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I’m often tempted to list all the “conspiracy theories” out there and put a percentage on how likely I think they are to be true.

Like covid came from a lab (too obvious) is 99.99%. The moon landing was faked (20%), etc. We don’t know very much for sure, and these percentages would change as more information comes out.

Of course, putting numbers on it creates a false impression of precision when there is none. My take on the moon landing being fake is “plausible but not likely.” I just made up 20 percent. It might as well be 5 percent or 30 percent. I would be surprised if it were ascertainably verified as fake. But I would not be shocked — at least not anymore.

You will take criticism from both sides for doing this too. The normies will be like, LOL, you nut job, you really think there’s a 20 percent chance the moon landing was faked!

And then other people will be like, LOL, you credulous normie, you think there’s an 80 percent chance we had that tech in 1969 and haven’t been back since!

I don’t claim my numbers are correct. The only thing I know for sure is it’s not zero percent and not 100 either.

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Discussion

mike 11mo ago

At the quantum level, moon landings both happened and didn't happen depending on who observed them 😂

DasFrettchen 11mo ago

the result collapses to either one when observed. as long as you don't look into it it remains probabilistic.

halalmoney 11mo ago

https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/637a2f1da5d2fc1976c14ec00f8eae4015afe99bb2554f1d537d0086a169dd8f/0433ccd9249e3add0a521d8f20b9033cf9bc8061ec952410dc5d2bb51265982a.webp

mike 11mo ago

😂

Raw 11mo ago

Make ittttt. The discussions will be juicy.

Pinguimdarelva⚡ 11mo ago

O beneficio da dúvida

398ja 11mo ago

This is a good use-case for prediction markets, actually.

Yuri Yerofeyev 11mo ago

When predictions markets on Nostr?

fiatjaf 11mo ago

What is the meaning of such a probability?

It makes no sense to say a thing is 30% likely to be true when that thing is just one event and it's either true or not true.

hello 🪺 11mo ago

yeah. they’re talking more about something like personal belief or how emotional one is to believe one way or another.

there aren’t degrees of truth. it’s either true or false.

Hu₿ertus the Austrian 11mo ago

Probability is one of two numbers needed to deal with verifiable future expectations and economic valuations.

Absolutely meaningful as it is the trigger for human action.

Chris Liss 11mo ago

Coin flip is 50/50, but it will never land half heads or half tails. It will be 100 one and zero the other And yet still it’s 50/50.

fiatjaf 11mo ago

Is it? I don't think coinflip is always 50/50, it will depend on the coin, the tosser, the wind, many other variables.

And yet it makes sense to say it's 50/50 because you can an unlimited number of coinflips with variables that change so much it ends up being 50/50 in the long run, or so we hope.

Chris Liss 11mo ago

that's true, and probability is a fiction in that sense, and if we knew every variable, we would know how it would land with certainty, but I’m happy to do coin flips with you if you give me 60 sats for every heads, and I give you 40 sats for every tails, given we don’t know all the variables.

frphank 11mo ago

> you think there’s an 80 percent chance we had that tech in 1969 and haven’t been back since!

yes? and?

Chris Liss 11mo ago

and what?

𝕞ptf 11mo ago

Well for some you can go back to first principles and assert if the claim is true or not. (This is what you learn when you study the trivium).

Ike 11mo ago

Covid coming from a lab rests on the assumption that viruses as stated by "scientists" even exist. More odds to calculate.

vinney...axkl 11mo ago

I'd like to read this. Write it!