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So, lets say you want to DCA into #Bitcoin but would like to know what to expect based on the history. Yes, yes I know. History does not repeat and we can't make reliable predictions about the future based on the past - but what else do we have?

Anyway I have made a simulation, actually 100k simulations to see what is the distribution of results if one starts DCAing into Bitcoin at a random point in the past and what is the result after random number of days.

And this is the result

X axis shows how many days you DCA and Y axis show what is the return on invested capital.

Remember there is 100.000 simulations or dots on this image and the distribution is truly amazing.

I have so many questions about this.

Why are there orderly empty spaces in the graph that do not have any dots?

Why does it look like a wave a surfer would kill for?

WHY DOES IT NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING RANDOM

Anyway if you are interested in numerical statistical results here it is

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Discussion

Platinum Bear 1y ago

Image 2 does not make any sense to me. I know no framework to understand what it is saying. However, image 1 tracks with the longer you invest in an asset the more the return stabilizes or becomes flat. Which would be a good asset to invest in.

I would have thought the % returns would have been higher because of the CAGR of BTC.

plebeian 1y ago

Disregard rebalancing statistics on second image it is for some additional simulations I made but the ROI distributions on second image shows in how many cases ROI is less than 1 (meaning still in loss) and in how many cases ROI is higher than 1, 2 and 5

Platinum Bear 1y ago

I am curious on what this would look like for other assets like gold, platinum, and stocks.

plebeian 1y ago

Here is gold but "only" 10k simulations

Platinum Bear 1y ago

Wow! That’s crazy! y-axis…night and day difference.

plebeian 1y ago

Yeah you need to be persistent and stubborn for a long time to get much less compared to Bitcoin

Platinum Bear 1y ago

That’s how you convert a goldbug.

Showing the DCA of an asset over a long period of time. Shows the strength of an asset because it simple removes the “timing” aspect of investing from the equation.

If you did charts like that over a wide spectrum of assets. Even for people who have a low risk tolerance comparing it to even something like to the sp500 broader index. You could orange pill so many people.

a source familiar with the matter 1y ago

Why would this convert a goldbug?

Gold is real and Bitcoin is not. Who cares about fiat price?