Without any changes, what percent of people will have no choice but to use paper Bitcoin?

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None, but also all. I think Bitcoin already scales just fine.

Like 75%

With that math, that would mean that ~2B participants could do one on chain tx, on average, once every ~10 years.

lol wow. So it has to be over 90%

800M participants, once every 4 years on average.

Yeah bitcoin still needs a better scaling solution.

Like Lightning Network?

Not enough sats for everyone in the world to run a lightning node

Not everyone has to, your parent, relative, friend, community, or more realisitically, your bank or a private company or worst your government, will run one that most people can use.

The choice that you must not use an official, state approved, channel is already a win, even if most will still do us state approved ones.

The majority. On chain bitcoin will be incredibly rare.

Lot of “room” on base chain and LN for new participants currently. No clue at full adoption. But majority would have to use custodial. Long way from that reality though.

Ark is a layer 2 with almost the same semantics as Bitcoin. People can self custody ark vtxos