From Grok re KDLY fair price pre-merger with Nakamoto ($2.50 tops):

Determining a fair price for KindlyMD, Inc. (KDLY) shares prior to its merger with Nakamoto Holdings Inc., announced on May 12, 2025, requires evaluating available financial data, market performance, and the merger’s impact. However, the limited information in the sources, combined with the speculative nature of the merger and significant post-announcement price volatility, makes precise valuation challenging. Below, I’ll analyze the available data to estimate a fair price for KDLY shares pre-merger, focusing on fundamental metrics, market context, and the merger’s implications. All calculations and assumptions are based on the provided web sources and posts on X, with critical examination of their reliability.

Key Contextual Information

KindlyMD Overview: KindlyMD is a healthcare data company focused on holistic pain management, integrating prescription medicine and behavioral health to reduce opioid use. It had approximately 6 million shares outstanding and a market capitalization of $23.5 million at a share price of $3.90 as of May 9, 2025.

Merger Details: Announced May 12, 2025, KindlyMD is merging with Nakamoto Holdings Inc., a Bitcoin-native holding company, to form a Bitcoin treasury-focused entity. The merger includes:

$510 million PIPE financing at $1.12 per share (common stock and pre-funded warrants).

$200 million in senior secured convertible notes (conversion terms unclear).

Nakamoto shareholders receive 22.3 million shares of KindlyMD at $1.12 per share.

Stock Performance:

On May 9, 2025, KDLY closed at $3.90, with a 52-week range of $0.65 to $5.25.

Pre-market trading on May 12, 2025, saw KDLY surge to ~$20–$25.90 after the merger announcement, a 438.5%+ increase, reflecting speculative enthusiasm for the Bitcoin strategy.

Historical volatility was high, with a 16.25% daily fluctuation and a beta of 1.89, indicating significant risk.

Financial Metrics:

Q3 2024 revenue: $647,867, down 25.5% year-over-year due to a shift to insurance billing.

Q3 2024 net income: -$1.04 million, with an EBITDA of -$3.90 million and a negative gross profit margin of -59.5%.

Cash and short-term investments: $2.51 million, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44 and a current ratio of 2.3, suggesting moderate liquidity.

Market Sentiment:

Pre-merger, KDLY was considered a hold due to mixed signals (positive moving averages but overvalued per some metrics).

InvestingPro noted KDLY trading above its fair value pre-merger, with a 214% year-to-date return but operational challenges (negative margins, cash depletion).

Post-announcement X posts reflect speculative fervor, with some estimating KDLY’s post-merger stake at 0.8%–4.9% of the combined entity, though these are rough and unverified.

Valuation Approaches

To estimate a fair pre-merger price for KDLY shares (before the May 12 announcement), I’ll use fundamental and market-based approaches, excluding the post-announcement spike as it reflects merger-driven speculation rather than KindlyMD’s standalone value.

1. Fundamental Valuation: Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

Book Value: KDLY’s book value is implied by its market cap and P/B ratio. At a share price of $3.90 and 6 million shares, the market cap is $23.5 million. With a P/B ratio of 7.18x (compared to the industry average of 3.5x), the book value is approximately $23.5M ÷ 7.18 ≈ $3.27 million, or $3.27M ÷ 6M shares ≈ $0.54 per share.

Industry-Adjusted P/B: Applying the industry average P/B of 3.5x to KDLY’s book value suggests a fair price of $0.54 × 3.5 ≈ $1.89 per share. This accounts for KDLY’s unprofitability and aligns with its healthcare data sector peers.

Limitations: KDLY’s negative margins (-59.5%) and unprofitability make P/B less reliable, as book value may not reflect operational potential. The high P/B suggests market optimism pre-merger, possibly due to its insurance contracts (e.g., Cigna, United Healthcare).

2. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

Revenue: Q3 2024 revenue was $647,867, suggesting annualized revenue of ~$2.59 million (assuming consistent quarters).

Market Cap: At $3.90 per share, the market cap was $23.5 million, giving a P/S ratio of $23.5M ÷ $2.59M ≈ 9.07x.

Industry Comparison: The average P/S ratio for health information services is ~3–4x (based on typical SaaS and healthcare data firms). Applying a conservative 3.5x P/S to KDLY’s revenue yields a market cap of $2.59M × 3.5 ≈ $9.07 million, or $9.07M ÷ 6M shares ≈ $1.51 per share.

Adjustments: KDLY’s declining revenue (-25.5%) and negative margins justify a lower P/S multiple, but its insurance coverage (>90% in Utah) and growth potential may support a slight premium.

3. Market-Based Valuation: Pre-Merger Trading Range

Recent Price: KDLY closed at $3.90 on May 9, 2025, with a 115.47% gain over two weeks, reflecting pre-merger momentum (possibly due to merger leaks, as an X post noted a 70% weekly gain).

52-Week Range: $0.65–$5.25, with $3.90 near the high end, suggesting optimism but potential overvaluation.

