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Russ Miller
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I’m not sure what you’re saying. I made not statements of agreement or disagreement with the whether vaccines cause cancer or have other deleterious affects, just that this article has nothing to do with that.

Out of curiosity can you shoot me one link (don’t need 100s) of a source that you use that doesn’t agree with those two? I’m sure someone seeking truth is taking in many points of view. I sure do.

Heh. Forget the L you won’t take. Spend my afternoon on these captured dudes with some cool graphs. Nah.

Learn how to live with uncertainty and accept information from multiple sources. I’ve read these two people you frequently tout before. I also read those who have other perspectives.

Maybe be humble and admit a mistake once in a while.

Except what is that “historical average” they’re curve fitting to? Looks like a straight line where this is noting an increase 2000-2019. Your confirmation bias is showing. Take this new info and use it, don’t misinterpret the headline badly to apply it to your old theory.

I only opened this one link that did a napkin-math estimate that a top fund might need ~$5Billion (that wouldn’t need to be satisfied in one day) and daily volume is around $40Billion… but you track this stuff more than I do. https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-bitcoin-buy

Doesn’t solve your root problem but lots of ways to move text between Mac and iPhone (iCloud new shared clipboard is wonderful but guessing you don’t iCloud, however plenty of other options). Or just pair a Bluetooth keyboard with your phone.

Replying to Avatar Chris Liss

BELIEF

I used to wonder why people went to war over religion. So what if you bow to the elephant with 17 heads, and I worship a burning bush? Why does anyone care? But that was before I read Charles Peirce’s “Fixation Of Belief.”

In it he argues being uncertain, i.e., having a doubt, is a kind of discomfort or dissatisfaction. It’s unpleasant and irritating not to know, and just like an itch calls out for a scratch, a doubt calls out for its own kind of relief. That relief comes in the form of a belief.

A belief fills the uncomfortable void of doubt and puts one at ease — at least with respect to that particular decision or uncertainty. In my prior job, this dynamic could not have been clearer to me. The phone lines would light up during our “Chances To Win” radio segment wherein I would speculate on each caller’s likelihood of getting enough points (or his opponent failing to get enough) on Monday Night Football. Never mind the callers knew I was just making it up, and never mind that the game would go as it was always going to go, and nothing I said could change that. They lined up to hear their odds so they could quantify and therefore affix a belief to their chances, replacing the void of nebulous doubt and anxiety. Virtually no segment on the entire channel received so many calls.

If uncertainty for a few hours about one week of fantasy football could motivate so many to queue up on the off chance we’d get to their call, imagine the stakes when we’re talking about religion! Religion spans the gamut from how the universe came to be to where you might spend eternity. From the meaning of life to the proper way to raise your children. The doubt religion placates runs deeper than the Marianas Trench. Man has historically gone to great lengths and suffered immensely to affix durable religious beliefs over the cavernous uncertainties in his soul.

So if you, seemingly prosperous, intelligent and healthy person differ from me in certain core beliefs, you are a threat. Not only to turn others against me, but worse, to erode the beliefs I took such pains to affix over the dreaded void in my soul. If what you believe might be true, then what I believe might be false. And *might be* is a massive problem because it takes from me the hard-earned certainty that undergirds my entire life’s purpose.

Unless I upend my entire worldview (something of which few are capable/willing), I have no other choice but to destroy you. But because my self-identification as a good person forbids violence except in self-defense, first I must conjure up some grave offense you have committed against me. I am not thinking this consciously — in my mind, I am merely responding to an acute threat I feel in my bones and revulsion I experience when confronted with your unbelievably selfish and evil beliefs. The stakes are so high my brain manufactures the offense effortlessly. Your views are a violation, your existence a problem, and if I can’t kill you, at least I can shut you up or see to it you are excommunicated and viewed as a terrible person to whom no one would listen.

In 2022, at least in the west, many people do not subscribe to what we think of as religions per se. They might be nominally Catholic or Jewish, but those traditions only peripherally inform the most important pillars of their reality. Instead, many take their worldviews from their social, economic and political tribes, where things like for whom you voted, your views on masking or whether you took Pfizer’s latest have bizarrely become meaningful. (The particulars of what has significance are often dictated by mass media, and they could be, and increasingly are, arbitrary.) It sounds insane, but merely hearing that someone does not believe the new Pfizer shots are necessary, or that one prefers a different politician in office will often be perceived as a grave offense. “You are killing people with this tweet,” seems correct not because there is good (or any) evidence of a tweet killing people, but because “killing people” is the only language strong enough to match the emotion felt by the person reading it.

