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The manufacturing re-shoring trend from China to the US is something I never thought I’d see happen. But what started as a trickle, has turned into a river. The sheer amount of companies announcing withdrawal from China and plans to build plants in the US is just crazy.

The upshot is, this is going to really change the nature of America’s trade balance with the world, which is going to have major geopolitical repercussions in the years to come.

The downshot, is this potentially increases the risk of kinetic conflict between China and the US as the decreasing economic interdependence also loses its moderating influence.

Mike Brock 2y ago

If you’re Xi Jinping, and you’re staring down the coming population collapse from the hangover of the one-child policy, and you’re seeing the prospects of America starting to reassert a manufacturing prowess, you might feel like you need to move fast if you’re going to seize Taiwan and get away with it. Because it might actually become increasingly difficult as time wears on. That’s the fear.

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Discussion

Modus 2y ago

"Downshot"

jasperc2011 2y ago

If we build multiple foundries in the US, what do you think the likelihood is the US actually intervenes? I know those take time to construct but as time goes on it becomes less and less in our interest to assist.