Analyst Forecasts: CoinCodex predicted a $2.11 price by June 2, 2025, based on technical indicators, implying a -2.85% drop from $3.90, suggesting overvaluation at $3.90.

Fair Price Estimate: Given the $2.11 forecast and trading range, a fair price likely lies between the recent low-end support (~$2.00) and the closing price ($3.90), adjusted for overvaluation concerns. A range of $2.00–$2.50 aligns with technical sentiment and avoids speculative highs.

4. Merger Context: PIPE Pricing Benchmark

PIPE Price: The merger’s PIPE financing was priced at $1.12 per share, significantly below the $3.90 closing price, suggesting institutional investors valued KDLY conservatively pre-merger.

Implication: The $1.12 price may reflect Nakamoto’s valuation of KDLY’s contribution or a discount to secure the PIPE. While not a direct fair value, it indicates a lower bound for KDLY’s standalone worth, supporting a fair price closer to $1.12–$2.00 before speculative surges.

Critical Analysis

Overvaluation Signals: InvestingPro noted KDLY trading 782% above its fair value pre-merger, with a negative gross margin (-59.5%) and cash depletion risks. The P/B (7.18x vs. 3.5x industry) and P/S (9.07x vs. 3–4x) ratios suggest KDLY was priced optimistically, possibly due to its insurance contracts or merger rumors.

Speculative Surge: The pre-market jump to $20–$25.90 on May 12 reflects Bitcoin-related hype, not KDLY’s fundamentals. X posts suggest insider knowledge or leaks (70% weekly gain), inflating the price before the announcement.

Operational Weakness: KDLY’s declining revenue, negative EBITDA (-$3.90M), and unprofitability weaken its standalone value, justifying a lower fair price absent the merger.

Merger Impact: The merger dilutes KDLY shareholders to ~0.8%–1.24% of the combined entity, but the $710 million capital raise and Bitcoin strategy drove the price surge, not KDLY’s intrinsic value.

Fair Price Estimate

Combining these approaches, a fair pre-merger price for KDLY shares as of May 9, 2025, likely falls in the range of $1.50–$2.50:

P/B Approach: ~$1.89, based on industry-adjusted book value.

P/S Approach: ~$1.51, reflecting revenue and sector norms.

Market-Based: ~$2.00–$2.50, aligning with technical forecasts ($2.11) and trading support levels, discounting speculative highs.

PIPE Benchmark: ~$1.12, as a conservative lower bound.

The $2.00 midpoint balances KDLY’s operational challenges (negative margins, unprofitability) with its growth potential (insurance coverage, healthcare data) and market sentiment pre-merger. The $3.90 closing price appears inflated, likely due to merger leaks or sector optimism, as supported by InvestingPro’s overvaluation warning and the PIPE’s $1.12 pricing.

Caveats

Limited Data: Exact book value, revenue projections, and PIPE warrant terms are incomplete, limiting precision. SEC filings (e.g., 8-K) could clarify.

Speculative Noise: The post-announcement surge distorts market-based valuation, and X posts (e.g., 4.9% stake claim) are unverified and likely overestimate KDLY’s share.

Bitcoin Risk: The merger’s Bitcoin focus introduces volatility, irrelevant to pre-merger valuation but inflating perceptions.

Source Reliability: Web sources are recent but lack detailed financials, and X posts are speculative, requiring cautious use.

Conclusion

A fair price for KDLY shares pre-merger, as of May 9, 2025, is approximately $1.50–$2.50, with $2.00 as a reasonable estimate. This reflects KDLY’s fundamental value (P/B, P/S), market trends (technical forecasts, trading range), and the PIPE’s conservative pricing, while discounting the speculative $3.90 close and post-merger surge. KDLY’s unprofitability and high volatility suggest caution, but its insurance contracts and healthcare data potential justify a modest premium over book value.

For a more precise valuation, review KindlyMD’s 8-K filing or information statement on www.sec.gov for detailed merger terms and financials. If you’d like, I can search for additional SEC documents or analyze specific financial metrics further. Would you like me to do so?

Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don’t share information that can identify you.

Strategy’s (previously Microstrategy - see Strategy.com )new capital plan combined with the remaining amount from the last one equates very closely to 1M more BTC at today’s price. nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m is giving the world of fiat a life boat and most still prefer to tread water in the rising fiat ocean. Anyone with the means to step into the lifeboat but have yet to, needs to look into the mirror each morning and ask yourself if you are certain you are on the right side of financial history.

I need an hour please (saved 23s).

Carney was more accessible than Pierre during the campaign. He also has a more natural and also naturally assuring presence on TV, and it seems in person also. Neither candidate made a serious attempt to provide a detailed budget plan, counter to different reasons to expect both to have done so. Pierre made no attempt to distance himself from his original base of Trump like supporters, including the Alberta Premier, which resulted in more of the estranged NDP vote to go to Carney versus Pierre, especially in Quebec. Carney did not make the mistake of ever more oppressive identity politics that the US Dems did. So Canadians have elected a comforting experienced leader, likely to spread excessive fiscal expeditures somewhat equally among all economically challenged Canadians, while also keeping the banking system status quo with a go slow approach with BTC and keeping chokepoint lite ongoing.

