My base case is some sort of national fragmentation in the US before 2030. Basically a continuation of the process underway now with Florida, Texas, etc.

I’m betting there will be a fiscal crisis in California, New York, Illinois, etc where they’ll seek and receive a national bailout. The fiscally responsable states will object and create Tea Party 2.0.

I could imagine Florida saying its citizens should pay income tax to the state government and not to the Federal government, or something like that.

I don’t see how the fiscal union remains if / when the national government makes political payments to aligned states and takes from unaligned states.

I feel so lucky I don't have to live in a horrible failed state like the US.

Bitcoin obviously doesn't fix stupid

"If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?"

-Solzhenitsyn

IMO greater evil is most commonly the fruit of misconception about what is good (or necessary). I think a key part of the "battle" against "evil" is to constantly interrogate one's own ideals and methods.