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So, lets say you want to DCA into #Bitcoin but would like to know what to expect based on the history. Yes, yes I know. History does not repeat and we can't make reliable predictions about the future based on the past - but what else do we have?

Anyway I have made a simulation, actually 100k simulations to see what is the distribution of results if one starts DCAing into Bitcoin at a random point in the past and what is the result after random number of days.

And this is the result

X axis shows how many days you DCA and Y axis show what is the return on invested capital.

Remember there is 100.000 simulations or dots on this image and the distribution is truly amazing.

I have so many questions about this.

Why are there orderly empty spaces in the graph that do not have any dots?

Why does it look like a wave a surfer would kill for?

WHY DOES IT NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING RANDOM

Anyway if you are interested in numerical statistical results here it is

Platinum Bear 1y ago

I am curious on what this would look like for other assets like gold, platinum, and stocks.

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Discussion

plebeian 1y ago

Here is gold but "only" 10k simulations

Platinum Bear 1y ago

Wow! That’s crazy! y-axis…night and day difference.

plebeian 1y ago

Yeah you need to be persistent and stubborn for a long time to get much less compared to Bitcoin

Platinum Bear 1y ago

That’s how you convert a goldbug.

Showing the DCA of an asset over a long period of time. Shows the strength of an asset because it simple removes the “timing” aspect of investing from the equation.

If you did charts like that over a wide spectrum of assets. Even for people who have a low risk tolerance comparing it to even something like to the sp500 broader index. You could orange pill so many people.

a source familiar with the matter 1y ago

Why would this convert a goldbug?

Gold is real and Bitcoin is not. Who cares about fiat price?