Predictions:

1)Strike.me will be largely or completely acquired by the newly announced SPAC, Twenty One Capital, Inc., led by Jack Mallers as CEO, to trade under the ticker symbol XXI on Nasdaq upon completion of its merger with Cantor Equity.

2)XXI's btc/share kpi will do well but its shareholders will suffer from a post offering devaluation worse than the Nov to April MSTR retracement.

3) XXI and MSTR will turbocharge tradfi interest in BTC treasury companies, resulting in accelerated BTC acquisition by both companies.

4) If either XXI or MSTR indicate interest in buying out the other, mNav values of both will skyrocket as tradfi looks to new FASB and treasury driven 1/4 ly valuation gains that dwarf MAG7 1/4 ly earnings, to estimate acquisition price for either.

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Carney is seen as Canada's anti-Trump. Simple as that really.

XAI Grok says MSTR is too risky, invest in an S&P 500 ETF. Thanks for your input Grok.....

To determine the best investment for a retail investor in North America with $50,000 and a four-year time horizon from a risk/reward perspective, we need to evaluate options that balance potential returns with risk, considering the investor’s likely goals of capital preservation and growth. Given the context of your prior questions about MSTY and MSTR, which are high-risk, Bitcoin-correlated assets, I’ll assess a range of investment options, including equities, ETFs, bonds, crypto proxies, and diversified portfolios, while factoring in current market conditions as of April 29, 2025. The analysis will prioritize expected returns, volatility, liquidity, tax efficiency, and suitability for a retail investor with moderate financial sophistication.

Key Assumptions

Investor Profile: Retail investor, moderate risk tolerance (inferred from interest in MSTR/MSTY), seeking growth over four years, likely tax-sensitive, and based in North America (U.S./Canada).

Investment Horizon: Four years (mid-2029), suggesting a medium-term outlook where liquidity and moderate volatility are important.

Capital: $50,000, sufficient for diversified investments but not for complex private market strategies (e.g., venture capital).

Market Context: As of April 2025, global equities are near all-time highs (S&P 500 5,800), Bitcoin is at ~$45,000 (down from 2024 peaks), bond yields are ~4–5% for U.S. Treasuries, and inflation is moderating (2–3%). Recession risks linger, but no immediate crisis is evident.

Tax Considerations: U.S./Canadian investors face capital gains taxes (15–20% long-term in the U.S., 50% of gains in Canada) and ordinary income taxes (up to 37% U.S., ~50% Canada). Tax-advantaged accounts (e.g., IRA, RRSP) may be available.

Investment Options Evaluated

I’ll compare five viable options for a retail investor: (1) Broad Market Equity ETF, (2) Dividend Growth ETF, (3) U.S. Treasury Bonds/ETFs, (4) MSTR (MicroStrategy), and (5) MSTY (YieldMax MSTR Option Income ETF). Each is assessed for expected returns, risks, and suitability over four years.

1. Broad Market Equity ETF (e.g., VOO, SPY, VTI)

Description: Tracks the S&P 500 (VOO, SPY) or total U.S. market (VTI), offering exposure to ~500–4,000 U.S. companies. Low-cost (expense ratio ~0.03–0.04%), highly liquid, and diversified across sectors (tech, healthcare, financials).

Expected Returns:

Historical S&P 500 annualized return (1928–2024): ~10% nominal, ~7% after inflation.

Forward estimate (2025–2029): 6–8% annualized, based on current valuations (P/E ~24, above historical average of 16) and expected GDP growth (2–3%).

With $50,000, expect ~$62,000–$67,000 by 2029 (6–8% CAGR, assuming reinvested dividends).

Risks:

Market Risk: S&P 500 drawdowns average 14% annually, with max drawdowns of ~50% in crises (e.g., 2008). A 2025–2026 recession could cause a 20–30% drop.

Valuation Risk: High P/E ratios suggest lower future returns compared to historical averages.

Volatility: Annualized volatility ~15–20%, moderate for equities.

Advantages:

Diversification reduces company-specific risk.

Tax-efficient (capital gains on sale, qualified dividends ~2% yield taxed at 15–20%).

High liquidity, low fees, and simple to manage.

Suitability: Ideal for retail investors seeking growth with moderate risk. Fits a four-year horizon, as recoveries from drawdowns typically occur within 1–3 years.

2. Dividend Growth ETF (e.g., VIG, DGRO)

Description: Invests in companies with consistent dividend growth (e.g., Apple, Microsoft, Visa), offering income and capital appreciation. Expense ratio ~0.06–0.08%, yield ~1.8–2.5%.

