Profile: dfa94a58...

I'm waiting for the first hardware wallet supply chain attack. Will send shockwaves

This is extremely important. For 500 years mercantile plunder of the resources rich developing countries was unstoppable. When the jackals were called in a frigate or aircraft carrier arrived off the coast and the dissenting country was bombed back to the stone age. Relatively cheap missile tech, available to almost everyone, puts a stop to this. Brave new world, indeed. Now the mercantilists go bust.

I have to send a written , hand signed, id imaged , request to unlock my bank account, but I have to fax it !!! I literally cannot find a fax machine and can't be bothered with a software hack.

I think they're trying to tell me "you cannot unlock your acct" , without them actually saying it.

Btc self custody fixes this BS.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

In a geometrically expanding debt system where interest on debt owed on one loan must be paid from new debt, it is not possible to stop the debt expansion , except for some very temporaryy moments, unless you want to crater the economy. The choice is inflate to be moon ,and eventually hyperinflate, or crater the economy.

Holding a debt free instrument like bitcoin, you just have to be patient. Wait and the value will come to you.

Gradually , then suddenly. We are far closer to suddenly than gradually.

Replying to Avatar jack

Rust must certainly be better than the current bitcoin dev language C++ . Linus Torvalds, inventor of linux and with kernel development, he is using Rust ! Linus is a legendary stickler for simplicity, efficiency and accuracy and reckons C++ is a nightmare that he wouldn't a touch.

Well, well , well. Look familiar ? Bittorrent's bleep. It died , I think because the feds took over the bittorrent company and then killed off this idea. Probably too much if a threat ? There may be open source forks out there ?

"With BitTorrent Chat, there aren't any "usernames" per se. You don't login in the classic sense. Instead, your identity is a cryptographic key pair. To everyone on the BitTorrent Chat network at large, you ARE your public key. This means that, if you want, you can use Chat without telling anyone who you are. Two users only need to exchange each other's public keys to be able to chat. "

https://engineering.bittorrent.com/2013/12/19/update-on-bittorrent-chat/

Why can't torrents be used for social media ? We need intelligent clients using vast amounts of data moved around the network. The former is not the problem and torrents alread achieve the latter. Torrents also achieve storage redundancy giving resilience and state.

I think his is correct. Everyone is a node/relay by default. Meshtastic meshnet radio works like this.

What about xmpp, bittorrent as base p2p network ? Proven for decades to be able to move tons of data. Bitrrorrent for years was more than 1/2 of all internet traffic. Still huge

I like much of what Thatcher stood for, however, we should never forget that during her (and Reagan's) financial Big Bang they sold off many public utilities to their mates in Walls St and London, probably for pennies, and their deregulations set the stage for derivatives to go ballistic. To the point that they are now a systemic risk.

In principle, unless we have central directories, relays that are run decentrally by anyone with an interest in securing the peer to peer network , should be good

No ? I don't know the exact functionality of these relays. That functionality may be the problem.

Replying to Avatar Beautyon

Socialists are terribly boring. So are cowards who shirk their duty to protect others under the cloak of “Decentraluzation” and faddish crap that’s going to get everyone killed.

Only the most delusional reality denier thinks that good, strong leadership is a bad thing, and that leaders together can’t fix many big problems.

It’s easy to hide here and pretend that other people are not real, and that the few examples of strong leadership have not changed the world in the last year. Or throughout the 20th Century. Do I have to list them? Honestly, people are very dim these days!

Thankfully anti business infantilism doesn’t matter in the long run, because there are enough strong leaders to face the facts and force change through decision making to get us out of this mess.

There is nowhere to run from reality. I’ve been consistent about running away and hiding in Nostr being a bad thing. It’s like sitting on the cure for cancer because the group has not decided eliminating cancer is a good thing.

If people don’t act to protect their rights and the rights of others, then very bad outcomes are the result. This should be obvious to even the most simple people.

The fact that this has to be said in 2024 is terrifying and it would be “Game Over” were it not for the small number of people for whom others are real and not imaginary, and the big picture is at least partially in view.

Should all the CEOs get together to punish the EU and any other country that dares to violate people’s rights (Julian Assange anyone?) the world will change forever.

Unless of course you are one of those people who don’t want any problem to be solved, who actually enjoyed and vampirically thrived on Assange being imprisoned, and who lives to create or extend the life of problems because problems are the centre of your life; being the permanent “rent a mob” class like Occupy Wall Street, Get Kony, Stop Oil that turns up everywhere to protest and destroy because being in opposition is your life, not solving problems when you have the ultimate power to do so.

But I suspect you have no power at all, and would hate a world where it was impossible for Julian Assange to be persecuted, Wall Steet to steal or dictators to murder. You would not be free to vote for imbeciles who are for war, inflation and tyranny…because…then…what would you put in your Profile bio?

Starting a new , parallel market of economy, ideas, money, education and in the process defunding the current oligopoly IS the solution. Fighting a head to head war is the dumb option with no resolution except the deaths of billions.

Tim May knew :

https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/timothy-c-may-crypto-anarchist-manifesto

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

The complicated aspect about the Social Security system in the United States is that it was falsely marketed.

It's called an "entitlement" because people pay into it and are supposed to get it back like a pension, regardless of whether they are rich or poor when they retire. And so the Baby Boomer generation views any cuts to their social security as a rugpull, basically. It's not insurance or charity; it's an entitlement.

However, although it was marketed as like an entitlement/pension, that's not how the math worked out in practice. And it's because population growth is slowing. It was based on ponzi math, assuming that every generation will be bigger than the one that came before it. But the Baby Boomer generation was huge.

In addition, when Social Security was created, the retirement age was set near the average life expectancy. Many people would not live long enough to collect it, and most would collect it for a handful of years. Only a small minority of outliers would work for like 40 years and then live off social security for like 20+ years. But then over the decades, life expectancy increased by like 15 years, so the default assumption is indeed that someone can work for 40 years and then have 20+ years of retirement, even though the amount they pay into it doesn't really mathematically cover that. It's not designed for that en masse.

And so Baby Boomers had like a 3.5 worker-to-retiree ratio to support in their peak earnings years, while Millennials will have more like a 2.5 worker-to-retiree ratio or less to deal with. Which means they get a worse deal. Many Millennials don't even think they'll get it at all, despite paying into it.

That breaks up the social contract and sets up inter-generational political conflict. "Fourth Turning" stuff.

It's a big reason why "defined benefit" plans are inherently unstable; they rely on being able to predict the future.

And it's also a big reason why, when speaking about deficits, nothing stops this train.

Social security is a huge Cantillon scam. The govt and their fascist cronyies on wall st get your money today at full value and give it back to you as inflated , devalued money sometime in the future. They throw you some bones from interest and investment returns, but the big returns go to Wall St. Anyone relying on Social Security when they retire is screwed.