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I've been doing some analysis regarding the earliest date at which quantum computers may pose a legitimate threat to #bitcoin.

(Of course, when they pose a threat to bitcoin, they will also pose a threat to, basically, the entire internet!)

Looking at current growth in quantum computing power (measured in number of "qubits") we can see it's following an exponential curve...

If we assume 20M qubits (with decent error correction) are needed to break modern cryptography and extrapolate the rate of progression, we get to 2041 (17 years from now) as the earliest date at which a quantum computer could crack a bitcoin address.

Full video on this to follow soon!

#quantumcomputing #bitcoin

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Discussion

Des Imoto マキシ 1y ago

However, computing power rises on both sides….

Casey R 1y ago

Not sure I follow?

Des Imoto マキシ 1y ago

If „they’re“ using a „quantum“ computer the #Bitcoin network will use a neural network of „quantum“ computers. Exponentially more powerful than theirs. Hashrate, difficulty levels and crypto algorithms will all evolve with the increase in computing power. Increase in computing power goes both ways.

Casey R 1y ago

I understand what you're saying. And I agree. Bitcoin will likely be prepared for this. SHA256 is already quantum resistant, what needs to be changed is ECDSA encryption used in wallet creation

The_Justifyer 1y ago

Have you considered the exponential susceptibility to errors and the availability of quantum-safe addresses?