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Josh
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A little bit hippy a little bit hillbilly.
Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

One of the crazy things about AI and robotics is that in the year 2025, most people still don't use Roombas or other robotic vacuum cleaners.

They're useful in many contexts, but they're not clearly better across most metrics than a human with a vacuum cleaner yet. They've been out for a very long time, gradually improving. And that's one *very specific* task with pretty clear visualization requirements and floor mobility requirements and pretty low safety thresholds with high repetition levels, and yet that market isn't dominated by robotics yet.

That's an example of why I continue to view white collar computer-work AI as being *way* ahead of in-the-field blue collar robotic AI in terms of competing with human jobs.

The moment where it's a joke to buy a human-powered vacuum instead of a robot vacuum, rather than a debatable trade-off, is kind of the canary in the coal mine moment for consumer robotics. We can't even nail that yet, but once we do, it's kind of a floodgate moment, considering how long that task has been in the works for, and it will probably quickly expand to other areas following that moment.

That's kind of my basic test for robot hype. Yes, they're getting better and better. Yes, they do backflips now. Yes, it's a big deal. But in-the-field blue collar skilled work is a really high bar, and we haven't fully cleared the "vacuum carpeted areas of the same house floor area over and over" stage of that yet.

Everything is kind of hype until that stage is fully breached. Then it's off to the races.

What's your view of that heuristic?

That’s the best heuristic I’ve seen. One could argue it’s a small sample size or anecdotal, but roombas reached a fairly main stream recognition an awful long time ago. I’m definitely going to have to borrow this the next time someone tells me my construction company is going to be screwed within 10 years because the robots are coming. Once the robots can vacuum floors without accidentally smearing dog shit all over, I’ll take the threat a touch more seriously. Until then, I’ll continue to utilize new tech to my make my company more competitive.

Finished up a nice little Saturday project today. It’s a new goat stand so we can more easily work with our bucks and wethers. Hoping to turn some of them into packers at some point! #grownostr

Great name! Mine is named after Dolly Parton, cause she does whatever the hell she wants🤣

If you voted for the dude, this should be all you’re worried about until Ross is free.

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Dusty and Dolly say Good Morning. ☀️🌞😃

Yup. Don’t know what’s in that magic stuff, but they rarely do ok without it.

I agree. And if they’re down, it increases the percentage of a mortgage that goes to taxes and insurance

Looks more to me like the effects of artificially dropping interest rates. Which would then lead to inflation