Can the US apply export controls to an open source project?

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Is this a serious question

Yes

I think the same Wassenaar Arrangement holds for US here, as for other members. From what I understand: crypto restrictions do not apply on publicly available works.

I am not a lawyer, so check for yourself, but that should give a hint in the right directions.

They did that before, for encryption. Nothing stops them to do it again.

Boa sorte com essa merda 🫠

Any project that used encryption was once considered under arms export by the US, so they once could, now, doubt it but would not be surprised.

Yes

They can, they do and Microsoft comply with it. GitHub is the Achilles' heel of FOSS.

They've tried in the past and failed. Think the Adam Back RSA t-shirt in the 90s

They used sanctions to kick Russian's from being able to contribute to the Linux Kernel.

There is no reason that couldn't be decreed, but they already lost that battle before. I think they'd rather avoid embarrassment to the USA brand by not having the power to enforce it.