When we realize what’s at stake in this battle of worldviews — the fixation of beliefs to stem the dreadful uncertainty in a time of rapid and unsettling change, during which there has been a collapse of trust in institutions and an information ecosystem so polarized people often cannot even agree on the most basic premises — seemingly insane and inexplicable behavior makes more sense.

The person seeking to destroy you is revealing his own desperation. He needs to reaffirm his increasingly fragile sense of the world, and he feels he’s being righteous not only for himself but by protecting the epistemic foundations of his likeminded peers. He is on a crusade of sorts. The tell for religious fanatics on a crusade is that the end always justifies the means, for the end is the glory of God, so to speak, the triumph of what’s right and true and necessary, lest the whole world be plunged into the darkness, and by the darkness, I mean unfathomable, awesome, soul-destroying doubt from which we desperately seek r(b)elief.

If someone makes false claims about others, advocates for censorship, or argues others must be coerced to take medicine for the greater good, it is a tell. The reason citizens in western democracies have rights is precisely that this religious mindset, to which people are prone, has historically caused so much damage. Rights act as a failsafe, firm lines which, no matter the urgency of the cause, must not be crossed. In the end, we all want to assuage our doubts. We all want to be correct about our worldviews and the moral frameworks that allow us to view ourselves sympathetically. We want to feel good about ourselves, while navigating our lives in uncertain times.

But the difference between an earnest, openminded person and a dangerous fanatic is the willingness to suffer doubt, to face the anxiety that arises when others have different, even what we deem counterproductive or abhorrent, views. That doesn’t mean anyone likes it — tolerant people are invested in their beliefs too — but the threat to his worldview by competing ones is a discomfort to be borne by him, not a scourge by which to be offended and marked for eradication.

Tolerance, then, is literally a kind of emotional pain tolerance — the capacity to suffer through the prospect of doubt rather than stamping it out at all costs. And discomfort notwithstanding, an encounter with a dissident view is also an opportunity to ask oneself an important question, perhaps the most important if one wants to adapt and survive in the real world rather than simply optimize for emotional comfort: What if I’m wrong?

https://chrisliss.substack.com/p/belief

I always thought it was funny how you assume everyone calls up, gets an answer, and thinks “ok now I know, I brought the answer down from the mountain”. Most people I’ve known in my life grumble and argue with announcers and talking heads, I know I do. Listening to CtW and other start-sit segments was always a chance to test or tune my own mental model.

Replying to Avatar Real Man Sports

Week 8 Observations

I’m on vacation, writing this from a hotel in Spain. For God knows what reason, Heather arranged a 30-mile bike ride with some friends in the morning, and the place where we’re starting the ride is an hour drive away. So I have to write this now or never, before the second wave of games is even over.

The Giants season was already over, but I hate the Jets, and I really wanted the Giants to win that game. Brian Daboll blew it, though it wasn’t his fault Graham Gano shanked a 35-yard field goal, even though I would have gone for it on 4th-and-1 instead. (That was a 50/50 call.)

The really bad decision was winning the coin toss and choosing to receive in overtime. What the fuck was he thinking? His third-string QB, Danny Devito, wasn’t capable of a forward pass, and you want to receive the ball, the only upside of which is being able to win with a TD after a long drive you have to mount solely on the ground while the Jets know you’re running every play? Why not elect to kick off, play defense where you have the advantage, receive a punt and play for a game-winning field-goal? Just senseless to receive in that situation.

I nearly threw my laptop against the wall after the Adoree’ Jackson PI set up the game-winning FG for the Jets.

Kayvon Thibodeaux looked like Lawrence Taylor out there. It was the one silver lining of the game.

Darren Waller inconsiderately aggravated his hamstring injury early in the game, sidling me with a zero in three leagues. Draft players with the decency to get injured in the fourth quarter. To Waller’s credit he still led the Giants in receiving with four yards.

Gano missed another FG, a 47-yarder on 4th-and-1, attempted before Tyrod Taylor got hurt. You don’t try a 47-yarder on 4th-and-1.

Garrett Wilson is a top-five real-life NFL receiver. He’s right there with Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown and Ja’Marr Chase. He just needs a quarterback.

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are showing up big time for me after my Primetime team is probably drawing dead. I’ve made the right call the last few weeks after the debacle where I subbed out Brock Purdy for Dak at the last second. Now I don’t look at any rankings and just go by my own instincts. Too little, too late, though.

