Idk anybody that has touched the base layer that isn’t addicted. My problem is with the people that can’t tell the difference between leaving bitcoin on an exchange and ppl that actually have have their own keys.

#asknostr nostr:note1mk8ccusdcchw32kc3xyhpw43wply5e44l08wyej0spduc505520qxanw3v

Ever since around 2013/2014, bitcoin’s price has closely followed the rate of change in the growth of global broad money supply (M2) in USD terms.

In other words, from the perspective of macro investors (which are generally different than network users), it is the asset that best serves as a pure-play on changes in global liquidity. It’s a hedge against monetary inflation, not CPI inflation.

Notably, the dollar index relative to other major currencies strongly affects global monetary inflation.

So in order to have a view on price within any intermediate term timeframe (eg the people calling for new ATH prior to the next halving), it’s important to have a view on global monetary inflation and liquidity, because that is primarily where new external demand comes from.

Right now, bitcoin is a coiled spring on the supply side (fast money is out, coins have rotated towards strong illiquid hands), but the demand side (and thus the price) is largely a question of global liquidity.

GM! ☕️ How are you today? I woke up older today 😂 but what can you do?

It is my Birthday today 🎉🥳.

Thank you so much for all wishes, I didn't expect it 🥲 I wish you all a fantastic day and thank you once again! 💜😂🫶🏻🥳🎉

If this view is engrained in memories from your childhood, you're probably alright.

I love old park equipment, it was the best. The new, plastic shit, sucks.

#grownostr

#nostr

#slidestr

#photography

#Bitcoin Rules.

Why is the Federal Reserve's inflation target 2%?

Because they want inflation to be low grade theft. At 2% it takes 34 years to dilute the value of the currency by 50%.

On generational timescales, theft becomes quaint. It feels good to reminisce about "the good ol' days" when you could see a movie for a dollar or enjoy a night out on the town for 20 bucks.

Whereas when you remember being able to buy a week's worth of groceries for $100 a few years ago, the memory spurs anger and despair. This is dangerous to the overlords...

I don't have the clip at the moment, but I just hopped off an on-air Fox Business segment about bitcoin. Normally when Fox's Charles Payne interviews me we talk macro, but this time we talked oil and bitcoin.

Let's just say you aren't the only one with your keys if you use ledger 👎

I had three pairs of glasses. One of them broke, and one of them I left at a restaurant during a bitcoin-related business/academic meeting. The last one is half-broke, like it works decently enough but the left hinge is busted and opens too wide, and so it doesn't stay on my head as well as it should.

I usually prioritize my glasses poorly because I only wear them when driving or when I need to read things at a distance (e.g. walking around an airport or other unfamiliar environment). I purposely only wear them when I have to, and do my best to do eye exercises and such in other times, to avoid getting too dependent on them. As a result I tend not to take very good care of them.

I have a pair of prescription sunglasses too, so I've been wearing them, including in some contexts where it's not quite normal (e.g. inside). It ends up feeling like an awkward version of The Matrix.

Before I go to Egypt for the late summer, I scheduled an appointment for an eye exam and a new multi-set of glasses. Most places around me were booked for a full month (labor shortage). With one place that was open, I scheduled weeks in advance but then one eye doctor got into an accident and and their whole schedule changed. So there were *no* eyeglass places within a reasonable distance of me that could do an eye exam, prescribe and manufacture new glasses before I go to Egypt.

So I'm just kind of going there with a busted normal pair of glasses and then my sunglasses, which I'm increasingly getting used to using in abnormal places. I'll probably be walking around the airport in sunglasses. Maybe when I'm there I can get new ones, or just wait until I get back.

Back during COVID, when we all needed tests before travel, I always found it easier to get tests in Cairo than in New Jersey. The US tests were like, "okay we can get them to you in 48-72 hours" which was awkward because the government+airline was like, "we need tests within the past 72 hours". So there was this weird window where they get it to you just in time... or they don't. I had to get a second emergency test for like 10x the cost once, with high stress and extra activity right before the flight, because the first test was too slow and missed their 72-hour timeframe. But in Cairo I could always get one within 24-36 hours without issue.

Anyway, that's my current version of first world problems. Heading to Egypt with broken glasses, and the Egyptian system might ironically fix this faster than I can here in New Jersey. Everything feels weird due to labor shortages.