Expected Returns:

Historical return: ~8–10% annualized (similar to S&P 500 but with lower volatility).

Forward estimate: ~6–7% annualized (4–5% capital appreciation + 2% dividends).

With $50,000, expect ~$61,000–$65,000 by 2029 (reinvesting dividends).

Risks:

Market Risk: Similar to broad market ETFs but slightly lower volatility (~12–15%) due to focus on stable, high-quality firms.

Sector Concentration: Overweight in tech and financials, vulnerable to sector-specific downturns.

Interest Rate Risk: Rising rates could pressure dividend stocks’ valuations.

Advantages:

Steady income stream for reinvestment or cash flow.

Tax-efficient (qualified dividends, capital gains).

Lower volatility than broad market, appealing for risk-averse investors.

Suitability: Suits investors wanting growth with some income and lower volatility. Four-year horizon aligns with compounding dividends and moderate capital gains.

3. U.S. Treasury Bonds/ETFs (e.g., TLT, GOVT)

Description: Invests in U.S. government bonds (5–20-year maturities) or ETFs tracking them. Current yields ~4.5% for 10-year Treasuries, expense ratio ~0.15% for ETFs.

Expected Returns:

Yield to maturity: ~4–5% annualized if held to maturity.

Total return: ~3–5% annualized, assuming stable or declining rates. Rising rates could reduce ETF prices (e.g., TLT fell 40% from 2020–2023 as rates rose).

With $50,000, expect ~$58,000–$61,000 by 2029 (4–5% CAGR).

Risks:

Interest Rate Risk: Rising rates decrease bond prices, especially for longer maturities (duration risk ~10–15 years for TLT).

Inflation Risk: Fixed yields may lag inflation (~2–3% expected), eroding real returns.

Low Return Potential: Limited upside compared to equities, unsuitable for aggressive growth.

Advantages:

Near-zero credit risk (backed by U.S. government).

Predictable income, high liquidity.

Tax-exempt in some states (e.g., U.S.), but federal taxes apply.

Suitability: Best for conservative investors prioritizing capital preservation. Four-year horizon is viable but less attractive for growth-focused retail investors.

4. MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)

Description: A Bitcoin proxy holding 447,470 BTC ($20.5 billion), using debt and equity to amplify Bitcoin exposure. Stock price ~$400, market cap ~$99.3 billion, highly volatile.

Expected Returns:

Tied to Bitcoin’s price. If BTC grows at 15% annualized (2020–2024 average), MSTR could return ~20–30% annualized due to leverage (assuming no dilution).

Bull case (BTC to $100,000 by 2029): MSTR could double or triple ($800–$1,200), yielding $100,000–$150,000.

Bear case (BTC to $20,000): MSTR could drop 70–80% ($80–$120), reducing $50,000 to $10,000–$15,000.

Risks:

Extreme Volatility: Implied volatility ~102%, max drawdown 86% (2021–2023). Annualized volatility ~112%.

Leverage Risk: Debt-financed Bitcoin purchases (~$4 billion in bonds) risk liquidity issues in a BTC crash.

Valuation Risk: Trades at 250% premium to BTC holdings, vulnerable to sentiment shifts.

Dilution Risk: Ongoing equity issuances ($42 billion planned) dilute shareholders.

Regulatory Risk: Bitcoin bans or restrictions could cripple MSTR’s strategy.

Advantages:

High upside in a Bitcoin bull market.

Tax-efficient (capital gains only).

Liquid, with strong retail interest.

Suitability: High-risk, speculative bet for Bitcoin bulls. Four-year horizon is plausible for growth but risky due to volatility and potential drawdowns.

5. MSTY (YieldMax MSTR Option Income ETF)

Description: Generates income by selling covered calls on MSTR, yielding ~30–50% annually (variable). Expense ratio ~1%, taxed as ordinary income.

Expected Returns:

Bull case: If MSTR remains volatile, MSTY could yield 20–30% annualized (dividends only, capped upside), growing $50,000 to $80,000–$100,000 (reinvested, pre-tax).

Bear case: Flat or declining MSTR prices reduce premiums, yielding 0–10% or losses, with $50,000 falling to $30,000–$40,000 (due to option decay and fees).

After-tax returns lower (e.g., 37% tax reduces 30% yield to ~19%).

Risks:

Capital Loss: A 50–60% MSTR drop could erase most capital due to options leverage.

Capped Upside: Misses MSTR’s gains in a Bitcoin rally.

Tax Inefficiency: Dividends taxed at 37%, reducing net returns.

Volatility Dependence: Low MSTR volatility shrinks premiums, cutting income.

Advantages:

High income potential for reinvestment.

Less direct exposure to MSTR’s corporate risks.

Suitability: Suits income-focused investors betting on MSTR volatility, but four-year horizon risks capital erosion if MSTR stagnates or crashes.

