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With that math, that would mean that ~2B participants could do one on chain tx, on average, once every ~10 years.

lol wow. So it has to be over 90%

800M participants, once every 4 years on average.

Yeah bitcoin still needs a better scaling solution.

Like Lightning Network?

Not enough sats for everyone in the world to run a lightning node

Not everyone has to, your parent, relative, friend, community, or more realisitically, your bank or a private company or worst your government, will run one that most people can use.

The choice that you must not use an official, state approved, channel is already a win, even if most will still do us state approved ones.