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Interested in politics, economics, Bitcoin and trying to monitor the increasing government overreach. #Democracy #Freedom

I support #Italexit, #Frexit, #Spanexit, #Grexit: I wish for european citizens to realise that they've been had, that they have given away so much power to the central goverment in Bruxelles that they are already very far embarked on the road to serfdom. Many consider falsely that the #EU is liberal, ultra-liberal, whatever that means. It's not. It's the result of decades of socialism that once again lead us to a form of totalitarianism. The true nature of socialism isn't to be more caring or driven by egalitarian ideals. It's to centralise power ever more until we reach one of the inevitable outcomes, call it communism or fascism. They are both the result of the restriction of individual freedoms. "The generation to which we belong is now learning from experience what happens when men retreat from freedom to a coercive organisation of their affairs. Though they promise themselves a more abundant life, they must in practice renounce it; as the organised direction increases, the variety of ends must give way to uniformity". Walter Lippmann. Isn't this precisely what the EU is doing? spreading uniformity and hampering diversity hence human progress and value creation?

You were locked in and injected for your own good you racist, homophobic conspiracy theorist! #irony

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

Short term we have the PBOC expanding it's balance sheet and headwinds for the $ it seems first with Yelen wanting to weaken it and then with a possible trump election. Would you agree the $ will likely keep correcting going forward? The way I understand it is it will likely waken in the short term whilst in the longer run, according to Brent Johnson's milkshake theory, it likely will appreciate against other currencies as providing liquidity is just postponing the issues and the fiat world relying on debt should see demand for $ increase. Also the PBOC increasing liquidity should be good for chinese growth stocks right? BABA, JD, Baidu are sitting on long term support levels right now. And then comes geopolitics into the equation! https://substack.com/inbox/post/148274820?utm_medium=ios

Another victim of the forever war supported by the democrats, ready as they are to "fight to the last ukrainian".

"Russia's bloodthirsty war in Ukraine" frol the article. It pains me to hear people completely misdjuge what's going on in Ukraine, especially people who are otherwise so literate in BTC and freedom. Give Jeffrey Sachs a listen! https://youtu.be/JS-3QssVPeg?si=4kx0HjlbGoQqBEtU

Wouldn't it be cool to build a decentralized map system whereby we can stop feeding google's algorythms? what would that entail?

US debt in pictures. Every new $ of debt produces only $0.58 of GDP compared to $10 in the 60s or $4 in 2000.

Debtor countries versus less indebted ones.

A pattern emerges. The West versus the BRICS although Brazil is quite indebted.

I came to understand neither France nor any other country has ever been a democracy. But at times mankind got closer to the ideal. Now we're living at a time of centralisation of power and steering away from the power of the people, by the people, for themselves.

Another reminder that #censorship in the western world is alive and kicking!

The EU is a dictatorship that hides it's game behind virtue signaling. The centralisation of power( the EU commission is unelected and extremely powerful), the censorship ( RT, Sputnik, Twitter), the corruption ( Ursula's sms dealings to buy Pfizer vaccines) all contribute to liken it to a communist style totalitarian regime. It's the result of decades of propaganda towards a population mostly convinced the EU and the € are good for growth and preserve peace! Reality turns out to be exactly opposite. The € ihas never been suited to many different economies, too expensive for southern states and to cheap for germany when it was industrialised. And we can all appreciate the warmongerers among the EU leaders without whom the war in Ukraine would have lasted two weeks instead of over 2 years.

One year ago, I was a frequent consumer of American right-wing alternative media, like Dave Rubin, Jordan Peterson, Steven Crowder, Tucker Carlson. I mostly agreed with most of the issues they were talking about. I was concerned about woke cancel culture and the loss of free speech. I also listened to Alan Dershowitz (life-long democrat), Redacted News, Kim Iversen, Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, Viva Frei and some other non-right-wing sources.

After Al-Aqsa flood on Oct 7 where Hamas successfully executed a well planned military operation in Israel, where I saw a deeply long-term and continually oppressed people finally get a modicum of revenge on the people oppressing them and also strategically capture some hostages (Israel had about 3000 Palestinian hostages at the time, so tit-for-tat) --- because I knew the context well before the event happened --- they (the American right) instead saw horrible terrorist sub-human violent people out-of-the-blue raping, incinerating and cutting heads off of babies (which I couldn't believe, so I watched many hours of videos to see what actually happened, and that was propaganda - the vast majority killed were military).

Anyhow, I couldn't stomach listening to Dave Rubin, Jordan Peterson (who tweeted "Glass Gaza"), Steven Crowder or Alan Dershowitz after that (and many others) despite believing that we should try to listen to all sides, I just couldn't stomach it. And I'm consuming less social media video content overall which is a good thing. I still listen to Tucker Carlson who I haven't heard push the Zionist stuff.

But I guess I'm moving towards the left on more than just the Israel issue (or maybe I'm standing still and they are moving). What I thought I knew about immigration and culture clash I don't think I believe anymore. And this video shifted my thinking more substantially than most videos do. Many of you may disagree with this, but it will get you thinking nonetheless: https://rumble.com/v5bbf0t-uk-headed-for-civil-war-whos-behind-it-all-redacted-w-natali-and-clayton-mo.html

Historically I've felt like I was on Tommy Robinson's side, because I was on the side of free speech. But the situation is more complicated than just one political issue.

I used to ba a socialist and after reading Milton Friedman, Hayek, and more importantly Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged, after going down tge BTC rabbit hole and discovering in it the principles of Austrian economics, I understand socialism is a dead end that we should avoid at all costs. The issue of Israel is a seperate issue to me, it should be independant from our politics, it's being forced down our throats.

I can't wait to watch it! however peter MacCormack has proven he falls for the western narrative on #Ukraine in his recent podcasts and I can't help but find him simple minded since then. Nevertheless he does produce good content with great interviewees!

That's the main reason I hardly spend any time on twitter. #NOSTR is mostly good vibes for me so far: it'bitcoin centric so I guess it's a reflection of the bitcoin community.

hey, no, i was just giving a definition for stockholm syndrome. I think it's quite obvious Biden has dementia from his old age and that he's not pulling any strings. The deepstate he represents has nothing to gain from his condition except that he be a better puppet than most. Democrats are deploying a lot of efforts to minimize his weeknesses, I fail to understand how anyone could not see the harsh truth here. Do you think his many other blunders were acted too?