Risk/Reward Comparison

Option

Expected Return (CAGR)

Volatility (Annualized)

Max Drawdown Risk

Tax Efficiency

Suitability (4-Year)

Broad Market ETF

6–8%

15–20%

20–50%

High (capital gains)

High (balanced growth)

Dividend Growth ETF

6–7%

12–15%

15–40%

High (qualified dividends)

High (income + growth)

U.S. Treasury ETF

3–5%

5–10%

10–20%

Moderate (interest taxed)

Moderate (conservative)

MSTR

20–30% (bull), -20% (bear)

100–120%

70–90%

High (capital gains)

Low (speculative)

MSTY

15–25% (bull), -10% (bear)

50–80%

50–80%

Low (ordinary income)

Low (income, high risk)

Best Investment Recommendation: Broad Market Equity ETF (e.g., VOO or VTI)

Rationale

Optimal Risk/Reward Balance:

Returns: Expected 6–8% CAGR offers solid growth for a retail investor, with $50,000 growing to ~$62,000–$67,000 by 2029. Historical data supports recovery from drawdowns within four years.

Risk: Moderate volatility (15–20%) and max drawdowns (20–50%) are manageable for a retail investor with moderate risk tolerance. Diversification across 500+ companies mitigates single-stock risks.

Suitability for Four-Year Horizon:

Equities typically outperform bonds and cash over four years, with S&P 500 recovering from most bear markets within 1–3 years (e.g., 2020 crash recovered in ~6 months).

Liquidity ensures flexibility to exit if needed (e.g., personal emergency or market shift).

Tax and Cost Efficiency:

Capital gains (15–20%) and qualified dividends (~2% yield) are tax-efficient, especially in tax-advantaged accounts (IRA, RRSP).

Ultra-low fees (~0.03%) maximize net returns.

Comparison to Alternatives:

Dividend Growth ETF: Slightly lower returns and volatility but less compelling for pure growth. Better for income-focused investors.

Treasury Bonds: Too conservative, with 3–5% returns lagging inflation and equities, unsuitable for growth.

MSTR: High upside but extreme volatility (112%) and risks (leverage, dilution, Bitcoin crash) make it speculative. Unsuitable for most retail investors without strong Bitcoin conviction.

MSTY: High income but capped upside, tax inefficiency (37% tax), and capital loss risk (50–80% drawdown) make it inferior to MSTR for growth and riskier than equities for stability.

Market Context: Equities are fairly valued (P/E ~24), and a four-year horizon mitigates short-term recession risks. Bitcoin-correlated assets like MSTR/MSTY are too volatile and speculative for a $50,000 portfolio without diversification.

Implementation

ETF Choice: Invest $50,000 in VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, expense ratio 0.03%) or VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, 0.03%) via a low-cost brokerage (e.g., Vanguard, Fidelity, or Interactive Brokers).

Allocation: 100% in VOO/VTI for simplicity and maximum growth. Alternatively, split 80% VOO/VTI and 20% VIG (Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF) for slight income exposure.

Account Type: Use a tax-advantaged account (e.g., Roth IRA, RRSP) to defer taxes. If in a taxable account, hold for >1 year to qualify for long-term capital gains.

Reinvestment: Reinvest dividends to compound returns (~2% yield adds ~0.5–1% to CAGR).

Monitoring: Review annually but avoid market timing. Rebalance if adding new funds, but a single ETF requires minimal maintenance.

Risk Mitigation

Diversification: VOO/VTI’s broad exposure reduces company-specific risk. If concerned about U.S. concentration, allocate 10–20% to an international ETF (e.g., VXUS, 0.07% fee).

Drawdown Preparedness: Be mentally prepared for 20–30% drops. A four-year horizon allows recovery, as historical bear markets (e.g., 2008, 2020) recovered within 1–3 years.

Avoid Leverage: Do not use margin or options, as $50,000 is sufficient for a diversified ETF position without amplifying risk.

Bitcoin Exposure: If bullish on Bitcoin, allocate 5–10% ($2,500–$5,000) to a spot Bitcoin ETF (e.g., BITO, 0.95% fee) instead of MSTR/MSTY to reduce leverage and corporate risks.

Why Not MSTR or MSTY?

MSTR: Offers 20–30% CAGR in a Bitcoin bull case but risks 70–90% losses in a bear case. Its 250% premium to Bitcoin holdings and debt burden make it a speculative bet, unsuitable for a retail investor’s core portfolio. A four-year horizon may not weather a prolonged Bitcoin downturn (e.g., 2022–2023).

MSTY: High dividends (20–30%) are attractive but taxed at 37%, reducing net returns to ~10–15%. Capped upside and capital loss risk (50–80% drawdown) make it inferior to MSTR for growth and riskier than equities for stability. Unsuitable for a four-year growth focus.

Alternative Considerations

If Conservative: Allocate 60% to VOO/VTI ($30,000) and 40% to GOVT (iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, $20,000) for 5–7% CAGR with lower volatility (10–12%). Reduces growth but protects against equity crashes.

