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#asknostr

Open for other opinions.

Isn't the trade war between China and USA a war of production of basic needs vs a bullshit job economic megabubble?

Like: USA threatens to not buy steel, computerchips and so on from china and has a population that is already crying how bad everyone is economicly.

And China maby stops importing software, which they already have their own doubles of it and are happily decoupling. Plus their population is not allowed to cry about personal economy. (Or they loose points)

China also has its housing bubble and probably other houses of cards, that will collaps at some point, since they allow less and less feedbackloops to improve their processes.

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Discussion

cryptowolf 9mo ago

agreed with everything except the housing bubble in China.

They have ghost towns of newly built condos that are empty.

Seems like the opposite problem of the "west" where homelessness is rampant...

🇵🇸 whoever loves Digit 9mo ago

If our leaders are secretly smart, the trade war is just a way to force people to accept higher prices and less access to far away stuff because people are too retarded to mitigate climate change on their own

But our leaders seem pretty retarded so the trade war is probably just a different way to accelerate climate change

Viktor Vsk 9mo ago

Small addition: I don’t think Chinese are “not allowed to cry” in general but yeah, population under autocratic regime causes less problems for geopolitics definitely

But the main point I think is that its all relative: last 50 (1960-2010) years were rather happy for the US citizens and rather bad for Chinese, so it would be easier for Chinese to tighten their belts than for US citizens, I think thats the most important factor considering “who can hold bluff longer”

freemymind 🇨🇭 9mo ago

Yes this was maby a little over the topmwith crying. But you could not go outside and hold up a banner saying, the economy is bad without getting in prison or even a camp.

And chinese did have a great rise of the middle class. For this it was for a long time (in the time you mention included) the marketwonder, how a country can bi communist but econommically strong.

But it is also clear that through the political structure ever chinese citizens knows, that there is no other way to go then the way with the communist party. And as long as all power is within the party, it seems the could stem a economic crisis. But this is not something the modern chinese society was tested on. (In my heart I beleave, that chinese peoplemwill live free in the future 🙏😇)

Viktor Vsk 9mo ago

I’m not a Chinese expert but I believe not all of them would like to live free in the modern (western) definition of this word. Also, for an average 40 year old Chinese citizen I believe his life right now is so good compared to what have been to his childhood that they would gladly stand 50% lifestyle decrease knowing that they are attacked by the US and start getting allies they never thought they would ally with

Contrary to an average 40 years old US citizen whos life is 1980s was pretty darn good compared to today

freemymind 🇨🇭 9mo ago

Yes defnitly they had an improved quality of live. But it is hard to tell if the communist party is able to keep power, when the opposite happens. Since most systems work well, when most people see an improvement in their live. I myself would neighter bet for or against the communist party falling apart on economic decrease. But I would personally welcome a colapse of the suppressive surveilance state in china. Independent of what kind of state they will have. Since I feel surveiled souls have less potential to flourish and shine as beautiful as free souls. And this I think all over the world.

krisl 9mo ago

I don't try to find sense in all this 😅 Historicaly, empires that are nearing a collapse make more and more ridiculous moves...

But if you really look close, its just another tax on the people. They might outrage you with 60% tarrifs, then they lower them to 30% and you feel happy and grateful.

IMO looking at the medium term China wins out of this, just based on some basic fundamentals: productivity, size of the population, populatiin health...etc

freemymind 🇨🇭 9mo ago

I do not know if china wins something out of it. Since their economy also depends on buyers. And currently they are loosing buyers. I mean already before this year.

But to me it would be astonishing, when the USA's wealth would not shrink as the aftermath of this tarrifs game. I think the US will just loose influence and this is the end of the tarriffs story.

krisl 9mo ago

I mean it wins in the sense that it doesn't completely burn up in flames 😅 Nobody really wins this, we are headed for some dark ages 😅🥲

freemymind 🇨🇭 9mo ago

Sad but true. But I think we just lack proper knowledge what is the current state in china. Since there is no freedom of the press, it is almost impossible to have good prognostics of what they are capable of.

But I think current decisions ask for more war. Since authoritarians like to go to war, when every thing else semes not to work well as propaganda.

krisl 9mo ago

That is true, I lack that knowledge. Im basing my opinion mostly on the fact that so many things are produced in china, making me believe that their industrial engine is much stronger. Unfortunatelly all this leads to more war like you said :/

freemymind 🇨🇭 9mo ago

Yes they are producing a lot. But they have almost double the population of the USA and Europe combined. And they have had a properly working system during a time of fastly growing economy through more international relations and marketfreedoms. When they take more and more freedoms from the chinese market and their population, I assume this economy will fail. (I am very strongly convinced, that economic growth is based on the wealth of the middle class. And the middle class bases its wealth on individual freedoms. )

Freedoms have been improved for many individuals within China in the last 20 years. It is not the same freedoms we are fighting in Europe or the USA. It is basic freedoms, to live in a house with improved standards, not to suffer from the harsh winters they have, getting enough food and learn to read.

Those freedoms Xi Jingping brought the chinese land population over the last decade. He invested a lot in country side societies and this broght a huge economic growth.

When China now will reverse some of these freedoms again, I do not see how China would not also reverse their economic growth. This is my analysis.