I think as hard as the fed tries, they are going to hit a brick wall with the government needing to spend more on interest payments, theyll have to pivot. Its a falling wedge with massive inflation on one side and a black swan deflationary contagion event on the other, they are trying to get down from inflation now but will soon be headed back up to avoid contagion, their room to operate is shrinking as the wedge closes in. My thinking is that it will break to the upside with inflation because thats all politicians know how to do, and whatever autonomy the fed enjoys now will be thrown out the window.
Im sure, but total interest payments will continue to rise if im taking a bet on it.
Why impossible? We could reach a point where interest payments exceed all other government spending combined, healthcare and education will be shit, but im confident the government can get it done. We could have the majority, why not all tax revenue go to servicing the debt? The streets will be filled with roving criminal gangs and you wont have electricity at home, but theyll just blame it on the rich and corporations as always. We could exceed total tax revenue in servicing debt, thats a goal to aspire too, they can issue an unlimited number of bonds to make payments on bond debt. What, you think you can escape? The banks have to buy their bonds, the central bank will buy the bonds for yield curve control, the roads will be gravel and the water will be sewage, but its all in the name of protecting the economy.
This isnt a reasonable comparison, one processes and stores far more value than the other. If monero had the userbase bitcoin did, with your dynamic block sizes, running a full node would be difficult and a centralizing force.
You would, because lightning channels allow you to connect with almost anyone on the market, send and receive with low fees. Of course lightning itself wont scale to billions of people in its current state either, its like the double entry ledger to the physical movement of gold (on chain transactions).
Bitcoin blocks only carry a few thousand transactions every ten minutes. Even if we amp that up with more advanced scripting like cross input signature aggregation we wont be able to fit everything in 1+3MB. If we had 8 billion people on chain that would translate to every person making a transaction once every 30 years. You could increase the block size, but then you would need something on the order of 30GB blocks being sent every 10 minutes, data storage for almost anyone would be impossible so only a select few would be able to run nodes, killing our decentralization. Further, what would be the incentive to not keep increasing the block size and starving the miners of fees? You would end up with a very easy network to attack, be it nodes censoring or hashpower attacks.
I dont support daniels take, i think its great you are here, i hope you guys find a way to use monero over nostr or something. Just laying out some of the facts of creating a global monetary system.
I remember reading about a market in somalia that organized piracy missions, you could invest anything from money to an RPG, if they were successful then the investors would receive a cut. Thats what I need.
Im inclined to agree, bitcoins perfection can be seen in the fact that its very difficult to create profitable financial products on top, anything that can be done with money alone is saturated by bigger and better players.
But I could make more by simply working overtime at work, trading hours for money. I need leverage on something i have that people want, like capital, knowledge, organizational skills. I just feel boxed in.
Where do you find leverage (not leveraged trading, leveraging capital) in bitcoin if you dont have a lot of money/bitcoin? Bitcoin makes it hard to find profit. I experimented with Jam joinmarket this weekend and got zero hits; there are people who have a good amount pumped into a fidelity bond and they probably get some traffic, but they must have a decent amount to play with and are very efficient. For users/consumers this is great, low fees for a reliable service; for people looking to make some sats on the side this sucks, there is no room for you to casually engage with it. Not saying its bad, thats the way its supposed to work, all to the benefit of the consumer. Same with a lightning node, havent set one up *yet*, but aside from some security guarentees you get there dont seem to be an incentive too unless you have a ton of capital; great for users, discouraging for casuals. If bitcoin became the money tomorrow, all ive got is my stack, I feel like I have nothing to contribute outside of my basically physical labor.
I think so, the economy is how people in society coordinate, and a free market economy is the only moral answer, as opposed to immoral centralized control. With a moral basis for human interaction I would expect people being more driven by morality to follow.
Of course, before government took over, we saw churches coordinating charity efforts, and individuals of extreme wealth contributing greatly to charity. Without a government to supplant the role of religion I think you would see a larger focus on religion.
There are also the rates of disability that I would assume would be far lower given the end to farming subsidies, accountability for companies that spill dangerous chemicals to the property owners who were poisoned, a higher level of individual level scrutiny around medical products. Having an FDA and EPA provides a false sense of security that any of these things are ok, and provides legal defense to the perpetrator so long as their agencies rules are followed, as opposed to these companies having to factor things like side effects or accidents into their pricing models.
I notice it everywhere, its unsettling, having always on vpn kill switches is making a lot of services unusable. Not having google play services hasnt been so bad, but some things just cant work. Staying ahead of the curve is requiring constant adaptation.
Im available tomorrow or maybe sometime next week, send me a calander invite.
Click clack away at trying to break free of the system, this weekend i learned coin control with wasabi, im working on getting Jam/joinmarket to work, and im going to take my vaultwarden/bitwarden up a notch. Play some videogames. Work on the house mostly, paint, clean, dishes, dishes, dishes. Play with the dogs. Fantasize about the end of the government.
Raspberry pi seems to be having these issues, could just be start9
Hopefully we get to a point where nodes are plug and play, wallet apps will have a setup that has you scan a QR code printed on the node and itll set itself up.
Everything we do is so tightly related to self custodial bitcoin, the ultimate trust/reputation, its anathma to use an exchange for custody or transactions, bitcoin lives bip to bip and nostr nip to nip, we dont get giddy about new exchanges with nice features by famous people. In johns own case he decided to stay on the X personality cult, which seems to inevitability lead to letting elon run his life; there is a quickness that we burn people down for violating our confidence, Jack Dorsey would be gone in 10 minutes if we had even plausible evidence he was working against us.
There are people i think johns complaint applies too, that would be shitcoiners.
According to the macro nerds, never. So probably soon.
What is he in to? Based on this response alone id ask him if he knows how money works now, does he know how dollars are only created through debt? If dollars are created through debt, there is always an interest rate, meaning the system has huge deflationary pressures that have to be held back with increasongly more debt/inflation. You end up with a system very dependent on new lending all the time, and when there is a shock to the market, even low interest rates cant keep it up, so bailouts, quantative easing, etc. The monetary system becomes a bloated monster that is intentionally opaque to obscure how the average person gets fucked, look at the time-price of goods, look at wages compared to inflation pre and post 1971, wtfhappenedin1971.com is useful for some of these charts. Bitcoin is simple, there are miners are competing internationally for cheap energy that is globally distributed, they want a share of the truly scarce amount of bitcoin; there are users who enjoy the highest level of monetary assurances of any monetary system, who have the most secure property rights in the world, they can use it for trade with no trusted intermediary anywhere in the world.