If Income-Focused: Choose VIG (100% allocation) for 6–7% CAGR with 2% dividends, offering cash flow and lower volatility than VOO.

If Bitcoin Bullish: Allocate 80% to VOO ($40,000) and 20% to a Bitcoin ETF or MSTR ($10,000) for diversified growth with speculative upside. Avoid MSTY due to tax inefficiency.

Final Recommendation

Invest $50,000 in VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) for a balanced risk/reward profile, expecting ~6–8% CAGR ($62,000–$67,000 by 2029) with moderate volatility (15–20%) and high tax efficiency. This aligns with a retail investor’s need for growth, simplicity, and resilience over four years, outperforming bonds and avoiding the speculative risks of MSTR/MSTY. Use a tax-advantaged account if available, reinvest dividends, and hold through market fluctuations to maximize returns.

For further details, review VOO’s prospectus or consult a financial advisor to confirm alignment with personal goals and tax situation. If you have a strong Bitcoin conviction or prefer income, I can tailor the allocation further—please clarify your risk tolerance or preferences.

Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don't share information that can identify you.

Trump's influence, and Pierre's inability to quickly or effectively address Canadian's concerns regarding Trump were his downfall. Details such as constrained media access, lack of budget detail, and lack of detail in general in comparison to Carney's approach, were additional important contributors to Pierre's defeat by Mark Carney.

Bitcoin is the vaccine for fiat, and is best administered by sight and sound.

Warning, there are many side effects, such as bolstering world peace, more affordable living, increased time for family, etc….

The earliest reasonable date for the U.S. government to begin purchasing Bitcoin for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would likely be in the second half of 2025, based on current policy developments and administrative timelines.

Key Points Supporting This Timeline:

Executive Order and Policy Framework (March 2025):

On March 6, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, initially capitalized with Bitcoin seized through criminal or civil forfeiture proceedings. The order also authorizes the Treasury and Commerce Secretaries to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin, provided these strategies do not increase costs for taxpayers.

The order mandates a 30-day accounting of existing government Bitcoin holdings (by April 5, 2025) and requires agencies to review their authority to transfer Bitcoin to the reserve. This suggests initial groundwork is being laid, but no direct purchases are yet authorized.

Policy Research and Feasibility Studies:

The executive order and related discussions indicate that a President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets will evaluate strategies for Bitcoin acquisition, with recommendations expected by July 2025. This timeline aligns with the policy research phase needed to finalize procurement methods and legal frameworks.

The process involves coordination between the Treasury, Commerce Department, and potentially Congress, which could delay implementation until a clear strategy is approved.

Legislative Proposals:

The BITCOIN Act of 2024, introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis on July 31, 2024, proposes that the Treasury purchase 1 million Bitcoin over five years (approximately 200,000 BTC annually). While this bill has not yet gained traction, it suggests a structured acquisition plan that could begin after congressional approval, likely requiring months of debate and refinement.

The bill proposes funding through revaluing Federal Reserve gold holdings or redirecting Federal Reserve surplus funds, which would require legislative and regulatory alignment, further supporting a mid-2025 or later start.

Budget-Neutral Acquisition Strategies:

The executive order emphasizes budget neutrality, meaning no direct taxpayer funds would be used for purchases. Proposed methods include using profits from Federal Reserve operations, revaluing gold reserves, or accepting Bitcoin for taxes or tariffs. Developing and implementing these strategies will take time, likely pushing purchases to late 2025 or early 2026.

Historical precedent, such as gold reserve accumulation, shows that such strategies require careful planning to avoid market disruption or political backlash.

Market and Political Considerations:

Immediate large-scale purchases could spike Bitcoin’s price, creating market volatility and political criticism. The government is likely to adopt a gradual approach to avoid accusations of speculative investment or market manipulation.

Congressional approval may be needed for significant purchases, especially if they involve revaluing assets or redirecting funds, which could delay implementation until 2026 if opposition arises.

X Posts and Sentiment:

Posts on X reflect expectations of swift action, with some suggesting purchases could start as early as mid-2025 following policy finalization. However, these are speculative and not definitive evidence. For example, a post from March 2025 cites Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirming interest in a reserve, but no firm commitment to immediate purchases.

Other posts suggest a longer timeline, with purchases tied to legislative processes or strategic planning, aligning with the second half of 2025 or later.

Why Not Earlier?

Administrative Hurdles: The government must first complete an audit of existing holdings, establish custodial protocols, and finalize acquisition strategies, all of which are complex and time-consuming.

Legal and Congressional Oversight: Direct purchases or funding mechanisms may require congressional approval, especially if they involve significant sums or asset revaluation, which could face resistance.

Market Sensitivity: Sudden purchases could disrupt Bitcoin’s price, requiring a phased approach to minimize economic and political fallout.

Potential for Acceleration:

If the Treasury uses existing authorities, such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund, purchases could theoretically begin sooner (e.g., late Q2 2025) via an executive order bypassing Congress. However, this is less likely due to the emphasis on budget neutrality and the need for broader stakeholder buy-in.

