What is the meaning of such a probability?
It makes no sense to say a thing is 30% likely to be true when that thing is just one event and it's either true or not true.
Discussion
yeah. they’re talking more about something like personal belief or how emotional one is to believe one way or another.
there aren’t degrees of truth. it’s either true or false.
Probability is one of two numbers needed to deal with verifiable future expectations and economic valuations.
Absolutely meaningful as it is the trigger for human action.
Coin flip is 50/50, but it will never land half heads or half tails. It will be 100 one and zero the other And yet still it’s 50/50.
Is it? I don't think coinflip is always 50/50, it will depend on the coin, the tosser, the wind, many other variables.
And yet it makes sense to say it's 50/50 because you can an unlimited number of coinflips with variables that change so much it ends up being 50/50 in the long run, or so we hope.
that's true, and probability is a fiction in that sense, and if we knew every variable, we would know how it would land with certainty, but I’m happy to do coin flips with you if you give me 60 sats for every heads, and I give you 40 sats for every tails, given we don’t know all the variables.