I’ve complained about my Travis Etienne for Amari Cooper and (TE) Taysom Hill trade in the RotoWire keeper league, but (a) Hill has been very good lately; and (b) my team sucks, so I moved Cooper, Terry McLaurin, Joe Mixon and Kirk Cousins (who got hurt today) for Jonathan Taylor and three scrubs. I probably lost that trade too, but my team isn’t in it this year, and no one except Jake Letarski (the guy who made the deal with me) was offering me anyone good for my aging stars. You have people offering you scrubs and draft picks, thinking you’re just going to hand them four starters in a 14-team league, so I was happy to get one serious building block for them. Taylor is all the way back now too.

I’ve been good against the spread of late — so-so, so far this week — because I’ve been able to feel the inflection points of teams. I had the Pats +9.5 initially but switched them out for the Panthers +3 at the last minute. I had liked the Texans initially, but felt they might overlook the winless Panthers, and the Panthers would be able to hang with an upstart. Forget about the net-adusted-YPP nonsense — so few people have an edge there — and focus on the ebbs and flows, the pulse. It’s possible to get a read on it.

The Football Team had the cover in good order, blew it, then heroically rallied for the push.

If the injuries to Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and even Kenny Pickett are serious, that’s a lot of top receivers left without their quarterbacks.

AJ Brown got his sixth-straight 125-yard game, the first time that’s ever happened. He’s a monster and made an amazing one-handed TD grab in the game too. But picking 125-yards as the benchmark is pretty arbitrary. Who has the record for most consecutive 75-yard games? What about 78?

The Saints have a lot of weapons on offense, but they spread it around, and they do so even at QB with Hill coming in so much near the goal line.

As usual, the long-distance kicking this week was bananas. Joey Slye kicked a 56-yard FG at the end of the first half, but it was called back on a false-start penalty, so he drilled a 61-yarder instead. Cowboys rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey kicked a 58-yarder and Harrison Butker hit one from 56. I’m the sucker who drafted the original Justin Tucker, but now it’s everyone in the league, except him (and the Giants’ Gano.)

I have the Chargers in Survivor tonight in my home pool (wanted the Lions, but didn’t realize I had already used them), so wish me luck. With the Chargers, you always need — and rarely get — it.

Wait… on vacation from what?

Wish I could be more helpful. I guess my thought is “there’s a LOT” but I’ll keep an eye out for anything that tries to break any particular aspect down.

Late response... I couldn't find an old textbook on PC architecture that was written for a business MIS class (still relevant but not as network oriented as you're probably looking for, anyway). I also have a tab open to MIT OpenCourseware (because I'm looking to dig in deeper on discrete math) which may have some more or less practical info. How Stuff Works books seem fairly useful, FWIW. But for this specific topic, websockets and web security, here's how I, a 25 year web professional, understood it:

- Huh never heard of websockets (reminds me of winsock, that's something else)

- Oh I see it's a new protocol, either a replacement of http(s) or it runs over it?

- Seems to emphasize two-way traffic (server can push data) so maybe it's faster

- Chris said it's more secure, but my search response titles seem to lean the other way.

Underlaying those, here's the "intranet infrastructure" knowledge I bring to the game:

- Computers network communications are layered, from wire signals up to app protocols. I don't have all those memorized AT ALL, order or boundaries, but I can tell you about a handful of major protocol types users know from browsers or other clients, I have seen some in packet sniffers that give you a feel for how the data gets represented, I've configured firewalls to all traffic through which helps me understand TCP/UDP streams and initiating (client) versus receiving (server) traffic and how computers map services/communication to ports, I've configured some protocols on servers (mostly HTTP(S) such that I know how to set versions and cipher suites for encryption). I suppose I've seen physical reresentations of electric sugnals and made my own ethernet wires so principles of interference and cuz I'm old I've seen network cards that get installed to change voltage to data... and I've seen DIFFERNT network cards (e.g. token ring) and learned enough without using them to know that there are different ways to control and coordinate communications over the wires.

- I know from reading about HTTP/2, the newer version of HTTP which I had to update (via minor configuration change in a file, no big whoop) in some places that there are SMART PEOPLE(tm) continually thinking about these protocols all the time tweaking handshakes and prefetches and many other things to make them faster and more secure. I just use them, and can do so without knowing any of this, or I can look up RFCs or other details to find out more.

- TLS (Transport Layer Security) provides the S in HTTPS, and it is sort of a wrapper around the HTTP data that gets streamed. It has versions, it can get updated, it can use specific encryptions. I don't know any of those maths but I know there are eyes on these things and newer almost always better.

- Seems like the security of websockets vs https isn't a clear thing from a preliminary search, they both use TLS which seems like a tie... and if it results lean one way it isn't to the new one. This is one of those things that you have to nose around, hear some arguments, put the discussion in the context it was offered, etc.