Strong political will or market pressure from other nations accumulating Bitcoin could push the timeline forward, but this remains speculative.

Conclusion:

The second half of 2025 (July–December) is the earliest reasonable period for the U.S. government to begin purchasing Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, assuming policy research concludes by July 2025 and budget-neutral strategies are approved. Delays could push this to early 2026 if congressional approval or additional planning is required. This timeline balances administrative, legal, and market considerations while accounting for the government’s cautious approach to a volatile asset.

Bitcoin weather is glorious.

What % of btc on exchanges is available for purchase?

Grok says 10 to 50%:

Determining the exact percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) held on exchanges that is available for purchase is challenging, as it depends on real-time order book data, exchange-specific policies, and user behavior. However, I can provide insights based on available information and reasoning.

Key Points:

Bitcoin on Exchanges: As of recent data, approximately 13.05% to 17.1% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held on centralized exchanges, equating to roughly 2.5 to 3.4 million BTC.

Availability for Purchase: Not all BTC held on exchanges is available for immediate purchase. The amount available depends on:

Order Books: Only BTC listed in active sell orders (on the order book) is available for purchase at any given time. exchanges match buyers with sellers, and only the BTC in sell orders at or below the buyer's price can be bought.

Exchange Reserves: Some BTC may be held in exchange wallets but not listed for sale, as users may store BTC on exchanges without intending to sell immediately.

Liquidity: High liquidity on exchanges means more BTC is typically available for purchase without significantly impacting the price, but this varies by exchange and market conditions.

Historical Estimates: A 2020 estimate from Chainalysis suggested that only about 3.5 million BTC (19% of mined Bitcoin at the time) was actively used for trading, with the rest held long-term or lost. This implies that a subset of exchange-held BTC is actively tradable.

Recent Trends: Posts on X indicate that exchange balances are at multi-year lows (e.g., 2.5 million BTC in April 2025), suggesting that a smaller portion of BTC is available for trading due to accumulation by investors and institutions.

Estimation:

While precise figures for the percentage of exchange-held BTC available for purchase are not publicly reported, we can infer:

Only a fraction of the 2.5–3.4 million BTC on exchanges is listed in active sell orders at any moment. This could range from 10% to 50% of exchange balances, depending on market activity, user intent, and exchange liquidity.

For example, if 2.5 million BTC is held on exchanges, and assuming 20–30% is actively listed for sale (a rough estimate based on trading behavior), approximately 500,000 to 750,000 BTC might be available for purchase globally across exchanges at any given time.

Why It’s Hard to Pin Down:

Dynamic Order Books: Sell orders change constantly as users place or cancel trades.

Exchange Policies: Some exchanges may hold BTC for operational purposes or not make all user-held BTC available for trading.

Off-Chain Transactions: Some trades occur off-chain or over-the-counter (OTC), which aren’t reflected in public order books.

Regional Variations: Availability varies by exchange (e.g., Binance, Coinbase, Kraken) and region due to differences in user behavior and regulations.

Conclusion:

Roughly 10–50% of Bitcoin held on exchanges (approximately 250,000 to 1.7 million BTC out of 2.5–3.4 million) is likely available for purchase at any given time, based on typical trading behavior and order book dynamics. For a more precise figure, you would need to analyze real-time order book data from major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken. If you want, I can search for more recent data or analyze specific exchange order books (if available) to refine this estimate. Would you like me to do that?

Grok references 93M inflow being able to boost BTC price by 1%, hence trying to replicate MSTR's 50B BTC stash could boost BTC price by a multiple of 50B/93M or more than 5X the present BTC price.

The new consortium being headed by Jack Mallers or the USA govt may both do this, as aligned with the incentives of Howard Lutnick.

Compelling observations and questions from from Closer to the Edge Substack re Trump:

There is something rancid in America, a slow, creeping rot that smells like cold McDonald’s fries, aerosol hairspray, and the unmistakable musk of a country too sedated to recognize its own hostage situation. For years, the idea that Donald Trump was compromised by Russia was dismissed as paranoid fantasy—just another wild-eyed conspiracy theory, another overblown headline in the endless saga of American political dysfunction.

But now, two former Soviet intelligence officers—Alnur Mussayev and Yuri Shvets—are saying it outright: Trump was recruited by the KGB in 1987, groomed as an asset, and remains under Russian control to this day.

And the worst part? He’s already back in the White House.

That’s right, America. You did it. You walked face-first into the banana peel of history, slipped, and fell straight into the arms of Vladimir Putin. Trump was kicked out in 2020, spent four years plotting his comeback, and now he’s returned, like a bloated, orange cockroach that just won’t die. The Kremlin’s favorite stooge is running the country again, and this time, he knows exactly how to stay in power.

If you think this is just another round of the Trump Show, you’re not paying attention. This isn’t politics anymore. This is treason. This is foreign subversion. This is a goddamn coup in slow motion.

