsfdkeltqtvs5vfy82prjewtkxlcxkq60h0wwcxpevvq0aspqljhgpz

Waiting for that post-halving supply squeeze to hit. Feels like the traders have gotten a lot more sophisticated and have more tools (Spot ETF / Futures ETF) this cycle.

Time in the market vs. timing the market nostr:note1q0ay3yu08pj93xyuufg2g2k4jtyrkyen35nm5memyr7q5cqen5gqpapvl4

To win you’ve got to play the game. #bitcoin

Because of the difficulty adjustment, bitcoin is incentivized to use the cheapest electricity available. The cheapest electricity is waste, curtailed, and spare energy. When we experience hyperbitcoinization, bitcoin won’t create incremental energy supply … it will consume existing energy that otherwise wouldn’t be monetized.

So mining and what else would qualify? Everything else is “cashflow” … “satflow” doesn’t really exist until unit of account occurs which is a decade+ away.

Premature “satflow” is actually a cost burden for accounting and reporting (and accounts payable) perspective.

https://youtu.be/w8KQmps-Sog

I’m thinking on the fly…

If they’re buying spot bitcoin today in order to sell it into a future’s contract, then the future price must be greater than today’s price. Because the arbitrage opportunity (future - spot) has to not only generate a profit but also account for their financing cost of holding the bitcoin during that period of time.

Also, wouldn’t one think that in such a trade there is MORE demand in today’s spot market which would drive today’s price UP while the future’s price would go down?

Does Zelensky not have any suits? Why is he ALWAYS the politician wearing combat gear? Has there not been a single occasion in the last two years where decorum warranted him wearing a suit?

//How to spot a psy-op.