GM 🫂 's

Rate my reply to my old friend asking me about Bitcoin:

Hey xxxxx

Nice to hear from you.

I am definitely not a financial advisor.

Can I suggest you read my book, it will tell you a lot. It is important you understand what Bitcoin is before you invest anything into it.

Firstly, Bitcoin is not like anything else you have ever experienced in your life. Everything else is based on trust and there is a higher authority you can always turn to.

If you loose access to your bank account, you can walk in to a branch with your ID papers and within half an hour or so, your account access will be restored by them. The bank control your account and the money held within it.

If you loose your passport or driving license, the government can issue you new ones. They control your identity.

If you get locked out of your house, you can call a locksmith and they will break in, legally, for you.

Bitcoin is different, it is permissionless and trustless. Nobody can stop you spending your money and you can send it to anyone anywhere in the world instantly without having to trust a third party to authorise payment for you.

By that same token, if you make a mistake and send it to the wrong address or if you loose the keys that secure your Bitcoin, it is gone, nobody can help you. You need to understand and be comfortable with that.

As for Bitcoin as a store of value, this is the first stage that all new Bitcoiners go through, but if you do it properly, it will eventually be the least significant feature.

However, as for Bitcoin price cycles. Every 4 years the supply is automatically halved. This happened on the 20th April this year, you probably saw we were in Warsaw at a halving party. It happened at 3:09am European time, so we were asleep.

Nothing actually happens for around 6 months of the halving, but from 6 - 18 months after the halving, the price rises significantly to adapt to the new supply and scarcity.

So, from the start of November the price has started to rise and will continue to do so in a saw tooth pattern for around the next year.

The price rise often overshoots the new natural price level and so expect a crash around the end of next year, it will be significant and will take a year or so to recover, but will eventually settle to a new price.

In 4 years time, around April 2028, the cycle will happen again.

Bitcoin is not a short term investment, don’t invest unless you are prepared to hold for a minimum of 4 years.

Holding bitcoin for 8 years can produce generational wealth.

The three core tenets of Bitcoin are:

Not your keys, not your coins - in other words, don’t leave them on exchanges

Don’t trust, verify - which leads to:

Do your own research

Study Bitcoin, it will give you back far more than you can imagine.