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Jake Woodhouse
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Dad, Husband, Investor, MC, & Podcaster | Discussing financial, humanistic, & intellectual investments | Follow to future-proof your happiness, health, & wealth

HODLing Bitcoin is so much easier said than done

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

GM.

I'm bullish on bitcoin, and I think a lot of people overthink it.

One of my favorite metrics is the market value vs realized value ratio. The realized value is basically just the on-chain cost basis. The value of UTXOs at the dollar price during which they last moved between wallets, which often means the time people pulled them from exchanges or deposited them to exchanges.

A relatively small amount of marginal buying can push up the market value by a lot. Like how if you buy one house on a street, it can boost the estimated price of all houses on that street even though only one of them traded hands. But when market value becomes stretched relative to cost basis, it means that part of the market value is kind of illusory. We don't *really* know what houses on that street are worth if only one of them traded hands recently and thus liquidity was low. Over time, as more houses on that street trade hands and we have more price points, the estimated value of the street becomes more real. The same thing for bitcoin; as more bitcoin trades hands at certain levels, it starts to make that level "real" compared to how real we should consider it when it just touches a certain level for a little while with limited volume.

Right now, bitcoin is at an all-time high in its realized price, i.e. cost basis.

Back when bitcoin was poking over $60k in April 2021, the cost basis for the network was only about $350 billion. Now, at the same market price, the cost basis approaches $650 billion, or more than twice as high. The marginal bitcoin has traded hands and moved between wallets at much higher prices than years ago, even though the market price is about the same. In other words, these levels have been truly liquid and been consummated by the market more than they were back in 2021, and thus the price is more robust at this level than back then.

The launch of the spot ETFs pulled forward some excitement this year, and so we've been in this big consolidation since March. But even in that time period from March to the present, the on-chain cost basis increased from like $520 billion to $640 billion, and so price discovery and progress is being made despite the ongoing price chop.

As the network builds a bigger and more solid base like it has been doing, it can set the stage for the next major breakout. The network looks healthy to me.

Great insight. Thanks for sharing. Checkmate is often all over this metric, which is one of the reasons I like his content as well (and am a paying subscriber)

Chopsolidation is very healthy... If a bit boring! The key: staying focused on the strategy, and not getting distracted by shiny objects along the way

The strong arm of the state can be a faceless beast at times

Full "computer says no" type characters

F*ck the hates

Over the past 2 weeks I've started building a new 2nd brain...

It's something that I've trialled many times, but with the help of a mentor, I am designing a new system I am excited about

In particular it's about optimising for creativity AND productivity

- catch all ideas and record in Notion

- spend up to 2 mins jotting the thought down

- then do nothing at all about it

- each week review for 30 mins all ideas

- then file them away (fuck yeah, fuck that, maybe later)

This week here is a list of all the ideas I came up with:

- What happens if we buy a business in Byron bay?

- Write article about BMA

- Become a Nostr expert

- Invest in vc funds

- Start a bitcoin bank (Solving the wealth problem IS the problem

- I want to do deep work. Not have schedule open to random calls. Truly focus

- Write article about investing “alpha”

- I want to be a venture capitalist

- Delete distracting shit off phone. Diacipliend morning creation routine

- Long form podcast. “Best”

- Build a Hormozi style grand slam offer

- Use Fountain to find the most boosted podcast section - then creat clip

- Morning routine. How can I improve it?

- Ai scripts for jake present short form video

- Nostr native podcast clip / shorts client

- Buy a map of the world. Where to live?

- Nostr media co that matches donations

- Vc history research

- Train an AI with all the Bitcoin content I’ve consumed

- Learn about AI in relation to content creation

- Get debt vs bitcoin to buy a house

- Mindset work. Not compare & dispair

- Write a book

- Create first . Consume second.

- Build a publishing machine that uses nostr first, but cross posts to existing platforms as well

- Build a nostr client that actually works for a podcaster

- a bitcoin backed mortgage product

- Long form podcast

- High ticket coaching program for HNW on Bitcoin journey

- Create a nostr user protocol & content schedule

- A Nostr focused Angel Investing syndicate

I am spending 30 mins now reviewing them, culling them, indeed what we're calling this is "Dream-Killing"

The intention is to whittle down to THE ONE THING that I have to focus on above all else.

How do you figure out what to work on?

Nice. Always good to hear people have had similar experiences

I couldn't agree more. I think the first step might be to get something that augments Substack, and others, rather than replaces.

Ie existing creators can share their existing content creation workflow here on Nostr

They can have a play around, start to experience it etc

But then again, the flip side, which I am just thinking through: focus on building tools for people that already got kicked off legacy media platforms.

They have a far bigger problem to solve and therefore NEED

Always a few ways to peel the onion

Information doesn't travel evenly through markets. This is another great example.

Slowly, over time, user will try out the experience... Maybe X will be banned in their country. Maybe they hear from a friend.

I am really coming around to the idea the purple pill is a trojan horse for the orange pill

Resounding impression, which I love, is that people enjoy Nostr because of how they FEEL

- less anxious

- less angry

- less addicted

- more inspired

- more creative

- more insights

Frankly it's changed over time, as often other people's mentorship is just a reflection of what worked for them, rather than what's right for you

So if I really think about it: don't be afraid to be yourself

Lol. Rapping not even close to being in the wheelhouse... So sorry to let you down on that one

Thanks! Really appreciate the support