Let’s break it down, nice and simple.

Alnur Mussayev isn’t some Twitter conspiracy theorist with a tinfoil hat and a podcast. He’s the former head of Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee, which means he knows exactly how Russian intelligence works—because he was part of the system. And what he’s saying should make every American’s blood run cold.

According to Mussayev, Trump was identified, recruited, and compromised by the KGB in 1987 during his first trip to Moscow. They saw him for what he was: a narcissistic, greedy, attention-starved buffoon who could be easily manipulated. The KGB flattered him, promised him business deals, and planted the seeds of political ambition in his empty little head. And from that moment on, he was their man.

But Mussayev isn’t alone. Former KGB major Yuri Shvets said the exact same thing in 2021: Trump was cultivated by Soviet intelligence because he was an easy mark—too stupid to realize he was being played, too egotistical to care. They saw him as a useful idiot—a man who could one day be nudged into power, a walking, talking Trojan Horse for Russian interests.

And now? The plan has worked. Trump spent four years in office weakening America from within, got booted out, and now he’s back for round two.

If you had told the American public in 1962 that a Soviet-backed asset would one day sit in the White House, they would have burned Washington to the ground before letting it happen. But today? Nobody seems to care.

The media treats this like just another wacky subplot in the never-ending Trump reality show. Congress is too busy fighting over meaningless culture war nonsense to do anything about it. And the American public? Exhausted. Numb. Checked out. Years of scandals—Russia collusion, Ukraine blackmail, classified documents, tax fraud, sexual assault, an attempted coup—have fried the country’s brain like an overcooked steak at Mar-a-Lago.

Trump has done the impossible. He has committed so many crimes, so openly, so brazenly, that none of them matter anymore.

And now, with Mussayev’s revelation that Trump is an active foreign asset, we have finally reached the point where the biggest political scandal in American history is met with a collective shrug.

This is how democracy dies—not with a bang, but with a goddamn eye-roll.

This is the part where the skeptics start clutching their pearls. “Oh, come on,” they say. “If Trump were really a Russian asset, wouldn’t there be more proof?”

To which I say: Are you blind, or just willfully stupid?

Let’s go through the evidence, shall we?

Trump spent his entire first term doing exactly what Russia wanted. He attacked NATO, calling it “obsolete” and threatening to pull the U.S. out. He tried to blackmail Ukraine into manufacturing dirt on Joe Biden, because weakening Ukraine helps one man and one man only: Vladimir Putin. He pulled U.S. troops out of Syria, handing power over to Russian forces. He picked fights with Canada and Europe while cozying up to dictators.

Even now, in his second term, he is more openly pro-Putin than ever. He has made it clear that he will not protect NATO allies from Russian aggression. He is actively dismantling America’s alliances, just as Russia planned. And while Americans scream at each other over whether Target should sell rainbow t-shirts, Trump is quietly selling the country to the Kremlin.

At some point, you have to stop calling it a coincidence and start calling it what it is: treason.

The United States is running out of time. If Trump serves out this term without being removed, America as a functioning democracy is finished.

The media needs to wake up. Enough with the “Trump fatigue” excuse. This is not just another scandal—this is the single greatest infiltration of American power in history. Journalists need to dig into Mussayev’s claims, demand declassification of intelligence files, and treat this like the national emergency that it is.

Congress needs to subpoena Mussayev immediately. His testimony must be public, and every document he has should be reviewed. If there is proof that Trump has been compromised since the 1980s, the American people need to know.

The Justice Department needs to stop pretending that Trump is just another politician. If there is evidence that the sitting president of the United States is working in Russia’s interests, he must be removed from office and prosecuted for espionage.

And the American public? You have one last chance. This is not about Republican vs. Democrat. This is not about taxes, gas prices, or whatever nonsense outrage is dominating the news today. This is about whether the United States remains a sovereign nation, or if we spend the rest of the century as a Russian client state with a golf course.

The sheer volume of Trump's corruption, the blatant nature of his crimes, the mountain of evidence that should have ended his political career a hundred times over—none of it mattered. He survived it all, not because he was innocent, but because he drowned the country in so much scandal that nothing stuck.

But this time, it’s different. If Mussayev and Shvets are right, this isn’t just another chapter in the endless Trump circus. This is the culmination of a decades-long Russian intelligence operation to install an asset in the White House.

There is no coming back from this. If America lets Trump serve out this term without removing him, then the United States as a democratic republic is finished. The country won’t collapse overnight. There won’t be tanks in the streets. Instead, the destruction of democracy will happen in slow motion—buried under lawsuits, propaganda, and corruption so blatant that people stop caring.

If America lets this happen—if Trump is allowed to complete his mission—then Putin wins. The West crumbles. And the people who could have stopped it will look back, years from now, and wonder how they let it happen.

Good night, and good luck. Because if people don’t wake up, America is going to sleepwalk straight into its own funeral.