Probability wise the easiest way to determine this would be to use the Delta which incorporates current implied volatility.

I’m on mobile so I don’t have my Options trading app up to go that far out in time.

But basically the 20 Delta which is ~68% expected move proxy on the bell curve, or 1σ on the Puts and Calls of the BTC Futures contract (perpetual) would place BTC’s expected move to be

~ $83,150 to $155,750

If implied vol changes (which it does as it is not a constant) then the expected move will also change and could expand to a 2σ or 3σ move.