So, if the root of your question was to sort out if a statement on that security topic was correct, I can tell you as someone who has worked in and near it all -- I would be doing similar things to verify. I might have an edge on verifying some statements but who knows. Let me know if you get any good book/site recomendations.

Oh I see - I totally respect that. I’ve always thought people should know How Things Work as much as possible. Your car, your microwave, city sewers, cement. All fascinating stuff but there is… so much. I’ve got a ton of thoughts and no one book on the topic springs to mind.

You already know the right process - pick topics and projects that interest you and read about them as well as lurk in forums discussing them.

I’ll do some more thinking and research tomorrow and see if I come up with anything.

Oh boy. Is there an aspect you specifically want more info on? I’m pretty well-versed in protocol-level (90s-teens) internet, but minimally versed in intra- (acks and handshakes and packet flow diagrams) or sub- (seven layer model, layer2 vs layer3 firewalls) -protocol details. If you’re looking for math on how internet routing works it’s very different than, say, TLS cryptography. And the wrong book on either is more likely to be drily technical than societally illuminating.

In many ways computers are designed to black box items “below” your need-to-know also. Principles like “routing around damage” or “information wants to be free” aren’t always technical at all but the implementations are.

There are a lot of ways to use the protocol amongst a limited, known, well-behaved group. As soon as you talk about it as an internet-scale service, controls are needed. Options and transparency are what makes it free not some magic of the protocol. People set up servers that get locked out of general delivery all the time.

Replying to Russ Miller

FWIW internet email worked fine for decades when all that were using it were well-behaved academics. But once commercial interests saw an angle, a lot of layers of protection were added. Domain verification (DKIM and SPF), inbound SPAM filters (that scan messages for unwanted content) and even blacklists (https://kb.smtp.com/article/997-the-3-most-common-email-blacklists).

The internet very quickly went from open protocols to various kinds of editorial choices. Without them the vast majority of I’ll of information is very difficult to use.

The savior here is many people at many points in the chain making editorial decisions as openly as possible, not pretending we function (at scale) without them.

*vast amount of

Replying to Avatar Chris Liss

From April:

Substack was important during the pandemic because Twitter, Facebook et al. went all-in on censorship, while Substack remained tolerant of dissident speech. But, being centrally controlled, Substack is a half-measure. Yes, you can take the emails with you, but it’s still a social media company trying to keep you ensconced in its ecosystem to the point where you’re loath to leave. Moreover, most readers follow multiple Substacks replete with their payment information, so it’s not a trivial ask to get them to sign up and put credit card info into yet another platform.

The full measure is nostr, which is a protocol rather than a platform. I wrote about it on my site today:

4/27/23: Made a long Twitter thread on Twitter about the problems with Twitter. Ironic I'm linking back to it here, but I don't have anything against Twitter per see, except that it's a dystopian social credit-score hellscape run by the Antichrist himself. Seriously, though I still like Twitter (and Musk himself because he wouldn't be the Antichrist if you didn't like him!), but it's unwise to build your house on a weak foundation. That Twitter can ding me because other people (with whom I don't even interact) decide they don't like my posts, or because someone, who serially spread misinformation for years, unilaterally decided what I posted was "misinformation" makes it unstable. You can be arbitrarily rugged at any time and for no good reason.

To that end, I'm posting more here and also on nostr, which is a protocol, not a platform. The difference is no one controls it the way no one controls SMTP - - there is no one who can buy email itself and prevent you from sending any. Someone can own Gmail or Protonmail, but not email, and similarly someone can own Twitter or Facebook but not nostr. That means no social credit score, no censorship and a marketplace of ideas.

The problem for me is no one follows me there, so I'm posting into the void, but if I had even 50 followers, it would be worth it, and that's my aim for now. It's also IMO the future, and it's a good idea to get in early. I wish I had gotten into Twitter early, and I wish I hadn't waited until 2015 to start a podcast, but it's still early for nostr.

https://chrisliss.substack.com/p/nostr

FWIW internet email worked fine for decades when all that were using it were well-behaved academics. But once commercial interests saw an angle, a lot of layers of protection were added. Domain verification (DKIM and SPF), inbound SPAM filters (that scan messages for unwanted content) and even blacklists (https://kb.smtp.com/article/997-the-3-most-common-email-blacklists).

The internet very quickly went from open protocols to various kinds of editorial choices. Without them the vast majority of I’ll of information is very difficult to use.

The savior here is many people at many points in the chain making editorial decisions as openly as possible, not pretending we function (at scale) without them.