What are the chances of Bitcoin being at $450k usd in 12 months from now?
#asknostr
Discussion
Trillion dollar homes 12 months from now ๐
According to nostr:nprofile1qqsg2zqd8wkhpnxu6lm5c2dyfa2mhpwte57apjae2ldp6g2mmwf3ypqpz9mhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejj7v5unzt nostr:nprofile1qqsp4lsvwn3aw7zwh2f6tcl6249xa6cpj2x3yuu6azaysvncdqywxmgprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvq9n8wumn8ghj7enfd36x2u3wdehhxarj9emkjmn99ah8qatzx9e8gmr3vdsnsu3kv96hjcthx4hr26pnds6ngv3jv3kngumj0y6kg7nxv4jngd3exen8zefcwvm8zem4v34hxdmydf6xvuelvfex7ctyvdshxapaw3e82egpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejs5mzk3a and nostr:nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpz4mhxue69uhhwmm59eek7anzd96zu6r0wd6qz9thwden5te0wahhgtnnd9sk6um5wghxxmmdqyf8wumn8ghj7am0wsh82arcduhx7mn9cea889 it's within the realm of possibility.
Also according to me. But I'm just a random pleb.
Totally plausible. And then back to $215k
$420,069 or I delete this post.
(Wait, I canโt.)
๐๐๐
Why can you not delete it?
Because it's nostr, lol. Not all relays honor deletion requests.
I do not know. I would rather not use such relays. Or why would one?
Iโm not sure how many honor deletion. Not a lot.
Almost everything I requested to delete was always deleted. Why would one not honor it? Freeing up space is not bad for anyone.
Ever read that part in nostr:npub1sn0wdenkukak0d9dfczzeacvhkrgz92ak56egt7vdgzn8pv2wfqqhrjdv9โs book where he explains how data on storage devices isnโt really deleted? Itโs kind of like that, but a more transparent way of illustrating how things you post on the internet are not guaranteed to be removed when you want them to be.
Yes. But one has to count the networkeffect. A person with 100mio followers can assume that every post is copied screenshotted or something. An account with only a million followers, can probably say that there is still the possibility any comment could be fotograpfed. But an account of 10k followers or less is probably very unlikely someone would care to screenshot every shitpost.
And this with snowden has nothing to do with this. Snowden is concerned about state surveillance. So he talks there rather about technical implementations of deletion. But this does not matter, when the owner of the storage has no intrest in recovering the information.
Maybeโฆ but Sub 200k is my gut. I went through the 2021 highs/lows and I bet it does the same thing. Goes way high and pulls waay back q4 2025
Last bullrun was cut short. Ftx contributed to not hitting 100k last cycle. So we all afraid now to put such a high target. I think we could hit 450k. But I don't think the ETF holders will continue to hold when they see 3x or above. These are people who are used to 10% / year. 300% in one year, I just don't see them holding. So maybe we only make 200k. Too hard to say. To be totally honest I don't know, I can't say with confidence at all.
If countries get involved, Argentina, Trump win - US start buying, then other big countries join in, then we could blast past 450k.
Come on Trump... you can do it โโโ
It's non zero.
10% would be my gut feel as it implies we reach & sustain that level.
25% chance we hit it in the next 18 months.
Def non zero I agree. Small probability in my mind
Very happy to be wrong!
Probability wise the easiest way to determine this would be to use the Delta which incorporates current implied volatility.
Iโm on mobile so I donโt have my Options trading app up to go that far out in time.
But basically the 20 Delta which is ~68% expected move proxy on the bell curve, or 1ฯ on the Puts and Calls of the BTC Futures contract (perpetual) would place BTCโs expected move to be
~ $83,150 to $155,750
If implied vol changes (which it does as it is not a constant) then the expected move will also change and could expand to a 2ฯ or 3ฯ move.
The above is based on current volatility and target date Oct 25
Thanks for sharing. I think that range you mention is much more achievable. What's interesting from the commentary I heard today, was that the China mining ban in 2021 seriously dampened that blow off top. If that's true, then a lot of the technical stuff is undershooting this bull run...
๐ฏ
hard to tell, Bitcoin always does what people expect the least
I least expect $2M Bitcoin in 2 months.....
50/50 ๐
I think itโs possible, but I think itโs also possible that a Honda Civic will cost $450k 12 months from now. ๐