1. Yield curve inversion
2. US Leading Indicators
3. S&P 500
Discussion
Conference Board LEI
what is LEI?
Leading Economic Index: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
1. Yield curve inversion (12-18 months) ✔️
2. US LEI (3-6 months) ✔️
3. SP500 correction (3-6 months) ...
A recession within a few months is a very distinct possibility. It's unlikely that it will be officially recognised going into an election... but a slowdown in Q3 US GDP growth and a negative Q4 is highly probable, with negative Q1 2025 confirming it.
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