I think everything you say is reasonable long-term if historical trends continue...

But as for the exposing yourself to loss on the scale of minutes comment is kind of silly. I don't think short term is the same. For example there are years, months, weeks, and days where Monero outperforms Bitcoin. Most of 2020 and all of the year of 2022 you would have made money if you swapped into Monero (it shows this in your own chart). The last 5 months straight (before September) Monero outperformed Bitcoin this year.

For swapping short term it is anyones guess which will do better. Sometimes you will be up, sometimes down. It pretty much cancels out on short time scales.

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Bitcoin makes all its upward movements in just 9 days a year, it is statistically proven, even less days, if one of those days you are in Monero you have screwed it.

If you mostly save with Bitcoin and have a small stash of Monero that you are constantly using up and replenishing periodically, your exposure when this happens is fairly negligible

I'm not telling you to do this. I'm just saying it really is not a big deal in my experience.

I experiment with the tools you mentioned too like ecash, lightning, and coinjoins. Each one has it's own advantages and downsides. I like the simplicity yet strong privacy of Monero personally and that is what I use the most for transactions.