After years of stagnation of my YouTube channel, and sometimes losing subscribers when I released a video (LOL), it was really nice to see this for a change.
It may not be a lot compared to some other big channels out there, but it's a lot to me.
Thank you, everyone. 🩵
One of the most common comments I’ve seen is “when will altcoins pump?”
Once ETH takes off, then altcoins will surge.
That will prob happen in 1-2 months.
It may time with QT ending and QE beginning, as Benjamin Cowen suggests. I think there is merit to this idea.
Polymarket is giving a 100% chance of QT ending before May. (See image)
Also, M2 takes off at the end of April/beginning of May. That may also time with this transition to looser monetary policy.
Stars are aligning for a long overdue altseason to begin in 1-2 months, at a rough estimate.
Global M2 Money Supply vs Bitcoin
BTC continues to track the "mini rally".
Not much change daily, but some people want to keep their eye on it, so here is today's chart!
Learn more by watching the video below if this is a new subject for you. It will catch you up to speed.
Someone wanted to see the Global M2 Money Supply charted against GOLD.
M2 and Gold visibly have a very tight correlation in the recent several years. Interestingly, it does not require much offset to match it up. The chart shown has no offset at all.
This would indicate that both gold and Global M2 act as a predictor to what BTC is going to do. (M2 and gold move first, BTC makes that move later)
It also indicates that Global M2 money finds its way quickly into gold and more slowly (about a 70-110 day delay) into risk assets such as BTC and stocks.
Based on this observation, my guess is that the further down the risk curve go you, the longer the delay from Global M2 into that asset. Makes sense.
It looks to me like BTC has at least 3 more days until the top of that mini rally (see yellow box in middle).
Enjoy it. Some much needed relief!
(M2 Global supply with a 107-day offset seems to fit best currently. Blast off date estimated around April 30)
Here's the same chart, but also including the S&P 500.
Is BTC in the "Mini rally that fails?" (see yellow box in image)
So far, the price is acting like it.
See my video below for a full explainer.
Global M2 Money Supply predicts Bitcoin's next move.
We find which offset is best!
Get the M2 script for TradingView here:
Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC
Predictive Correlation
- Two Scenarios -
Chart #1 (70 day offset)
🔸 Blast off Mar ~25.
Chart #2 (105 day offset)
🔹 Strongest mathematical correlation to BTC price movements (see this post: x.com/ColinTCrypto/s… )
🔹Says we have a mini rally around Mar 9-16, then a drop back to lows, with the real blast off occuring later.
🔹Blast off Apr ~30.
My job is not to dictate to you which scenario is right-- I'm just providing you with data. The big take-away is that a large global influx of liquidity is on the horizon.
First image credit: @Croesus_BTC
Second image credit: Bitcoin24 Model (seen in @saylor's slide deck here: x.com/corybates1895/…)
Bitcoin today Bitcoin in 2045
Here’s something really cool.
@MarnyMarek compared 3 scenarios of Global M2 vs BTC
Chart #1 - 105 day shift
Chart #2 - 75 day shift
Chart #3 - 46 day shift
On each chart, the level of mathematical correlation is displayed on different time frames of the last 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, etc.
Based on this, the math says a 105 day shift is the most accurate of the three.
Implications: This 105-shift chart says the run up happens in the beginning of May.
I guess we’ll find out, based of if/when we see a big run up in BTC. Will it begin around Mar 25? Or early May?
I like sharing other peoples’ creations, as people create some really cool stuff.
Stocks & crypto crashing. Timeline in shambles. Fear left and right. And to top it off, the U.S. economy is legitimately overdue for a recession.
There’s a ton of indicators that point both directions (bearish and bullish). It can be kind of confusing what to make of it!
I am personally hinging my hopes on the Global M2 Money Supply for the next couple of months, as it shows a strong uptrend.
Furthermore, Global M2 just put in a new local high, continuing its uptrend further.
Will this be right in hindsight? I can’t tell you. Global M2 has about an 82% correlation to BTC’s moves (see chart #2). I guess I’m taking those odds. I’m not telling you to. It could fail. There’s no *guarantee* prices will head up. There’s always that 20% chance they don’t. Know this, going into it. ALL analysts and all traders get calls wrong. It’s part of the game.
Let’s hope this Global Money Supply is showing us what’s to come. We should know in a few weeks.
I’ll continue monitoring this closely and sharing its developments.
$71k - $73k is still the major support
Actually, I’d say it’s more like $67k - $73k. But nobody wants to hear that.
$71k-$73k is the next major Bitcoin support level
The Bitcoin drop we have seen from $109k to $78k is a 29% drop.
A 35% drop would take BTC down to $71k. That is not unheard of for a bitcoin correction during a bull run.
That would also coincide with the top of major support.
